How long can Android go?

20 19 On the morning of May 8th, our editors of Sanyi Life were sitting together to discuss the Google I/O 20 19 conference held last night, when a colleague suddenly said:

I watched the meeting last night. It was so boring, as if I had run out of skills.

We suddenly paused-where did this come from? But soon, we all realized that he was right, but because of this, Google's goal was really realized.

Yes, Google first came up with a mobile phone worthy of scolding.

Xiaolong 670 main control, 4+64GB memory configuration, rear large single camera (this CMOS is not bad objectively), 5.6-inch 1080P ordinary full screen and the screen ratio is very low ... To be honest, although it can still rely on Google's powerful camera algorithm (note, it is not XS) to kill iPhone X in low light environment, although it still integrates Titan M, the safest mobile phone encryption chip at present. However, when Google announced that the price of such a "brand-new mobile phone" Pixel 3a was as high as $399 (about RMB2,700), it was not surprising that we saw a buzz on the Internet.

What is this concept? First of all, in Amazon Online Mall in the United States, this price is enough to buy Samsung Galaxy S8 (US$ 395), LG V 35 (US$ 354.99) and other old flagships, which completely overwhelm the "new" Google Pixel 3a in terms of performance, screen effect, camera level, workmanship and various peripheral functions.

Not only that, in fact, if you are familiar with the history of "Google Mobile", you will find more problems-for example, although the Nexus series used to have a flat configuration and average workmanship, each generation used the flagship SoC, and the price was extremely cheap; Although the later Pixel series became more expensive, the first configuration was not a slot. Moreover, the previous three-generation pixel flagship has always had the advantage of "single hanging and multi-shooting". As the "Google flagship" for mass consumers, it is also expensive. That makes sense.

In contrast, this Pixel 3a was characterized as a "cheap version" of the old flagship Pixel 3 from the beginning: the configuration did not rise but fell, and the function castrated without innovation. The point is that the price is not cheap even for foreigners. It is natural to describe such a completely boring product release as "boring".

However, the new Android Q is really commendable.

To be honest, we don't think Google is really at its wit's end-although yesterday's Pixel 3a/3a XL was really not attractive enough, don't forget that Google is not a "mobile phone conference" originally, but a Google I/O, which is a comprehensive annual product release and performance report.

So, besides Pixel 3a, what else did Google release last night? Of course, it is a brand new Android system! Specifically, it is a new version of Android Q Beta3. Sure, it's called Beta3. In fact, this update is much bigger than the Beta version of the previous two small-scale tests, so for most people, it is actually the first real public test appearance of Android Q.

Specifically, this Android Q can be described as the operating system of future mobile devices: in terms of wireless networks, it provides native support for 5G standards; In terms of device form, Android Q finally joined the official folding screen interface adaptation scheme, which solved the automatic scaling problem of folding screen mobile APP in one fell swoop; In the AI solution, Android Q brings a local AI algorithm without networking, which can realize offline voice assistant and automatically add subtitles to videos offline. It is both magical and protects the privacy of users.

In addition, Android Q has stricter APP permission control-for example, secretly positioning the phone in the background, which is invisible from now on; Of course, in order to further strengthen the security of mobile phones and urge manufacturers to provide updates to consumers in time, Google even introduced the concept of "functional patch" similar to Windows, allowing the operating system to update some system core components directly through the app store without waiting for the new version of the system or security patch to be pushed.

In fact, "Google mobile phone" is not so unbearable.

At the same time, two less sloppy mobile phones and a new operating system full of future black technology were launched. What kind of obscene operation is Google? In fact, to understand this problem, we must first understand the history of "Google Mobile" and its relationship with the industry.

In 20 10, Google released the first generation of Nexus One phones. It is worth noting that although it was the highest performance Android phone at that time, it was not the "all-around flagship". This is because Nexus One itself is more responsible for displaying the latest Android technology, which is like a ready-made "development platform". As a result, on the one hand, Google equipped this phone with a very general camera, on the other hand, it did set an affordable price.

Performance flagship, equipped with the latest Android system, but taking photos at the same time is average, multimedia performance is average, and the price does not overlap with other flagships ... In addition, Google has chosen to maintain cooperative relations with many mobile phone manufacturers, and the balance and output of "OEM by turns" have never been large. It can be said that in the whole history of Nexus mobile phones, "Google Mobile Phone" rarely really threatened the status of mainstream flagship in the same period. Just a myth between geeks and developers.

However, when Nexus ended and Pixel took over a few years ago, everyone found that "Google Mobile" had changed: it began to pay attention to taking photos and began to carry various non-mainstream Google-owned technologies. Most importantly, Pixel gradually got rid of the cooperative OEM mode, and the price has also increased to the same level as other brand flagships.

So, at that time, many people began to exclaim: Google finally had to "enter the market" directly and compete with other Android phone manufacturers for jobs!

Lost in the East corner, harvested Sang Yu, and Google is playing a big game.

Can Google directly compete with other mobile phone manufacturers for jobs? From the level of R&D and production, they do have this ability. But from the perspective of strategic planning, Google can never do this.

