When clearing: thousands of enterprises and scarce professional capital

The word "zombie enterprise" frequently appears in various official documents over the years, but for most of the public, it is just an image vocabulary in various policy documents. But when it comes to reality, zombie enterprises are related to industry, employment, efficiency, and the disposal of trillions of problematic assets behind them, which is "a huge burden" for governments at all levels, so let's focus on this and send it.

Introduction: From a macro perspective, the scale of problem assets is trillions. Such a huge figure, I'm afraid it is difficult to get a result through litigation and auction. More professional restructuring capital may become the key to promote and solve the problem.

The process of clearing out "zombie enterprises" will be further accelerated.

On February 4th, 65438, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 1 1 departments jointly issued the Notice on Further Improving the Debt Disposal of Zombie Enterprises and De-capacity Enterprises (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), demanding that the debts of zombie enterprises and de-capacity enterprises be actively and steadily disposed of and the liquidation of zombie enterprises be accelerated. Before the end of 2020,

According to the relevant data of 20 16 of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, there are 204 1 family of "zombie enterprises" and extremely poor enterprises that need special treatment from the central enterprises, involving assets of 3 trillion yuan, which is just a combing at the central level. 2 1 Century Business Herald reporter found that there are more local problem enterprises or "zombie enterprises". As disclosed by Henan Province, as of 20 18, 10 has disposed of 1 124 zombie enterprises in provinces, cities and counties; Guangdong province disclosed that 2,385 zombie enterprises were cleared in 20 16 years.

Local authorities are the main executors of zombie enterprises, but there are thousands of enterprises, and the relationship between local authorities and creditors such as enterprises and financial institutions is more complicated. In the process of accelerating the liquidation of zombie enterprises, it is also necessary to avoid secondary "harm". The market calls for professional restructuring capital to intervene in trillion-dollar problem enterprises to deal with the blue ocean.

Find out the base and speed up the clearance.

265438+20th Century Business Herald reporters inquired about the public information disclosed by SASAC in several provinces and cities, and found that from 20 16, some provinces announced the zombie enterprise disposal plan one after another. According to the plan, the zombie enterprise disposal can be completed from the end of 20 19 to 2020.

For example, according to the Shandong provincial government's standards of losing money for three consecutive years, losing hope of turning losses, stopping production or semi-stopping production, and losing hematopoietic function due to insolvency, the number of "provincial zombie enterprises" in 20 16 was 32 1 (the number of zombie enterprises in cities and counties was not announced), involving employees 12 1023. According to the plan, Shandong province will dispose of 72 zombie enterprises in 20 16, 20 17, 20 18, 125, 124, and complete the zombie enterprises in Shandong province before the end of 20 18.

In addition, Henan Province disclosed that as of 20 18, 10 has disposed of10/24 zombie enterprises in provinces, cities and counties, and it is expected that the reform of state-owned enterprises will be completed in 20 19. In 20 16, Guangdong province completed the clean-up of 2,385 zombie enterprises. According to the Action Plan of Guangdong Province's Supply-side Structural Reform to Reduce Capacity (20 16-20 18), by the end of 20 18, Guangdong basically realized the "zombie enterprise" market.

For local governments and SASAC that have not made public and confirmed the debt disposal lists of "zombie enterprises" and de-capacity enterprises, the notice recently issued by the National Development and Reform Commission gives a clear timetable-the first batch of lists will be confirmed within three months, and all the disposal work will be completed in principle by the end of 2020.

A person close to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) in a province in North China told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that SACs in all provinces have conducted a thorough investigation in the province and have a better understanding of the local situation. Many institutions, including banks, want to get the list, but it is difficult to publish the list of zombie companies. On the one hand, it is difficult to have a unified standard for the identification of zombie enterprises at present; Second, once it is announced as a zombie enterprise, it may increase the difficulty of enterprise disposal. However, at present, the government will fully communicate with listed companies and gradually promote clearing according to the formulated plan.

