The economy may not be optimistic in 2020, but it may be the cheapest node to buy a car.

Last weekend, the government just issued guidelines to stabilize the consumption of Volkswagen. June 65438+1October 65438+July 2020, Foshan immediately put forward a policy to encourage automobile consumption according to the "National Six" standard, giving subsidies ranging from 2000 to 5000 yuan per vehicle, becoming the first city to introduce an automobile consumption incentive policy in 2020.

Looking back, car subsidies often occur in the period of low consumption. At the beginning of 2020, the state introduced a car subsidy policy. We can't help thinking, what changes have taken place in our lives, and what is the logic behind car consumption?

The automobile industry was directly hit by the epidemic.

The Spring Festival in 2020 is very special. There is no shopping consumption, catering consumption and tourism consumption in this Spring Festival. In previous years, the turnover of many industries during the Spring Festival accounted for half or more of the whole year, but a sudden epidemic changed everything, job opportunities became more urgent, and income inevitably decreased.

The automobile industry may be lucky. Near the Spring Festival, many automobile brands have completed the annual sales tasks and assessment, and set the next stage sales targets according to the economic situation in the new year. During the Spring Festival, the automobile sales market was bleak, but the epidemic situation had little impact.

Traditionally, the first half of the year is not the main time for car sales, and car companies usually release new products. For example, the biennial Shanghai/Beijing Auto Show is an opportunity for major car companies to release new products, while the mid-year auto show is mainly for promotion. The starting point of the golden age of automobile sales can be considered as the period from May 1 day to the 11th National Day every year.

According to the forecast of the epidemic, experts believe that it is optimistic that this once-in-a-decade epidemic can be completely eliminated in June, so at least before May, the plans of car companies to release new products were all disrupted, offline activities were cancelled without exception, and even the Beijing Auto Show was postponed. This year may be the first year for major car companies to try to release new products online.

The mobile phone industry first started the live release of new products.

However, even so, the news about epidemic control at the end of February inspired many people. Except for Wuhan, the number of new cases in the country has been greatly reduced, which does not seem to affect the traditional peak season of automobile sales, but this conclusion is still too hasty.

On the one hand, as long as the epidemic situation in Wuhan is not completely alleviated, Wuhan, a key area of automobile manufacturing in China, will affect the supply of the automobile market.

At present, there are a large number of automobile factories and suppliers in Wu Hanyou. Wuhan is the base camp of Dongfeng Motor, including Dongfeng Honda Motor in Wuhan Economic Development Zone, Dongfeng Yingfinidi in Xiangyang, Hubei Province, Dongfeng Nissan under construction in Wuhan, and SAIC-GM Wuhan factory that produces Yinglang and other best-selling models.

In addition to these OEMs, there are a large number of supplier enterprises in Wuhan, including Bosch, Valeo and Delphi, which influence not only several automobile brands located in Wuhan.

Hyundai Motor announced that it would suspend its factory operation in Quanzhou due to the spare parts inventory caused by the delayed resumption of work by suppliers due to the outbreak of China epidemic. Wuhan is the center of the automobile industry.

For Wuhan, where production is struggling, the longer the epidemic situation is controlled (especially under the premise that the whole country has been controlled, Wuhan has not completely blocked human-to-human transmission), the more urgent the automobile production is. Maybe at the beginning of the new year, cars will enter a situation without market.

This situation will undoubtedly make the automobile market in 2020 more difficult. After 20 18 and 20 19 fell for two consecutive years, the decline in 2020 is certain. However, all the reasons cannot be attributed to the epidemic situation in Wuhan. In fact, in addition to the epidemic, there are many factors that affect car sales. For example, the decline in sales of 20 18 and 20 19 can be attributed to conservative consumption. Unfortunately, in 2020, people's consumption will be more conservative, because most people's income will be affected.

It affects everyone's income.

Tourism, film and television, catering, retail and transportation can be said to be the industries that will have the most serious impact on Spring Festival travel rush in 2020. The cancellation of a large number of restaurants, consumption and entertainment dashed the hopes of employees in these industries who had expected to receive extremely generous rewards during the Spring Festival. What is more pessimistic is that they are now facing enormous economic pressure.

Obviously, the impact is not limited to the surface, which is related to people's livelihood industries, such as the supply of meat, poultry and vegetables behind catering enterprises, and the income of farmers has also been greatly affected. A large number of vegetables donated by Shouguang, Shandong Province are partly due to unsalable sales.

