The petroleum energy of the earth. How long can we use it?

According to the data of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as of 20 18, there were 1.497 trillion barrels of oil in the world (the volume of crude oil per barrel was about 159 liters according to the world average proportion of Arabian light crude oil), of which 79.4% were in OPEC countries and 64.5% were in OPEC. Venezuela and Iran, two sanctioned countries, hold 30% of OPEC's reserves. Nigeria and Libya hold another 5% of oil, which puts 35% of the world's oil at underground risk.

However, although the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has the largest share of the world's oil, most of the new oil supply will come from the United States in the next decade. Because of American shale oil technology, the United States has become the largest oil producer.

2. Oil demand growth

The growth of oil demand will slow down in the next few years. However, the slowdown in demand growth does not mean that demand growth is zero, and the voice of "oil peaking" is still far away. Therefore, although the world may use 654.38 billion barrels of oil every day at present, according to EIA's estimation, the oil consumption of 20654.38+0654.38+ 10,000 barrels per day will increase on average. By 2020, it is expected to increase by 6.5438+0.4 million barrels per day. However, these forecasts are often adjusted, and the demand growth forecast has been lowered in recent weeks, because analysts predict that the economy is weak, so the demand stems from the Sino-US trade war.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicts that the oil demand will increase by 7.3 million barrels from 20 19 to 2023 and by14.5 million barrels from 20 19 to 2040. This means that by 2040, the world will use nearly 42 billion barrels of oil every year.

Oil consumption in countries around the world

At present, oil consumes 1 100 million barrels per day.

Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that the global average daily consumption in 20 19 was 96.92 million barrels, and the top 10 consumers accounted for 60% of the total consumption. Nearly 65438+ billion barrels a day.

According to the average oil price of Brent crude oil of 60 dollars per barrel today, this is equivalent to consuming 5.8 billion dollars.

The top three countries in oil consumption are the United States (20%), China (13%) and India (5%), accounting for more than one third of the world's consumption. Of these three countries, only the United States is the main oil producer. Saudi Arabia and Russia are two of the three largest oil producers in the world, ranking fifth and sixth respectively in terms of consumption.

Therefore, with the known 1.5 trillion barrels of crude oil, 4 1 billion barrels per day can still be used, and the proven oil reserves will not be used until 2060. But with the increase of newly discovered oil and the progress of oil recovery technology, human beings don't have to worry.

World oil reserves

Oil can be used for about 50 years, which Xiao Youping learned in the textbook. Xiao Youping once believed it, but after the university chose to study oil and gas, his understanding changed. Small oil bottle wants to say that with the development of exploration and development technology and the continuous improvement of geological understanding in the oil industry, the problem of oil resource reuse 100-200 should not be great, for the following reasons.

1. What are the broad petroleum resources? Petroleum is the general name of oil and gas resources. According to different storage forms and oil products, petroleum resources can be divided into conventional oil and unconventional oil (heavy oil, heavy oil, shale oil and tight oil). Natural gas resources can also be divided into conventional natural gas and unconventional natural gas (including shale gas, tight gas, coalbed methane, combustible ice, etc. , are the hottest in recent 10 years).

These oil resources are only the types discovered by human beings so far. Perhaps with the continuous improvement of understanding, human beings have discovered new types of oil resources in unknown areas and unknown regions, which is unknown.

2. How many oil resources are there in the world at present? Then, we can calculate that the global remaining recoverable reserves of conventional oil are 452.3 billion tons, and the domestic average is 1.255 cubic meters of natural gas = 1 ton of crude oil. Natural gas has been mined 62.9 trillion cubic meters, about 5065438+billion tons, and the remaining recoverable reserves of natural gas are 43865438+billion tons.

In addition, according to the annual increase in reserves submitted by oil and gas exploration, the amount of conventional oil and natural gas to be discovered in the future will reach 306.5 billion tons.

With the improvement of exploration and development technology, unconventional oil and gas resources are an important supplement to conventional oil and gas resources. According to statistics, the total recoverable amount of unconventional oil and gas resources in the world is 583.4 billion tons.

At present, the cost of unconventional oil and gas exploration is the lowest, and shale gas is the most beneficial. In the United States, the cost of shale gas has dropped to a very low level, equivalent to $ 28.3-42.5 per barrel of oil, which is lower than the old oil fields in eastern China. /kloc-in the past 0/0 years, China has also intensified the exploration and development of shale gas, and established two shale gas production bases, Fuling and Weiyuan. It is reported that geological resources have been discovered in western Hubei.