He also bluntly said that the relationship between the government, banks and enterprises has also changed repeatedly in recent years, and it is really difficult to deal with zombie enterprises or problem enterprises. Most of the problem enterprises are state-owned enterprises with a long history and huge scale. Earlier, these enterprises took the initiative, and the government and banks were willing to provide help or services to enterprises. When the problem enterprises have debt problems, in the past few years, from the local implementation situation, bank credit is greatly influenced by the government. Under the pressure of the government, most of them will not recover loans or even continue to provide loans, and most of the problem enterprises can "reborn".

However, with the promotion of deleveraging in the past two years, the financial supervision and restraint of local governments, and the tightening of liquidity, the initiative and voice of banks have become stronger and stronger, and the debt pressure of problem enterprises has become more and more severe, and the space for easing is getting smaller and smaller. On the one hand, it is the pressure from creditors of financial institutions such as banks. On the other hand, facing the pressure of policy requirements, we must speed up the disposal of problem enterprises.

Li Shuguang, dean of the Graduate School of China University of Political Science and Law and director of the Research Center for Bankruptcy Law and Enterprise Reorganization, also told the 2 1 Century Business Herald that there were still some obstacles in local disposal of zombie enterprises in the past few years, such as policy digestion, concept change, government's inclusion in personnel placement, and where bankruptcy funds came from. However, according to the survey in the first half of this year, zombie enterprises have been promoted in various provinces on a large scale, and local governments and courts have accelerated their actions. The data of bankruptcy cases will also increase this year.

According to the data disclosed by the Supreme People's Court, the number of bankruptcy cases in China has been on the rise for five consecutive years since the inflection point of 20 13. According to the latest data, in 20 17, 9,542 new bankruptcy applications and bankruptcy cases were received by national courts, up 68.4% year-on-year; 6,257 cases were concluded, up 73.7% year-on-year. The market generally believes that the number of newly received and concluded bankruptcy cases in 20 18 may all exceed 1 10,000.

Efficiency and possible accidental injuries

At the same time, many business people have raised new concerns. The original intention of this round of accelerated disposal is to reduce waste of resources. However, if local governments blindly pursue disposal efficiency, they may form a second "waste" in disposal.

A business person of a big bank in North China told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that with the publication of a series of documents such as local government debts and the disposal of zombie enterprises, banks have more initiative in the game between local governments, banks and enterprises.

"In the past, banks attached great importance to the background of local governments or local government platforms, and the government was willing to provide guarantees for these state-owned enterprises. From the operational level, banks believe that this can clarify the responsibility. However, at this stage, the risk exposure of banks has been tightened, because it is impossible to recover debts by simply clearing the relationship, and the policy also supports the bankruptcy of zombie enterprises without operational ability. Many companies may have been accidentally injured in this round of accelerated clearance. " He speaks frankly.

For example, he pointed out that the cash flow and operation problems of a well-known local real estate enterprise were mainly due to excessive private lending at that time, but other assets were of high quality and had better repayment ability in the future. However, the provincial bank resolutely refused to renew the loan, the bank fled hastily, and many assets were sold at low prices. But at that time, it was probably just a lack of cash flow injection, and a potential enterprise went bankrupt, which was difficult to revive and a waste of resources.

Zhong Lunquan, deputy general manager of Beijing A-B-C Asset Management Co., Ltd. told 2 1 Century Business Herald that from the experience of previous problematic projects, the project was not successful, mainly because it was difficult for all stakeholders to find a balance point, so they rushed to deal with it. Whether a project or an enterprise is in trouble, the reasons are very complicated, such as financial problems, management problems, positioning problems and so on. However, after the project finally fails or the enterprise is on the verge of bankruptcy, the interests of all parties will be extremely unbalanced.

