The new trend of the logistics industry in 2020: significant giant effect, technological empowerment, accelerated construction of smart logistics...

The logistics industry is not only a beneficiary of China’s rapid business development in recent years, but also an important driving force in promoting the deepening innovation and continuous change of China’s business model.

In 2014, the State Council issued the "Medium and Long-term Plan for the Development of the Logistics Industry (2014-2020)", which systematically proposed the development priorities, main tasks and key projects of the logistics industry at different stages, and clarified a period of The development direction and goals of the domestic logistics industry. In accordance with the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council on deepening the supply-side structural reform and promoting "three reductions, one reduction and one supplement", the National Development and Reform Commission and other relevant departments focused on promoting logistics cost reduction and efficiency improvement to promote the development of the real economy, and introduced the logistics industry cost reduction and efficiency improvement Implement the plan and launch the pilot comprehensive reform of logistics cost reduction and efficiency improvement, etc.

In 2020, the logistics industry is about to upgrade. This article mainly reviews the major policies and events that have affected the development of the logistics industry in the past two years, and uses this as a basis to analyze the development trends of the logistics industry in 2020.

As the overall market growth slows down, China’s logistics industry, which has experienced a period of rapid growth, will shift from incremental capture to stock competition. Therefore, the trend of market-oriented integration is expected to become more and more obvious, and various logistics sub-sectors will show a clear trend of increasing concentration in the process of eliminating the weak and retaining the strong.

For the express delivery industry, which has a high degree of standardization and scale, industry concentration has increased significantly, and barriers to scale advantages of leading companies have emerged, while non-leading players are facing a development crisis of being integrated or liquidated. . Compared with leading companies, small and medium-sized express delivery companies are faced with lower industry prices, narrow market shares, and rising costs. The survival space of small and medium-sized express delivery companies in market competition is also increasingly shrinking.

In 2019, various express delivery companies have launched price wars. Some second- and third-tier express delivery companies have withdrawn from the market, and the market share of the logistics and express delivery industry is constantly converging on leading companies. At the same time, as the scale of each large express delivery company grows, the marginal benefits brought by its scale are also constantly decreasing. The costs of leading express delivery companies are converging. In the future, the price war between large companies will be more cruel.

At present, there are a large number of logistics companies in my country, the industry market share is dispersed, and the degree of concentration is low. Only a few are truly integrated logistics companies, and most of the rest are pure freight forwarders, transportation or warehousing operators. China Research Network pointed out that the existing extensive growth and simple services of the logistics industry are unsustainable and cannot play a fundamental role in adjusting the industrial structure and changing the development model. The logistics industry may enter a period of mergers and acquisitions, which will help my country's logistics market structure gradually shift from decentralization to concentration, forming a new business format that is "zero but not chaotic, scattered but orderly".

According to Roland Berger’s prediction, the boundaries of traditional logistics industry segments are gradually blurring, and diversification has gradually become the development practice of leading logistics companies. On the one hand, the diversification of adjacent sub-sectors will help companies release synergy potential and extend advantageous resources. At the same time, diversification has also become a common choice for logistics companies to meet customers' one-stop logistics demands and find new growth points. In the field of standardized logistics products, express delivery and express delivery are typical standardized network logistics industries, and related companies are actively developing across borders. Similarly, in recent years, leading logistics groups have built comprehensive logistics solutions that focus on customers, building a comprehensive logistics network that includes express delivery, heavy cargo, cold chain, intra-city instant distribution, contract logistics, cross-border logistics and other coexisting networks.

Third-party logistics refers to a kind of logistics operation and management in which production and operation enterprises concentrate on their main business and maintain close contact with logistics service enterprises through information systems to manage and control the entire logistics process. management style. As competition in the downstream industry becomes increasingly fierce, third-party logistics companies begin to participate in more business links of customers, and their service scope gradually expands, from contract logistics to virtual production, logistics finance, etc., and upgrades to fourth-party logistics, that is, supply chain logistics. .

In 2017, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Actively Promoting Supply Chain Innovation and Application", which elevated supply chain innovation and application to a national strategy. In 2018, eight departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the "Notice on Carrying out Pilot Supply Chain Innovation and Application", once again consolidating the strategic position of supply chain in my country's economic development. The "2018-2023 China Supply Chain Management Service Industry Market Prospects and Business Model Analysis Report" shows that the compound growth rate of my country's logistics and supply chain service market value will remain at around 10% in the next five years. By 2020, my country's logistics and supply chain The service market value will reach 321 trillion yuan, and by 2023, the market value is expected to reach 378 trillion yuan.

Wang Jingtian, a transportation industry researcher at the China Galaxy Securities Research Institute, said that under the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, supply chain logistics and other sectors have embraced broad space. The concept of supply chain management emerged relatively late in China, and a number of supply chain management companies have emerged in recent years. According to public data, the year-on-year growth rate of the revenue of listed supply chain service companies from 2012 to 2018 was significantly higher than the average level of A-share listed companies, and also higher than the overall level of the aviation and logistics sectors, which has a significant driving effect on the entire logistics industry.