In addition to the discovery in shale gas field, China has been at the leading level in theoretical innovation and development technology of natural gas, water and substance (combustible ice) accumulation in the sea area. In 20 17, China successfully conducted the first combustible ice test in Shenhu sea area in the northern South China Sea, which indicates that China has this ancient and young resource development capability. Why is combustible ice an ancient and young resource? The old one lies in its long geological age, and the young one lies in its late discovery and research by human beings, so it is also called the future energy.

This future energy source has great potential. In terms of reserves, combustible ice is very rich, about 128 times of the remaining natural gas reserves, and its total organic carbon resources are equivalent to twice the carbon content of coal, oil and natural gas known in the world. Only by exploring the distribution of combustible ice on the seabed can humans use 1000 years.

3. How many years can oil resources be used? Given the remaining resources and the annual global resource consumption, this is a simple calculation problem.

According to calculation, the world's remaining recoverable oil resources are about 9000- 1000 billion tons. According to the global crude oil output of 4.382 billion tons, global oil can still be mined for 200 years.

According to the global natural gas output of 5.3 trillion cubic meters, the global natural gas can be mined 160 years or more.

In Qian Fan, there are hundreds of races. With the rapid development of energy technology, it is believed that mankind will find more kinds of oil and gas resources. At present, it is not very high to effectively improve the oil recovery rate of old oil fields. Oil and gas resources will last for nearly 200 years, just like dazzling, never stopping!

A long time ago, there was a so-called theory of oil exhaustion or limited resources.

The main points are as follows:

1) The resources on the earth are limited;

2) If people use it at the current speed, it won't be long before they run out;

Because of the extreme importance of oil to modern industry, many people have raised the question: How many years can oil last? It is estimated that if people on earth don't explore new oil fields now and their consumption remains unchanged, it will take another 50 years (BP Oil Company released the World Energy Statistics Report in June 20 16). At the end of 20 17, 20 16, the world's proven crude oil reserves were 270.7 billion tons, an increase of 0.9% over the previous year, and the reserve-production ratio was 50. )。 In fact, there are many similar estimates, about decades to hundreds of years, but in fact such estimates are very unreliable.

But what is the actual situation?

The annual growth of crude oil storage far exceeds the annual growth of crude oil consumption.

In addition, crude oil consumption changes every year. For example, in the past 50 years, the consumption of crude oil has increased many times. If it had been estimated 50 years ago, it might have been used up long ago.

For example, in 1987, the global proven crude oil reserves were 93 billion tons, and the global crude oil output was 3.092 billion tons. Therefore, the mining life at that time was only about 30 years. In fact, the latest data of 20 17 shows that the proven storage capacity is 2,707 tons, which has nearly tripled.

The average daily consumption of crude oil in 20 17 years is close to 1 100 million barrels, about 1300 tons.

On the other hand, the world energy structure is also changing, and new energy sources are gradually being discovered and replaced. The importance of crude oil is declining. But in the short to medium term, the position of crude oil is unshakable.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the marginal exploitation cost of crude oil is increasing, such as shale gas; Because simple oil has almost been recycled, many of the rest are more expensive to recycle. But technology is also improving, and technological progress will alleviate this situation. But can you keep up? It's hard to say, but don't worry too much, energy is conserved;

Energy is a science. If you really want to understand, there are many parts to learn. Personally, I don't have to worry about whether the crude oil can be used up. I've used it all my life anyway. Problems in development will naturally be solved in development. There are experts to solve these things.

As the famous former Saudi Arabian oil minister ahmed zaki yamani predicted when talking about the future of energy transformation, "The end of the Stone Age is not due to the exhaustion of stone materials, but the oil age will also end before the exhaustion of crude oil".

Oil is the blood of industry and the lifeblood of the modern world. Oil wells all over the world extract about 1 100 million barrels of crude oil from underground every year, and the amount of oil consumed by each country is the same. At this rate, how long can we continue to extract oil from underground without running out of supply?

Naturally, it is impossible for us to extract the oil of the whole earth from one well. There are countless oil wells all over the earth's surface: some are active and some are exhausted. Every oil well follows the production curve, and the production rises and stabilizes in a few years, and then drops to zero. This is the so-called harbert curve, which was put forward by martin king Hubert, a geologist of Shell Oil Company, in 1956.

Hubert also extrapolated his curve to global oil production. Oil companies first find large oil fields that are easy to exploit, and then move to smaller and deeper oil fields when the big oil fields decline. New technologies also continue to make previously untapped oil reserves feasible. The overall curve predicts that global output will rise, peak and then decline. However, before this gradual decline begins, mankind will reach an oil peak.