Android Q attracted the participating vendors this time.

After all, for Google now, one thing is far more important than making a few small money on its own mobile phone: further solving the fragmentation of Android system, further unifying the Android ecosystem, and further making all Android phones experience better than iPhone. ...

In order to do this, Google can be said to have taken great pains. On the one hand, it takes advantage of its strong position in overseas markets to force all developers to adapt to the new system, on the other hand, it puts pressure on mobile phone manufacturers to warn them that they must ensure that the new mobile phone is "1 month 1 day" to ensure that the system experience keeps pace with Google.

But in this way, mobile phone manufacturers naturally have reason to be unhappy: system updates are time-consuming and laborious, and they don't make money. Updating the new system for the old model will also affect the sales of the new model. To this end, Google has to attach some additional benefits to the "big stick", such as introducing more vendors to participate in the pre-test of Android, so that everyone can be familiar with the new system in advance; Another example is to simplify the system update process and reduce the workload of manufacturers through technologies such as "Project Treble". Of course, there is more direct, that is, deliberately limiting the market competitiveness of your "Google mobile phone" and avoiding direct competition with Android eco-partners.

It can be said that this Pixel 3a series smartphone is no different from Google's "self-blacking" behavior, but it also gives all other Android phone manufacturers a reassurance:

"I have to tighten the Android ecosystem, but everyone can make money from smartphones, so let's just say."

There is no doubt that artificial intelligence is the era to enter in the next decade, and now it has the meaning of being ready to go, but it does not conflict with Android development at all. Artificial intelligence is a technology and a science, which can be applied to all walks of life and all aspects. Similarly, it can also be applied to mobile phones. In the past two years, many mobile phone manufacturers have launched AI chips, and the application potential of artificial intelligence in mobile phones in the future is huge.

Then some people may worry that Android will be replaced as soon as possible like Saipan in the future. This kind of worry is unnecessary. It is precisely because of Nokia's lessons that major Internet companies are now very crisis-conscious. It's hard to see a situation like Nokia again. Besides, you should know that behind Android and iPhone are Google and Apple. These two rich technology companies are basically dreaming if they want to be subverted. Now if you want to have a third operating system, you must get permission from Google and Apple. Therefore, in the next five to ten years, or even longer, mobile phones will always be the world of Android and iPhone. With the development of technology, the future mobile phone will definitely not be another kind of mobile phone, but may be a new carrier, such as glasses and watches.

In the whole mobile phone market, Android will be the mainstream for a long time to come, so the demand for Android development will always exist and Android development will not be eliminated. However, when everyone has a smart phone, the mobile market will not grow so fast. When your grandparents have smart phones, the growth of smart phones is basically over. Now look at the total number of smart devices in the world, which is basically in a state of slow growth. If we want to correspond, some mobile development jobs will gradually decrease, and the requirements for Android development will become higher and higher. Those technologies are not enough. Some developers who make a living by copying and pasting will eventually be eliminated, while those with real technical strength will get better positions and treatment. In this respect, it will actually be a good thing.

Before answering this question, you must first have a positioning for Android, so that you can know where to work hard in the future.

The characteristic of the first kind of competitors is whether to replace them. Both Apple and Huawei are based on replacing or occupying more markets of each other. Judging from the current market share of Android, the worst case is * * *.

The second type of competitors is characterized by compatibility, that is, this cross-platform solution wants to run a set of code everywhere once and for all. At present, their solutions are more or less problematic, and they are always less interesting than native applications.

Look at the application scenario again:

The current state of companies like APP is basically that the period of rapid development has passed. At present, it is the era of stock competition. More work is to maintain and the position is relatively stable. More demand is how to make the APP run more stably, so talents in this area will continue to be recruited.

Such companies, such as Xiaomi, vivo, OPPO, etc. , mainly selling mobile phones, which is deep customization. This demand will still exist in the next 10 year. According to the interview I contacted, most customization companies will also do the customization needs of other companies, so the demand for this piece is still relatively strong at present, so don't worry too much about the reduction of opportunities.

This piece should be a new concept that Android can continue to survive. The purpose is to make everything networked, which requires a large number of intelligent hardware devices. Looking around, the lowest cost is Android. Of course, for some extreme needs, other systems may be chosen. But some common smart devices are basically Android. Even with HarmonyOS system, their development process is not much different, so it can be erased in a short time.

To sum up, the future of Android is still relatively clear. As long as Google doesn't mess around and takes good care of Android, I believe it can last 10-20 years. My foundation is PC. Windows has been publishing form interaction since 1995. It has been almost 30 years since this year, and it is still being updated. The real development of smart phones began in 2008, and it has been more than ten years now, so I think that with the growth of some people's age, many old programmers will change careers, and new programmers will choose the direction of artificial intelligence, so mobile phones will inevitably have a big gap. So don't give up the research and development of mobile phones and continue to dig deep. It's best to know the whole mobile phone system thoroughly, so that even if you are 50 or 60 years old, as long as you are healthy, there are still a lot of employment opportunities.