With the new round of industrial revolution and Sino-US trade friction, the global industrial layout and global supply chain pattern will undergo major adjustments. As an important component of the producer service industry, the logistics industry will play a more important role in improving the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry. This year, this trend will further drive the in-depth interconnected and integrated development of the logistics industry and manufacturing industry. For logistics companies, the key to competitiveness is no longer to simply provide logistics operations, but to be able to output solutions that integrate upstream and downstream supply chains to achieve seamless connection between manufacturing, circulation and consumption. Cultivating an internationally competitive global supply chain system will become the core of the in-depth interconnected and integrated development of the logistics industry and manufacturing industry.

In July last year, my country proposed for the first time the implementation of urban and rural cold chain logistics facility construction projects. The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Commerce and other relevant departments also successively issued "On Promoting High-Quality Development of Logistics and Promoting the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market" Policy documents such as "Opinions" and "Notice on Promoting Rural-Business Interconnection to Improve Agricultural Products Supply Chain" promote the healthy development of the cold chain logistics industry from different levels with the highest level of guidance and deployment. Guangxi, Guangzhou, Longyan, Luoyang and other provinces and cities have also introduced cold chain logistics policies and plans, elevating the development of cold chain logistics to a level closely related to rural revitalization, targeted poverty alleviation, industrial upgrading, etc., and providing cold chain land, construction funds, etc. Support and subsidies.

According to calculations and analysis by the China Internet of Things Cold Chain Committee, my country’s total food cold chain logistics demand is expected to reach 235.2 million tons in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 24.65%. The total size of my country's cold chain logistics market is also expected to reach 339.12 billion yuan in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 17.60%.

In 2019, against the backdrop of changing cold chain demands and market models, many companies actively explored and deployed new market opportunities. For example, G7 and Japan's Marubeni established a joint venture to focus on intelligent cold chain fleet asset management services. Alibaba's Reindeer Cold Chain plans to build 50 large and medium-sized professional fresh food cold chain warehouses in China, and deploy 100 fresh food cold chain transportation trunk lines, 1,000 transportation branch lines and cold chain short-term barges. JD Logistics has successively launched the cold chain transportation service "JD Kaban", the core B2B product "Cold Chain Urban Distribution" and the first platform product cold chain vehicle. Suning Logistics announced that it will realize the construction of 1 million square meters of cold chain warehousing by 2022. Weijie City Distribution, Jiuye Supply Chain, Beidou, and Xinliangji have successively received financing and gained favor from the capital market.

In addition, new technologies and equipment such as smart stores, automatic sorting, smart warehousing, and new energy vehicles are also gradually being promoted and applied in the cold chain logistics industry.

Looking to the future, cold chain logistics has broad opportunities. Based on the current situation, the cold chain industry is still facing many problems such as outstanding imbalances in infrastructure and continuous compression of corporate profit margins. Cui Zhongfu, vice president and secretary-general of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that the current stage is in the painful period of transformation and upgrading of the cold chain industry. It will take time to implement favorable policies, and the spillover effect has not yet appeared; market demand has not yet fully exploded, and consumers’ understanding of the cold chain Knowledge still needs to be cultivated. Therefore, on the one hand, enterprises need to identify their business positioning, practice and improve their internal skills, and at the same time, they must actively work together to stay warm and enhance their risk resistance.

With the development of new technologies such as Internet+, Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, machine intelligence, and blockchain, intelligent logistics equipment and intelligent transportation capacity, logistics supply and demand matching platforms, and cross-border Enterprises and others have entered the fast lane of development, and the modern logistics industry is entering an era of smart logistics driven by technology.

Deloitte China Logistics and Transportation Industry Leading Partner Song Xujun pointed out that in the Internet era, the integration of the logistics industry with the Internet has changed the original market environment and business processes of the logistics industry and promoted the emergence of a number of new logistics industries. Business models and operating models, such as vehicle-cargo matching, crowdsourcing transportation capacity, multimodal transportation, etc. The improvement of basic transportation conditions and the further improvement of informatization have stimulated the rapid development of multimodal transportation models and comprehensive supply chain services. A new logistics operation model is taking shape, and the smart logistics that adapts to it are showing rapid growth.

At present, the average penetration rate of my country's intelligent logistics system reaches 20%. The entire intelligent logistics industry has entered a period of development. The market scale of intelligent logistics equipment continues to expand. In 2022, the market size of intelligent warehousing equipment and intelligent logistics distribution equipment will be will exceed 100 billion yuan. The application of 5G technology in all aspects of logistics, warehousing, transportation, and distribution will promote the arrival of the era of smart logistics.

In addition to the capital market, more and more logistics giants are stepping up their deployment of smart logistics in the form of logistics technology industry funds, group R&D investment, etc. Behind this are high expectations for cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the smart technology-driven industry. . In terms of intelligent warehousing equipment, we are actively building intelligent warehouses, focusing on the research and development of handling, picking and sorting, palletizing robots, and automatic picking and belt conveyor robots; in terms of research and development of intelligent logistics and distribution equipment, we focus on the production and development of drones, Last-mile intelligent distribution equipment such as delivery robots and smart cabinets.

Yiou believes that China’s logistics industry will enter an all-round unmanned era in the future, and the entire logistics ecosystem will show a trend of integration and sharing, whether it is warehousing, transportation and distribution companies, or Platform companies should consciously cooperate with other companies.

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