Behind the ideal prospectus

American time? 7? Month? 10? Li filed a complaint with the US Securities and Exchange Commission? SEC？ Formal submission? IPO？ Prospectus document, stock code? Li.

What needs to be clear is that the prospectus does not disclose information such as the issue price range and circulation. What has been disclosed so far? 1? /kloc-$0/0 billion is a placeholder, not the final financing target.

For the purpose of ideal listing, I won't do too much interpretation here. Many data exposed in this prospectus are worthy of careful study.

Extremely high capital efficiency

20 19? Year? 12? Li/kloc-officially started delivery in June of 0/2? 1 month 1 day? 973? One car, total income? 2.84367? 10 billion yuan, total sales cost? 2.84462? 1 100 million yuan, only gross? 9.5? Ten thousand yuan.

This year? Q 1？ Ideal one * * * delivery? 2896? One car, total income? 8.5 1? 10 billion yuan, total sales cost? 7.83? 1 100 million yuan, gross profit? 6828.8? Ten thousand yuan, gross profit margin? 8%。

Vehicle? BOM？ The cost is closely related to the output of vehicles. High output can not only make car companies have stronger bargaining power in the supply chain, but also effectively reduce production costs.

Look back again? 2020? Q2？ 6604? What can be expected if the current sales cost is maintained at an ideal level? Q2？ Gross profit margin will definitely increase again. ? This is a very proud achievement for a new automobile manufacturing enterprise that has just started to deliver.

In addition to dazzling gross profit margin data, Li also has abundant cash flow.

From where? 20 15? Year? 10? Since the angel round of financing in February, Li Jinxing has made a * * *? 8? Round financing. As of? 2020? Year? 3? Month? 3 1? God, Li's cash and cash equivalents? 10.54? 1 100 million yuan (about? 1.48? What about time deposits and short-term investments? 23.5 1? 1 100 million yuan (about? 3.32? Billions of dollars), total? 34? 1 100 million yuan (about? 4.8? Billions of dollars).

Is this just this year's data? 3? Month? 3 1? Japanese data, including this year? 6? Meituan led the gains that month, followed by CICC Capital and Li Xiang? d？ Round of financing, Li has surpassed? 10? A billion dollars in cash.

This is not to say how strong the ideal financing ability is, but to set off Li's careful calculation of funds. According to my rough statistics, the accumulated financing in Li is only? 20? About 100 million dollars.

Huang Mingming is the founding partner of Capital, and has been investing in Li since the Angel Wheel. 36kr？ The interview shows:

Every round of financing is not easy for us, even if it is led by Wang Xing. c？ Round of financing, but also to find a large number of institutions.

In other words, Li Chengli? 5? Year, cumulative delivery? 10473? A car, with very little money, achieved a positive gross profit (according to the data released by Li Xiang in her circle of friends, it took * * * to achieve a positive gross profit? 10? Billions of dollars) and hold a lot of cash.

The above data all reflect the ideal and extremely high capital efficiency, and these achievements are closely related to Li Xiang's own business philosophy and thinking.

Accurate consumer positioning and product positioning

This is the advantage of the ideal written in the prospectus.

After a detailed investigation of hundreds of ideal car owners, we found that ideal? One? Actual users and ideals? One? The target users showed a high degree of consistency.

Ideal? One? Most users are families with two children, and they all have travel preferences. The core demand of these users is three rows and six seats? +? No mileage anxiety? +? Pure electric and intelligent driving experience, ideal at the same time? One? It only attracts target users with its cost-effective comprehensive experience advantage.

At this point, the most puzzling thing is how to treat the ideal extended-range electric technology.

In terms of energy efficiency, pure electric vehicles are the first choice to answer the first principle better and meet the more convenient driving experience than fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles. However, in addition to the development node of electrochemical technology route, the question that new energy vehicles must answer is actually environmental adaptability, including both the environmental adaptability of energy use scenarios and the acceptance process of public psychology.

To give a simple example, for a user who likes both the pure electric driving experience and road trip, the reason for choosing the ideal model instead of other pure electric vehicles may be "not so troublesome".

In the transition from fuel vehicle to electric vehicle, the most suitable power structure explored by Li is "extended range". The ideal positioning of products is a gradual innovation choice based on technological development and environmental adaptability.

