Will Yili become the second Vanke?

Introduction: Another listed company with a market value of nearly 100 billion was placarded by insurance funds. This deja vu scene is not worrying. Will there be another "Wanbao dispute"?

On the evening of September 18, Yili released a report on changes in equity. Sunshine Insurance Group Co., Ltd. has held 5% of the company's shares through its subsidiaries, which is close to the position of the second largest shareholder.

After the announcement of the placard, Yili shares decisively suspended trading and learned a little experience from Vanke; At the same time, Sunshine Insurance is also very "sensible" to say that it will not increase its holdings in the future 12 months, and also said that the placard Yili is purely "eat too much pickles and drink some milk".

However, the more you listen to this, the more like a smoke bomb.

Yili is very much like Vanke, and Sunshine Insurance is well prepared.

As a leading dairy enterprise, Yili shares have excellent profitability. The 20 16 semi-annual report of Yili shares shows that the total operating income of Yili shares in this period is 30.087 billion yuan, which is the same as the same period of last year, and the total profit is 3.807 billion yuan, an increase of 19.4 1% over the same period of last year. According to data from market research organization AC Nielsen, during the reporting period, the company's retail sales accounted for 20. 1% of the domestic dairy market, ranking first.

In addition, Yili's stock is now far ahead of Mengniu, another dairy giant. The data shows that Yili's 20 15 revenue scale exceeds Mengniu 10 billion yuan, and its net profit is almost twice that of Mengniu. At the same time, the company's dairy market share continued to increase, hitting a new high in 15.

In the field of liquid milk, the sales scale of the company surpassed Mengniu for the first time in 20 14, ranking first in liquid milk. In addition, the company maintains a leading position in various segments, and the market share of low-temperature yogurt continues to increase. Infant milk powder ranks first in the domestic brand market, and the cold drink business is the industry champion.

In terms of shareholding structure, according to the interim report, the shareholding ratio of Hohhot Investment Co., Ltd., the largest shareholder, is only 8.84%, and the shareholding ratio of Hong Kong Securities Clearing Co., Ltd., the second largest shareholder, is 6.25%. It can be seen that the company's equity is extremely scattered, and Sunshine Insurance, which only advertised once, has jumped to the third largest shareholder.

Excellent profitability, coupled with decentralized equity, Yili shares are very similar to Vanke.

Speaking of it, Sunshine Insurance is also a frequent visitor to A shares. Last year, 65438+February 1, Sunshine Insurance advertised Chengde Lulu, Beijing Investment Yintai and CYTS within one day, which was chilling. In addition, Sunshine Insurance also advertised the shares of Zhu Feng Textile and Shengli.

But for the placard of Yili shares, Sunshine Insurance is more like a shrewd operator. Judging from the placard path, Sunshine Insurance entered the top ten shareholders of Yili for the first time in last year's annual report. At that time, it held 65.438+009 billion shares, accounting for 654.38+0.83% of the total share capital, ranking the fifth largest shareholder of Yili.

Since then, the shareholding ratio of Sunshine Insurance has changed in Yili's first quarterly report and interim report, so it is estimated that the buying behavior of Sunshine Insurance mainly occurs in July and August. Ambush for half a year, not suspected to be prepared. Now Sunshine Insurance can win the largest shareholder seat by increasing its shareholding by 4%. If the suspension price is 16. 1 1, then less than 4 billion cash can be realized.

In order to prevent death, Yili took pains.

Now, Yili's response to the sudden entry of insurance funds is still very timely. Not only did it suspend trading quickly, but Yili shares also began to look for the "white knight" early.

Insiders of Yili said on September 19 that the management of Yili is seeking communication time with shareholders such as Sunshine Insurance through suspension of trading. At the same time, Yili's management is also looking for the support of "financial bosses" to avoid the risk of hostile takeover. However, due to the tight time, the "financial person in charge" has not been clearly pointed out.

Experts in the industry believe that Yili's own equity is scattered, which is not conducive to defense. This suspension or anti-takeover plan is planned.

In fact, with the warning of "Bao Neng forced the palace", Yili shares have long been aware of the risk of too scattered equity, but due to financial and institutional reasons, they cannot change the status quo.