Imagine a big bottle full of water. At first, it poured cup after cup effortlessly, until finally it could only pour a little. In the end, you have to lean heavily to pour water. Peak oil is the last full cup. Demand continues to grow, while the non-renewable oil reserves on the earth are decreasing. Individual countries have reached the peak of oil. American production peaked at 197 1. With the stabilization of global oil production in 2005, some analysts believe that the world oil has bottomed out.

In 2006, Cambridge Energy Research Association predicted that there were still 3.74 trillion barrels of oil on the earth, which was three times the estimation of peak oil supporters. The association predicts that global oil production will reach its peak in the middle of 2 1 century. What will happen after peak oil? The worst oil crisis predictions include soaring natural gas prices, the end of globalization, widespread anarchy and ruthless exploitation of previously protected drilling wells.

Oil supply can't meet the global oil demand forever, so new energy sources and usage methods are needed. Even though technology allows us to get every drop of oil on the earth, the increasingly scarce and rising prices need extensive changes before human beings really run out of oil.

We have been taught from an early age that fossil energy is non-renewable. More than a decade ago, it was said that oil could last for 20 to 30 years. Today, it is said that oil reserves can last for 30 to 50 years. In short, this oil reserve seems to be very tight, but with the development of human civilization, the dependence on fossil energy is increasing and the consumption is increasing, but the oil reserve seems to be increasing. Therefore, many people are suspicious of this matter and think that the shortage of oil and energy is a conspiracy theory, but it is not.

With the progress of human science and technology, more and more oil reserves have been exploited, even exceeding the oil consumption in previous decades. Therefore, it always gives people the illusion that oil is always in short supply, but with the consumption of oil reserves, it is increasing, which is also one of the reasons.

The world's total oil reserves are estimated to be about 654.38+0.8 billion tons. If the annual oil consumption is about 4 billion tons, then this oil is enough for human use for more than 40 years. However, with the exploitation and utilization of human beings, we are constantly discovering more oil reserves. For example, in 19, the newly proven geological reserves of petroleum in China exceeded 800 million tons. Although oil resources are considered as non-renewable resources, the key problem is that we haven't surveyed all the oil resources, and we will find them when we use them.

At present, there are two reasons for the formation of oil: the first is that organic matter forms oil. This view holds that ancient animals and plants were buried deep underground after death, and organic matter was decomposed into oil and coal through special environmental temperature and pressure. The reason for this fossil energy is that both oil and coal are non-renewable resources, and the more you use, the better. The second is that inorganic substances form oil. This view holds that inorganic substances such as carbon and hydrogen in the earth react under special circumstances to form fossil energy. For this reason, oil and coal are renewable energy sources, and they are constantly formed with the use and consumption.

In fact, the dependence of human development on fossil energy is a bad trend, especially the use of oil and coal, which will produce harmful substances and endanger the ecological environment of the earth. Now the global greenhouse effect is rising, because a large number of fossil energy sources are used to emit greenhouse gases, and at the same time, due to the reduction of the area of developed forests, photosynthesis will be weakened, and the consumption of carbon dioxide will naturally decrease.

With the development, the energy structure is becoming more and more diversified, especially the use of clean energy is increasing. If solar energy, wind energy, nuclear energy and so on, especially the controlled nuclear fusion studied by human beings, are really realized one day, then there is no need to rely on fossil energy, because the efficiency of using nuclear energy is very high. Although it has been advertised that oil is about to run out, the real situation is that more and more oil reserves have been discovered, and the current oil can be used for decades. Of course, no one knows what the energy structure will be like in a few decades, and whether more oil reserves will be found.

There is a verification method about the "inorganic matter generation theory" of oil, because if the formation of oil has nothing to do with living things, then oil will also form on other celestial bodies if the conditions are met. Then in space exploration, taking the celestial bodies in the solar system as an example, it is found that there is oil stored on Mars or the moon, so the oil is probably formed by inorganic substances. Of course, this kind of demonstration is not absolute.

But in any case, oil is the energy we rely on at present and even in the next few decades, and the great development of industry cannot be separated from the use of oil.

I provide a data for your reference. On June 20 19, BP released a report. At present, the world's proven oil reserves are about1729.7 billion barrels, of which Venezuela has the largest oil reserves, reaching 303 billion barrels, followed by Saudi Arabia's 297 billion barrels, and then Canada's 177.

Considering that the daily oil consumption of human beings is about 1 100 million barrels, this 1.7297 million barrels of oil is enough for human beings to use for 47 years, but 47 years is definitely more than that, because human beings have not yet figured out how much oil there is on the earth. With the progress of geological exploration, the global oil reserves will certainly continue to increase. It's easy to say how much it can be increased, but judging from the speed of human consumption.

