Hengli Refining and Chemical Integration Recruitment

Investment Comments: Affected by the breakdown of OPEC+negotiations, international oil prices rose above $77 on Monday, hitting a three-year high. The focus of the market began to shift to whether the differences between OPEC+will expand. It is expected that the negative interest rate caused by the uncertainty of OPEC+output policy will form downward pressure in the short term, but the duration may not be too long. Whether OPEC+will hold consultations again before the scheduled meeting in early August deserves close attention. In terms of cost, the international oil price has been running above 70 yuan/barrel recently. Although there is still speculation about the future supply adjustment of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, in the short term, considering the arrival of the summer tourist season, it is expected that refined oil consumption will support oil prices. Under the background of the gradual recovery of global economic data, it is suggested to pay attention to the leading targets of the industrial chain: China Petrochemical (600028), CNPC Engineering (600339), Rong Sheng Petrochemical (002493), Hengyi Petrochemical (000703), Oriental Hong Sheng (00030 1) and Satellite Petrochemical (002648). Give the suggestion of "over-matching".

Risk warning: oil prices and chemical prices fluctuate greatly; Geopolitical influence

(investment consultant Lin registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 15 100004)

Source of research report:

The research report said: "Petrochemical industry: oil prices promote the performance of upstream sectors, and once again verify the profitability of large refining and chemical companies-2021semi-annual report outlook"

Name of analyst: Xie Jianbin.

Release date: 202 1-7-8

Publisher: Shen Wan Hongyuan

Details:

The price of crude oil rose year-on-year and month-on-month, and the price of refined oil rose: the average price of Brent crude oil in April, May and June of 202/kloc-0 was 65.3, 68.3 and 73.4 USD/barrel, respectively, with the fluctuation range of 62.2-76.2 USD, and the average price of 202 1Q2 was 69.65438 USD/barrel. 202 1Q2 gasoline and diesel prices were raised four times and lowered zero times, and the cumulative gasoline and diesel prices were raised by 600 yuan/ton and 580 yuan/ton.

Singapore's oil refining spread, ethylene cracking, PDH, propylene acrylate, coal-to-methanol and polyester industry chain spread increased month-on-month: 202 1Q2 Singapore's catalytic cracking spread was 3.9 USD/barrel, and the oil refining spread increased by 0.4 USD/barrel. The average spread of ethylene from 202 1Q2 naphtha pyrolysis was $274/ton, up $84/ton from the previous month. The average spread of propane dehydrogenation was $388/ton, up $64/ton from the previous month; The price difference between acrylic acid and propylene was 37,065,438+0 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan/ton from the previous month; The spread of butyl acrylate was 7259 yuan/ton, down 65438 yuan +074 yuan/ton from the previous month. The average price difference between butadiene and naphtha was $449/ton, an increase of1$02/ton from last month. In terms of polyester industrial chain, the price difference between 202 1Q2PX and naphtha was USD 254/ton, an increase of USD 44/ton from the previous month; PTA-0.655*PX spread is 552 yuan/ton, up by 33 yuan/ton from the previous month;

The average spread of POY-0.86*PTA-0.34*MEG was 1605 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the previous month.

202 1 The forecast of the second quarter results of key companies in the industry is as follows: The upward oil price will drive the profitability of the upstream mining sector to continue to improve, and the refining profit will improve. The increase in domestic oil prices will release the flexibility of performance, and the estimated net profit is 25.3 billion yuan (up 39 billion yuan year-on-year, QoQ-9%); Cosl- Thanks to the domestic policy of increasing oil and gas reserves and production and the rebound of oil prices, the estimated net profit is 740 million (+29% year-on-year,+308% quarter-on-quarter); Offshore oil project-FPSO's main business orders are good, and the workload continues to increase. The estimated net profit is 350 million (Yoy+472%, Qoq+ 192%). Refining-chemical integration enterprises benefit from the rising oil price and the stable profits brought by industry consolidation. The second phase of Rong Sheng Petrochemical-Zhejiang Petrochemical was put into production gradually, the profit of refining and chemical integration was stable, and the price difference of polyester industry chain widened. The estimated net profit is 4 billion (Yoy+ 102%, QoQ+53%). Hengyi Petrochemical-Brunei Project benefits from the widening price difference of refined oil and the prosperity of polyester filament, with an estimated net profit of 654.38+0.5 billion (Yoy+38%, QoQ+24%); Hengli Petrochemical-Refining Integration has a stable profit, and PTA benefits from the cost advantage brought by industry consolidation, with an estimated net profit of 4.4 billion (Yoy+30%, QoQ+7%); Oriental Hong Sheng-polyester price spread has expanded, with an estimated net profit of 700 million (up 830 million year-on-year, QoQ+16%); The price difference between Tongkun shares and beneficiary polyester has expanded, and the estimated net profit is 2.3 billion (Yoy+29 1%, QoQ+33%). In terms of petrochemical enterprises, the spread between satellite petrochemical-acrylic acid and ester remained high, and the production and sales volume increased month-on-month. The estimated net profit is 654.38+03 billion (+654.38+075% year-on-year and +654.38+03% quarter-on-quarter). Guanghui Energy-benefiting from the rising prices of coal, methanol, natural gas and other resource products, the estimated net profit is 570 million (Yoy+47%, QoQ-29%); Baofeng Energy-the company has benefited from the rising coke boom, and its estimated net profit is 654.38+06 billion (+26% year-on-year and -7% quarter-on-quarter).

Investment suggestion: 1) From the perspective of large-scale refining and chemical enterprises integrating competitiveness, profit stability and production capacity, Rong Sheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Dongfang Hong Sheng and Tongkun are mainly recommended. 2) From the cost advantage of ethane to ethylene and the benefit of propylene industrial chain, satellite petrochemical is mainly recommended. 3) The rebound of oil price, the cost advantage and long-term growth of coal chemical industry, and Baofeng Energy is mainly recommended. 4) Elasticity of sharp rise in oil price, meanwhile, it is suggested to pay attention to China Petroleum, Guanghui Energy, cosl, CNOOC Engineering and PetroChina Engineering. From the perspective of reducing overseas upstream capital expenditure and increasing China's energy security.

Risk warning: oil prices and chemical prices fluctuate greatly; Geopolitical influence.

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The title of this information column is Chief Interpretation of New Wealth. The main content is that our investment consultant interprets the research report of the new wealth award-winning analyst, which is the reprocessing of the research report by our investment consultant. Non-new wealth analysts interpret related companies, industries or markets themselves. Hereby explain.