Zhong Lunquan was entrusted by Hankou Bank to handle the restructuring project of Wuhan Shipyard. At that time, Wuhan Shipyard was building ships for German customers, and the bank wanted to sue because of insufficient cash flow during the construction. "If you auction directly from the bank's point of view, the shipyard will go bankrupt, the shipyard will have no assets, the bank's creditor's rights will not be collected, and it will also bear various burdens such as severance pay. Only when the ship can be successfully built, handed over to Germany, paid to the shipyard and returned to the bank can we achieve a win-win situation. At this time, it is necessary to persuade banks to refinance, close down and build ships, and at the same time persuade Germany to raise prices. It is a very successful case that the shipyard can be successfully restructured by repaying the bank loan through the shipbuilding money. "

He pointed out that when creditors, shareholders, employees and the government are usually in a very chaotic state, it is not feasible to blindly pursue speed. Only by making a good plan and restructuring plan and balancing the relationship between all parties can we avoid the second failure and injury and pursue the maximization of interests, but this kind of investment must be worthwhile.

"300 million" threshold and the scarcity of professional capital

However, professional and efficient disposal requires the intervention of professional restructuring capital. Wu Ge, managing partner of Telford Assets, pointed out that the key to whether the problem enterprises can be saved through restructuring is how to attract new funds. However, in practice, all stakeholders are considering returning funds instead of investing them. Without money, they can't solve the problem. Even if they go bankrupt and reorganize, they should replenish their working capital. At present, the professional restructuring capital for problem enterprises in the market is scarce.

In particular, he pointed out that in terms of capital strength, 300 million yuan is a hurdle. There are many private enterprises in China that can mobilize funds below 300 million yuan, but they often lack experience. Because the amount is relatively independent, many contract terms are blindly put into the project, and the possibility of failure is relatively high. Most of the funds that can be mobilized above 300 million are licensed institutions, and the system is not short of money. However, the principle of the organization is to consider the investment without making mistakes and rarely enter the problem project.

Generally speaking, the capital below 300 million yuan lacks professional experience, and the capital above 300 million yuan is unwilling to enter, which is the reason why the restructuring capital is scarce.

Zhang Zheng, chairman of Lakeside Investment, told 2 1 Century Business Herald that the disposal of zombie enterprises is still mostly packaged by banks, and there are not many problem enterprises that actually enter and are deeply operated by professional AMC.

Wu Ge also told reporters that for problem enterprises, on the one hand, they need funds, on the other hand, they also need professional funds. He pointed out that the most needed professional capital reorganization is comprehensive ability, mainly including commercial ability and legal ability, and commercial ability is even greater than legal ability.

He pointed out that there is almost no objection to the communication between a creditor's right and the debtor, only that if it cannot be repaid, it cannot be negotiated. Traditional disposal methods using legal weapons may not win. From a macro perspective, the scale of problem assets is trillions. Such a huge figure, I'm afraid it is difficult to get a result through litigation and auction. Therefore, how to carry out professional interest distribution and renegotiation, and more professional capital restructuring will probably become the key to promote and solve the problem.

A private AMC business person also pointed out that professional institutions should be more involved in the disposal and reorganization of problem enterprises, and professional programs should be formulated through professional institutions to ensure the smooth implementation of the programs. On the one hand, the situation of problem enterprises and problem projects changes from time to time, and so does the situation of creditor's rights. We should consider how to coordinate different interests, even more complicated issues such as economy, people's livelihood and social responsibility. Third parties can usually be independent of creditors, debtors and the government, and more objectively analyze and quantify the balance points of various stakeholders.

"At present, the commercial enthusiasm of professional institutions to enter the field of problem enterprise disposal is still limited. On the one hand, it is the consideration of pure commercial return, whether it is professional or not, and whether it can be commercially sustainable. This will test the professional strength of the organization. On the other hand, because the problem enterprises are mostly state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, the openness to private capital is limited. This is also the appeal of the current industry, hoping to have more open opportunities and enter the trillion-problem enterprises to dispose of the blue ocean. " She pointed out.

(Article source: 2 1 Century Business Herald)