Delaying the resumption of work makes many enterprises face a lot of fixed expenses, such as wages, venues, taxes and so on. At the same time, it faces a reduction in business. Therefore, in 2020, SMEs are generally struggling. In this case, cost control will become a buzzword in 2020.

Recruitment demand has been greatly reduced, and even layoffs have occurred. What is even sadder is how many young people originally planned to quit their jobs years ago and look for jobs years later. There is no income in 65438+ 10 and February affected by the epidemic. After February, the epidemic continued to spread, and enterprises were considering the cost. It is optimistic that these people can find jobs in May. Will his consumption concept be conservative in the face of five months' shrinking income?

In this regard, we can also get a glimpse from the policy issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on delaying the repayment of mortgage, car loan and credit card for people without income: just one month without income will affect a family's capital chain, and mortgage and credit card bills will become a big problem for a family-a conservative consumption mentality will become the norm in the first half of the year.

Another evidence is that the sales of smart phones that should have broken out in the new year have not increased, but all major organizations have predicted it? In the first quarter of 2020, how much will China's smartphone sales decline? 30%~50%。

People often make two judgments when making consumption decisions: one is the expected judgment of income in the next three months; Second, the expected judgment of the income in the coming year. Mobile phones belong to the former, and cars belong to the second. On the premise of being pessimistic about the income in 2020, automobile consumption will be in a downturn, and there will be no miracle of turning losses into profits, and the cliff-like decline is almost expected. It is optimistically estimated that car sales will drop by about 20% in 2020.

The government can't tolerate the decline in car sales.

The government can't tolerate the decline in car sales or even the decline in economic growth.

As a commodity of family daily expenditure, the contribution of automobile to GDP is the highest except real estate. When automobile consumption is weak, economic growth will be weak. The logic is as follows:

Consumers are willing to spend money (create demand), and auto companies will increase production research and development (create demand). As car sales increase and profits increase, employees' income will also increase. Once consumers have money, if they are optimistic about their future income, they will be more willing to spend and create other demands.

Ensuring consumption is one of the main tasks of the government in 2020, but consumption cannot be real estate, because real estate is not a closed loop. Real estate consumption flows from consumers to the government, and automobile consumption flows from one consumer to another. Money is endless, but the total amount is not small.

In the case of conservative consumption, what the government wants is to make money flow, not to be fixed or reduced. In order to make money flow, the government even has to take money out of its own pocket and throw it into the pool of consumption. This is the policy of stimulating consumption with various subsidies.

Only by consumption can China's economic growth rate reach 6%. 6% is the bottom line, which is the task that the government will strive to accomplish in 2020. There are a lot of employment opportunities behind this task.

This year, 8 million college graduates want to work. These people need income to eat, survive and work, but the total social income remains unchanged. Suddenly, 8 million people came in, either crowding out some people or diluting the overall income level. Even if some people are squeezed out, there are still 8 million people without jobs. Therefore, for these 8 million people, the government should continue to expand the plate of total social income, and this plate will continue to increase at a rate of 6% to meet the new employment population.

To increase income, plates must promote consumption, make money flow, and let the people have money, but the people can't have money for no reason. They must first ask people to take out their money, and then increase their income through work. Let the people take out their money, only to make them feel that things are cheap, such as cars.

It can be said that under the optimistic economic growth rate of less than 5% in the first quarter of this year, the government will introduce more policies to stimulate consumption in the remaining three quarters:

For example, this year, in order to attract more migrant workers, many cities put forward the conditions (obligations) of reimbursing migrant workers' fares and providing three days' free accommodation.

In order to promote car sales, Foshan proposed a policy of subsidizing 3000-5000 yuan per car.

Meanwhile, in order to make it easier for consumers to spend, RRR will cut interest rates again this year. However, China's current benchmark interest rate is already very low, which needs to be realized by other means, such as exempting from paying five insurances and one gold, exempting from taxes and fees for small and medium-sized cars, and so on. At the same time, some cities with relatively good economic development will also implement different consumption subsidy policies. For example, Foshan is very rich in finance and is willing to take out money to subsidize car consumption.

From the perspective of automobile manufacturers, in today's more difficult economic situation, it is bound to ensure that sales will become the top priority, and more interest-free loan policies and better promotion conditions will appear, which means that the transaction price of automobiles will be in a relatively low position this year.

In 2020, China will face domestic troubles and foreign invasion, and it is time to take over for the country.

Figure? |? From the network

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.