It must be emphasized that the market acceptance of the technical route of the extension program here must be based on? 40? What can batteries do? NEDC？ 180? km？ Endurance and lower battery cost are two conditions, just like when we say pure trams, can't we just watch them? 200-300? km？ The conclusion is the same as that the pure electric vehicle is not successful and the pure electric vehicle is not feasible. Dig? 99? The well of rice, that's all? 1? The meal was a success.

Under the aura of Tesla, all investors love to watch the story of "China Tesla", but Li wants to shout out: "Isn't this car for me? VC？ What I want to do is a car that China people are willing to use and can afford, not for investors. 」

For a new car-making enterprise that needs a lot of financial support, it is commendable to ignore the attitude of the capital market and insist on starting from the needs of users to build a car that meets their needs.

Considering the geographical characteristics of China market with a large population and a small population, not everyone can own their own household charging piles like the people of California, and the experience of using public charging piles is still difficult to meet the expectations of users.

Secondly, even if we try to stack batteries, the upper limit of the actual full-charge life of electric vehicles can only be reached? 500? km？ Probably, and fuel cars can do it easily? 700-800? Km, and the efficiency of energy supplement is incomparable to electric vehicles at this stage.

Finally, according to? CIC? The report shows that although? 20 19? Compared with the annual cost of lithium batteries? 20 10? Year? 855? Dollar/kWh? A sharp drop, but still as high as? 166? Dollar/kWh, with the increasing demand for vehicle endurance, battery cost still accounts for the whole vehicle? BOM？ Cost? 40%, which is very unfavorable to the gross profit of the whole vehicle, except Tesla.

So, from user experience to user needs, to? BOM？ Cost, for users with long-distance demand, extended-range electric vehicles have a predictable growth window.

On the same basis? CIC? Where did the report come from? 20 16? The year is over? 20 19? Year, medium and large? SUV？ What is the compound annual growth rate of overall sales? 1 1.2%, estimated? 2020-2024? What is the compound annual growth rate? 13.5%, significantly higher than other types? Off-road vehicle

In a medium and large company whose sales volume keeps growing? SUV？ Market, ideal? One? This product has been completed from? 0? Arrive? 1? The verification of the matching degree of consumer demand won the first batch of 1 10,000 units delivered by the new car-making forces.

The next question to answer is expansion.

Expansion, expansion, expansion?

Is the ideal hand lying? 10? A billion dollars in cash flow, 8%? The gross profit of bicycles, the delivery achievement of 1 10,000 units, why should it be listed?

In addition to the withdrawal of old shareholders and the realization of employee option incentive, the ideal also faces an eternal problem that all enterprises have to face-expansion.

In the prospectus, Li revealed that the plan is in? 2022? A full-size model was launched in 2008? The SUV will be equipped with a new generation of extended range system. In order to meet the needs of more consumers, medium-sized and compact models will be launched in the future? Off-road vehicle

In other words, the future? 2? In a year, the ideal only depends on? One? Can we discuss this product now? 2022? The next full-scale model in 2008? SUV？ It's too early to say what the sales volume is.

Many people will say that the possible risk of ideals is that the model is too single.

From the perspective of traditional car companies, this is indeed a problem.

Let's look at it from another angle. Take Tesla for example. Currently only Tesla sales are supported. Models? 3? Models? Models? S/X？ How does it compare with sales? Models? 3? Only nine Niu Yi cents.

Obviously, compared with traditional car companies, Tesla's models are quite "single", so single is not the core issue, as long as it can become an explosion, this is enough.

And from the ideal? One? According to the sales volume in recent months, with the continuous digestion of backlog orders, it is ideal. One? Where does the sales come from? 5? At the beginning of the month, one after another? 2? It dropped last month. Does this mean the ideal of accurate consumer positioning and product positioning? A "growth bottleneck?

Judging from the current insured amount, in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other places, the data of some months has exceeded? 7? Seats? SUV？ Market overlord Highlander. Li Xiang himself said in an interview with Lakeside University:

Does it make any difference whether a city has a market share of Li Dian? 8? Times, which means that physical stores can greatly increase car sales, so channel expansion is needed. Number of stores opened in the whole year? 20? Home, open all year round instead? 60? Family store.

It can be seen that a new car brand wants to expand its territory. In addition to strong product strength, the expansion of offline channels is also essential.