In addition, there is another problem. Generally speaking, an oil field will be abandoned when it is mined to 40%, because it costs more to go to the back. Under natural pressure, only 65,438+00% is the best part to be mined, and the rest needs to be pressurized by water injection. Because the oil behind is very viscous, it is too difficult to transport, dehydrate and collect, so the oil company collects 40%.

Some American companies began to turn to shale oil many years ago. Shale oil is a special kind of oil, and its exploitation cost is relatively high. However, the financial crisis in 2008 caused the international crude oil price to soar, and the exploitation of shale oil became profitable. But both shale oil and ordinary oil will be replaced sooner or later, because with the decrease of total oil, their prices will become more and more expensive, ranging from decades to 10.

How much oil reserves there are on the earth, there was no accurate value for a long time before, because people's exploration technology for the earth's oil reserves is constantly developing.

For example, in 1930s, people generally used the theories of gravity, seismic refraction and sedimentology to detect oil. At first, the proven reserves are very low, so it is impossible to form the statistics of global total reserves. In 1960s, plate theory and seismic exploration superposition technology were adopted, which greatly improved the level of petroleum exploration. By 1987, the proven reserves of crude oil in the world are 93 billion tons. After entering the new century, people have made breakthroughs in the exploration of small fault blocks and subtle oil and gas reservoirs by using information technology, which jumped to 270 billion tons in 20 17, a three-fold increase over the 1980s. However, in recent years, the exploration potential has been fully tapped, and the revision speed of global oil reserves has also slowed down. At present, the proven reserves of the earth's oil resources recognized by the world are 270 billion tons.

At the same time, with the scale adjustment of petroleum consumption industry, especially the development of new energy and the exploitation of oil shale, the pressure of consumption growth of petroleum resources has gradually eased. Based on the current proven global oil reserves of 270 billion tons, excluding the exploited crude oil of about 654.38+03 billion tons, and now the global direct consumption of oil is 3.3 billion tons, then the global oil resources will be exhausted in the next 40 years or so.

From a global perspective, the spatial distribution of oil resources is extremely unbalanced. The Middle East accounts for the highest proportion, reaching about 48%, mainly concentrated in Asian countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman, Qatar and Syria. Followed by Latin America, accounting for about 19%, mostly in Venezuela. The third place is North America, accounting for about 13%, mostly in Canada. The remaining 20% is mainly concentrated in Russia, Africa and Asia Pacific countries. There are relatively few oil resources in other areas.

Petroleum belongs to traditional fossil energy and non-renewable energy. The pollutant discharge of petrochemical industry has always been large in quantity and intensity. From the perspective of environmental protection, it is necessary to constantly innovate pollution control and treatment technologies, reduce pollutant emissions, improve the ratio of crude oil production to investment, and improve energy production and use efficiency. On the other hand, from the perspective of sustainable energy utilization, we should vigorously develop clean energy and biomass energy, increase their proportion in primary energy, and achieve the purpose of adjusting and optimizing the energy structure. This is the fundamental way to effectively deal with the oil resource crisis.

This is a nerve-racking question! In the past, people thought that underground oil was formed by long-term evolution after animals and plants rotted. Modern science believes that oil is the "sweat" of the earth's thermal energy movement. But no matter how it is formed, no one can change the trend of less and less use! Sometimes many of us talk together. Once the oil runs out, all the cars stop, and the output of fertilizers and plastics drops sharply. At that time, we went back to ancient society, riding horses and donkeys, burning firewood and weeds ... According to statistics from western countries, the oil reserves on the earth are about10.729 billion barrels, which can be used by human beings for about 40 to 50 years. Seeing these statistics is really worrying! It seems that we must look for new energy sources.

How much oil is there on the earth? How long will it take to provide the earth for mankind?

Since the 1980s, we have known that the world's oil can be used by human beings for about 50 years. Of course, this year is already 2020. According to the 1980s, it has been 40 years. What is the current reserve situation? How long can humans use it? If there is no oil, what should human beings do? Let's make a simple analysis.

How much oil is left in the world? The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has 12 member countries, and is the earliest and most influential raw material country and export organization in the world. Its purpose is to "coordinate and unify the oil policies and prices of member countries and ensure the stability of the oil market". Of course, the development of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries seems to be a bit stale, which conflicts with the ideas of some member countries, so Qatar withdrew its troops from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in 2065,438+2009,65,438+0.