According to the above-mentioned insiders, Yili's top management has repeatedly discussed the integration of equity to prevent the invasion of "barbarians", but due to insufficient financial strength, the plan failed to take place. After Sunshine Insurance advertised, Yili wanted to seek the support of SASAC. However, in view of Sunshine Insurance's statement that "financial investment does not actively seek to become the largest shareholder", SASAC is unlikely to intervene.

In fact, Yili has made great efforts to prevent "barbarians", the most famous of which is the previous revision of the company's articles of association. From "shareholders holding 3% of shares must be notified" to the definition of "hostile takeover", most clauses try to raise the threshold of takeover, and barbarians control the board of directors of the company.

However, due to the inconsistency between the articles of association to be revised and laws and regulations, this move has been inquired by the Shanghai Stock Exchange for ten times. Therefore, Yili Co., Ltd. is not allowed to improve the operability of the bill again, and the modification has not been completed.

In addition to the above tricks, Yili shares also asked the insurance shareholders face to face in order to set their minds at ease.

An executive of Yili once told China Entrepreneur: "Many insurance companies are our shareholders, and sometimes they are asked if they will advertise Yili. They say that there are too many companies in the market that are more beautiful than Yili, because in their view, beautiful companies are like real estate and banks, which are simple to operate. Unlike a company like Yili, which is a farmer and a consumer on the one hand, the whole process is too complicated for ordinary people to control. And the risk is too great to stand the toss. Vanke's tossing may be to sell a few houses less, and consumer goods companies toss, and consumers have to pay for it. "

But reality is always skinny, and everything is still so unexpected.

How credible is the promise of Sunshine Insurance?

Having said that, Yili can't ignore another protagonist-Sunshine Insurance Group Co., Ltd. ..

Although Sunshine Insurance has promised not to increase its holdings within 65,438+02 months, it also indicates that it is purely a financial investment in the brand Yili. However, the sudden change of face in the capital market has long been normal. It is better to analyze it in a down-to-earth way than to listen.

Sunshine Insurance is one of the top 500 enterprises in China and one of the seven insurance groups in China. It owns Sunshine Life Insurance, Sunshine Property Insurance, Sunshine Asset Management, Sunshine Chongqing Credit Insurance, Sunshine Ronghe Hospital and other institutions. According to public data, the annual premium income of Sunshine Insurance in 20 15 is 56.867 billion yuan. In contrast, the premium income of Qianhai Life Insurance under Baoneng in 20 15 years is1737.6 billion yuan, which shows how big Sunshine Insurance is.

Looking back at the actions of Sunshine Insurance in recent years, the mentality of its management to continuously expand shares can be seen. According to the 20 15 annual report disclosed by Sunshine Property Insurance and Sunshine Life Insurance, subsidiaries of Sunshine Insurance Group, the total net profit of the two companies is about 3.4 billion yuan. From the perspective of investment income alone, Sunshine Property Insurance and Sunshine Life Insurance totaled 12538+0 billion yuan.

With rapid expansion and quick profit, the voice of Sunshine Insurance Group actively seeking listing is endless. Earlier, Hong Kong media reported that Sunshine Insurance planned to go public in Hong Kong, and claimed that it would raise 600 million dollars. However, after many news of listing in Hong Kong, Sunshine Insurance has not made a formal response to its IPO plan.

Branding Yili shares, although Sunshine Insurance made its own statement, stressed that it was the first company in the industry to take the initiative to express its position after placarding, and did not seek to become the largest shareholder.

But is it really that simple? Under the background of asset shortage, insurance funds have already begun to target the big blue chips of A shares.

Some market participants pointed out that Sunshine Insurance's placard of Yili shares is obviously more than "optimistic about the future development prospects". Under the background of stricter supervision, Sunshine Insurance still maintains a high-profile action, and there must be a deeper layout and intention behind it.

He believes that although Sunshine Insurance verbally promised not to seek control of Yili, from its development process, it is more like a springboard for capital operation, and it does not rule out continuing to increase its holdings and gain control of the company. Participate in Yili's strategic decision-making, use Yili's profitability and cash flow to expand non-dairy business, and operate its good equity investment on Yili as a platform to profit from it.

At the same time, Song Kungang, honorary chairman of China Dairy Industry Association, said that this venture capital investment in Yili shares can not be simply regarded as an ordinary investment behavior, but it needs special vigilance that it regards Yili shares as a springboard for capital operation, thus causing systematic harm to china dairy's industrial security.

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