At this point, the ideal strategy is slightly conservative, as of? 6? In June, the ideal number of stores in China is only? 2 1? Home, although it is ideal to reach as many users as possible through online channels, cars are products that emphasize experience after all. There are many links between product information reaching users, ordering and delivery, which must be carried out in stores or distribution centers at present.

Obviously, due to the lack of offline channels, ideal? One? Our sales have also been affected to some extent.

Therefore, with the increase in the number of stores, whether the sales volume can quickly break through 10,000 will be analyzed by waiting for the ideal report card for the next quarter.

Bet on autonomous driving

What is the ideal risk?

Ideal? One? The positioning is very clever. If you want a product with enough space, pure electric driving experience, no mileage anxiety, qualified assisted driving and excellent intelligent performance, what is the ideal? One? Is the only one, this is an absolute vacuum market, although it does not have an absolute long version, but it is balanced enough.

This is the ideal? One? The biggest benefit is also the hidden risk. The advantage is that there is no absolute opponent in comprehensive experience, and the disadvantage lies in the ideal? One? There is no absolute leading edge in the single functional feature of.

When traditional car companies gradually realize this vacant market, what do they want to use to protect their position?

Ideal must occupy the market quickly within the window period of two or three years for extended-range models. In the next five to ten years, or even longer, it is ideal to bet on the key core technology of autonomous driving.

In the live broadcast in car home, Li wants to reveal what the purpose of selling cars is? 2025? I got a self-driving ticket in 2008.

The achievements and planning in the field of intelligence are an important reference for the upper limit of the ideal market value after listing, which directly affects "Li? Whether AUTO is a car company or a technology company.

Some time ago, the software crisis about Volkswagen spread all over the automobile circle, and the discussion behind the software crisis focused on the organizational structure reform of the Volkswagen system.

Volkswagen? 90%? Will the software eventually be outsourced? ID.3？ There is a "huge software loophole".

Fortunately, a new car-making force like Ideal has avoided the organizational burden of traditional car companies from the beginning and built a direct direction from scratch. CEO？ Report to the autopilot team.

Unfortunately, however, in this prospectus, Ideality did not mention the layout planning related to autonomous driving, but on the afternoon of the prospectus, Li officially released a recruitment poster about autonomous driving.

The ideal of cash? One? What does the driver assistance hardware consist of? 1? Monocular camera? +? 1? Millimeter wave radar? +? 12? Ultrasonic radar realization? L2？ Our level of assisted driving? Adas? In the evaluation, the relatively simple hardware of this car has achieved a good driving experience.

But the relatively simple hardware architecture also limits the imagination space.

Judging from the information disclosed ideally before, will the next generation models be equipped? 8? Hd camera? +? 5? Millimeter wave radar? +? The basic hardware of high-precision map is similar to Tesla, but it is ideal to add high-precision map data on the basis of bicycle intelligence.

From ideal? One? From the performance point of view, Ideal is good at using relatively mature hardware architecture to realize delicate experience, but only using mature hardware architecture will lag behind peers by half a step or even one step in user cognition, which is the public opinion problem of Ideal in the field of autonomous driving. In this case, is it ideal to continue to catch up with the gap in experience or to be more radical in the development of the scene?

Secondly, from the perspective of hardware architecture, the current focus is on bicycle intelligence, and perception mainly depends on visual cameras. But so far, no company has adopted visual perception to achieve real meaning. FSD？ Function, even in the forefront of Tesla. In addition, relying on visual perception requires extremely high computing power of autopilot chips. At present, no autopilot chip can achieve computing power, power consumption and cost.

Finally, the team, Mercedes-Benz chose to cooperate with NVIDIA, and Weilai chose the direction? Mobileye？ At the same time, the autonomous driving department in North America is recruiting. The team led by Li is not luxurious. Li Xiang once said that the first stage is to recruit outstanding talents who believe in you, and the second stage is to recruit top talents who believe in you.

So what we are looking forward to next is whether the ideal will spell out a future of autonomous driving with the current lineup, or will there be well-known industry leaders to join?

Write it at the end

Have ideals? 23.5%? Wang Xing, whose equity has also been dubbed as the best commentator in the automobile industry by us, wrote a sentence on Fanbu:

If nothing serious happens, ideal? One? Should it be the first delivery in the new force of making cars? 10? Ten thousand models.

On the day when the prospectus was ideally released, Li Xiang's personal WeChat was replaced with the iconic tea egg head that has been used for many years.

And you, do you believe in ideals?

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.