20 19 June, BP released the report "Review of World Energy Statistics in 20 19", showing that the global oil reserves are1729.7 billion barrels, which has little change compared with the data published earlier. According to the current global demand, it can be mined for 50 years. Saudi Arabia has adjusted from 266.2 billion barrels in 20 17 to 297.7 billion barrels at the end of 20 18, but it is still slightly lower than Venezuela's 303 billion barrels. Canada ranks third with 168 billion barrels, Iran ranks fourth with 156 billion barrels and Iraq ranks fifth with 147 billion barrels.

Distribution of member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

You should be curious. Venezuela ranks first, but there are always few Venezuelan voices about oil exports in the world. In fact, this is no wonder, because Venezuela's oil belongs to high-sulfur crude oil, with a sulfur content as high as 5.5%, and the problems of catalytic processing and secondary processing are becoming more and more serious, and the environmental protection problem is becoming more and more serious. The sulfur content of Brent crude oil in North Sea is 0.37%, which belongs to high-quality crude oil, so the price of Brent crude oil in North Sea is an important reference index for the global oil market!

API value and sulfur content of some crude oils. The farther to the left, the more oil; The farther to the right and down, the better the oil.

Venezuela's crude oil contains 5.5% sulfur, and the refining cost is very high, whether it is economic cost or environmental protection cost. Therefore, although Venezuela is rich in oil reserves, its voice is not high!

Of course, back to the topic of how many years oil can be used, it is actually like nuclear fusion, which will always be 50 years. According to the current consumption 1 100 million barrels/year, it is about 47 years, so there is no problem in 50 years!

Can the oil be used up? In fact, there is not much oil that has been fooled since the 1980 s. It has been fooled for 40 years, and it is said that it can be used for 50 years every year. Just like a scam, it is still a scam to drive up prices. But in fact, this has something to do with the origin of oil. If it is caused by biological organic matter, it is really used up. After all, the carbon accumulated in geological history is limited, but if it is caused by inorganic factors, the problem is different. Although limited, this is from a human point of view.

The education we have received has always been the organic origin of oil, and its evidence is very sufficient. Petroleum fraction has the universal optical activity of biological organic matter, but inorganic matter does not. However, if it is heated to 300 degrees Celsius, the inorganic environment will easily exceed 300 degrees Celsius. The highest temperature oil field in the world is only 100 degrees Celsius, which is the most obvious evidence!

Another way of saying this is that all kinds of hydrocarbons that make up oil appear in modern and modern sediments, that is to say, even in modern sediments, the production of oil continues, but this process is a bit long, and we can't wait until modern sediments become oil!

The theory of inorganic genesis comes from The Theory of Inorganic Genesis, which was co-authored by astronomer Thomas Gold and Russian petroleum geologist Nikolai Kudrya Vchev. They believe that when the earth was born, there were a lot of hydrocarbons, which gradually formed oil in high-pressure rock formations and enriched with time, thus forming oil fields!

As for the optical activity, the two bosses think that it is just contaminated by microorganisms.

However, the origin of modern petroleum is still dominated by organic origin, because inorganic origin can't explain that almost all oil fields were born in sedimentary rocks, and can't explain the phenomenon of biomarkers widely distributed in petroleum, such as marsalane, phytane, sterane, halothane, terpenoids and lighter isotopes!

Therefore, as people who eat melons, we support the organic cause!

What if the oil runs out? To understand this problem, we must know what oil is used for. Oil has two main functions, one is as energy, the other is as chemical raw materials (including daily use), and of course, there is an auxiliary function as lubricating oil!

It doesn't seem difficult to replace functional energy, because electric energy can replace its energy in most occasions, such as electric vehicles in full swing at present. However, under modern conditions, there is one place that cannot be replaced, and that is the aerospace industry, because electricity cannot be used to launch rockets for the time being. However, it seems possible to diversify modern rocket fuels. For example, the popular liquid oxygen kerosene can be replaced by liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen, and the methane liquid oxygen rocket developed by Iron Man Musk.

There is also an industrial raw material, including our daily chemical fiber and plastic products, as well as various industrial composite materials. Theoretically, this can be solved by synthesis, but the price is quite high, but it can be used for many years as fuel oil saved by chemical industry, so it is solved!

The last one is lubricating oil. It is estimated that there should be nothing to replace this!

Of course, only a few key functions are listed above, such as synthetic rubber in automobile industry (and cable insulation), various extracts in pharmaceutical industry, daily cleaning products and cosmetics. The refined residual asphalt is also an important paving material for traffic road construction!

Therefore, oil is irreplaceable for the time being, and it can only be supported by fuel saving!

This question is really difficult to answer, but I think this resource will always be exhausted!