What ability should an economist have?

What did the economists of the new Nobel Prize tell us?

Author: look at finance and economics together

Last night, friends in the fields of economy, investment and financial media were all paying attention to an important event, that is, which economist will win the Nobel Prize in Economics, and finally richard thaler of the University of Chicago won the prize. His main research direction is behavioral finance.

Many people don't know what behavioral finance is. To put it bluntly, it is to tap the investment opportunities brought by other people's mistakes. Of course, people are winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, and the theory must be profound. So we might as well give a very simple example to understand behavioral finance. For example, on your way to the movies, you lost your movie ticket. What would you choose? Do you want to buy another ticket or turn around and go home? If you are in love, you will definitely make up a ticket. If it's an old couple, or going to the movies alone, nine times out of ten they will turn around and go home. This is actually a behavioral mistake, because the loss of movie tickets is a fact and belongs to the sunk cost. If you change your original plan, your loss will be even greater, and you will waste your time going out and coming back. So this is the mistake people make because of their hearts.

So is there a similar situation in the investment market? Sure! And many, Seiler's bounded rationality theory, invented psychological accounts to explain how people simplify financial transaction decisions by establishing separate accounts in their minds. For example, when you find 100 yuan, your happiness is definitely not as high as your disappointment when you lose 100 yuan. If your boss gives you 1000 yuan this month, you will deduct 65438+ next month. This person is usually more depressed than before. On the contrary, it is the same to deduct first and then add! In other words, when people own a certain commodity, the evaluation of the same commodity is higher than when they don't own the same commodity. When you buy a stock, you will feel that everything is fine. When you buy a house, you will feel that the house will definitely go up forever. These are opportunities for everyone to make mistakes in their behavior. Points available for investment.

There is also a situation that Sailor put forward as an investment strategy, that is, for example, the parent company's spin-off business is listed independently, and the price of subsidiaries is skyrocketing, but few people pay attention to the parent company, so the price usually remains unchanged. In fact, the parent company often holds a large number of shares in its subsidiaries. At this time, the market made another mistake. Smart investors will buy the shares of the parent company and short the overvalued shares of the subsidiaries to lock in profits. That is, through arbitrage trading, the market deviation caused by irrational excitement can be corrected.

In fact, ordinary investors often make wrong behaviors and eventually become leeks in the eyes of others. For example, technical analysis falls into this category. On the basis of summarizing a large number of previous cases, he summarized personality as * * *, which is only a necessary condition, but as a sufficient condition, he thought that there would be a big rise in B. I didn't know that the last A was only a condition for forming B. Most investors thought it would rise when they saw A, and the result was a big drop in C. But when he explained it to you, he basically picked it out.

The stupidest thing is to catch the banker. There are quite a few books on the market. Tell you how the dealer manipulates the market, and then encourage everyone to go to the market to bite the dealer. Think about it, people have the advantages of capital and information, and they also have the initiative. When they want to launch the market and shut down the network depends on their mood. Even if there is a banker, what is it to bite at this time, isn't it to die? Therefore, these books have undoubtedly enhanced the confidence of investors and turned these people into neurotic leeks. Encourage them to make mistakes in the market. Investing in the wrong way.

You often hear analysts encourage you to buy low and sell high. In fact, statistically speaking, buying low and selling high requires you to be right for every band, but with the increase of the number of operations, your possibility of being right is getting lower and lower. So the usual result is that you run away before the inflation, but add positions before the plunge. Know that the analyst's income is not to help you make money, but to draw commissions from your transactions. So the more you trade, whether you make money or not, he will make money.

As for investment in buying a house, the same is true. Real estate developers have the most houses in their hands, and they are definitely bullish. Pan Shiyi is an exception, because he has long since died, so he is bearish. Some scholars who are very close to the developers use everyone's mentality of buying a house to help them choose real estate speculation. On the one hand, it collects consulting fees, on the other hand, it earns sales rebates from developers. So he is also bullish. Whether you can make money in the end or not, he will make a fortune in the end. In addition, those who have houses in their hands are definitely bullish, and more houses in their hands are even more bullish. Those who are waiting to buy a house are waiting to fall. Therefore, behind the market behavior is a complex interest relationship. And these interests will affect emotions, and emotions will make us make mistakes in the market.

So only paying attention to the price, or feeling the market sentiment, is bound to make mistakes. And if you make a mistake, you will become the target of others' sniper. And why can people like Li Ka-shing Buffett not make mistakes? Because they never guess or predict, their investment decisions are based on comparison. When the yield of bonds is higher than that of stocks, it is of course appropriate to buy bonds. When the stock yield is higher than the bond yield, then you must throw away the bond and increase your holdings. Li Ka-shing sold the property because the rental rate of return was already quite low, so it was more cost-effective for him to use the money to buy assets in Europe. As for the early sale here, it doesn't matter if you lose some money. The pound there has also gone up a lot in a year.