Weining recruitment

# Investment Strategy of Computer Industry in the Fourth Quarter of 2020

According to the angle of value investment, this paper briefly combs some investment directions of computer industry. Similar to the new creation, the track with partial theme, non-market competition, relatively full performance expectation and valuation is directly taken away by us. The above content, from internal discussions and exchanges, is more important. I hope they will not be published. You can read it several times:

1, cloud computing

1. 1. Platform company: UFIDA and Kingdee are platform-based integrated enterprise management software systems, including not only finance, but also eight modules. In the past, UFIDA had many private clouds, and its revenue was growing in development and delivery, because there was no good native cloud development platform in China before, but it existed in the United States before 14, and both Microsoft and saleforce did it. Kingdee pushed Tianyun last year, that is, it turned to PAAS, and UFIDA is also doing it. Both companies will be around 1 1xPS next year. PAAS platform needs too much R&D energy and is suitable for long-term holding.

UFIDA Network: There are many big customers, and there are many small and medium-sized customers in Kingdee, so there are many UFIDA private clouds. The disadvantages of private cloud are obvious now and will gradually change in the future. After all, private cloud doesn't enjoy the advantages of cloud computing, so it can't be automatically upgraded, and the operation and maintenance cost is high, and the upgrade is very troublesome. Customers need some time to change their patterns and preferences. The proportion of private cloud in Alibaba Cloud is increasing, reaching 30% at the highest, and will decline in the long run. Amazon has only 10%. It is expected that UFIDA will have more space than Kingdee in the future, but in the short term, Kingdee's current customer structure is better and its valuation is similar. If you are optimistic about Alibaba, I think the biggest attraction is the cloud. Ali is even grabbing part of Amazon's share in IAAS. After years of high R&D investment, Ali's technology has been leading at many levels.

1.2, vertical company: Guanglianda was the first to come out and wanted to build a comprehensive platform company. Now the income is 4 billion, and it will reach 7 billion in the next 3-5 years. Suitable for holding, the cost performance of buying is not as good as UFIDA and Kingdee. The reason is that when the company expands in the direction of architecture, it will meet many powerful opponents, and the expansion speed may not be as fast as expected. Wei Meng and Youzan are doing saas services in the retail industry. It is better to have praised products. The boss is a product, and the product layout is better than Wei Meng. Small and medium-sized enterprises have simple needs. They first started from marketing and entered supply chain management, logistics management and financial services. Saas providers need to provide more comprehensive services.

2. Financial IT

2. 1, bank IT: a development trend is to turn to distribution. In the past, IBM was the mainstay, and the analysis of big data was not enough. There are problems with its own architecture and format. Many domestic companies have done a good job in database. Ant is a complete set of intelligent analysis system focusing on distributed database and big data analysis. There is no difference with the performance of foreign companies, which needs time to verify. Most data warehouses are historical data, so it is better to analyze the data. Therefore, in recent years, bank IT has developed vigorously. On behalf of companies such as Yuxin Technology, Longmingliang Technology and Tianyang Technology, the growth rate is OK. The disadvantage of bank IT business model is that state-owned banks do their own work and outsource projects, and the gross profit margin is low, which is 20% in the north of Beijing and less than 40% for a long time, with an average of 30%. At this stage, everyone earns high-growth money in the industry as a whole, but the overall IT strength of the bank is relatively strong, so it is more of a phased growth.

2.2. Brokerage it: Hang Seng electronic products are strong, IT is transforming into a platform, and it has a high market share in trading, asset management and wealth management. Through endogenous+extension, a set of framework of technology+data platform is constructed. Although the new product has no absolute monopoly advantage, it is the most promising company to become a platform. Hang Seng expanded against the trend and recruited 1 1,000 people throughout the year. With the new asset management regulations and the reform of GEM registration system, it was more difficult to upgrade GEM last year than in science and technology innovation board. The new income is at least 400 million, and the net profit is expected to be 654.38+0.3 billion this year and 654.38+0.7 billion next year, 43-70 times that of history. The compound growth rate in the next three years is close to 40%, and the valuation is currently 50 times that of early next year, which is still acceptable. As for the development space of the industry, you can see from an article I sent down that the IT expenditure of our entire securities industry last year was 20 billion, only one third of that of JPMorgan Chase. Moreover, at present, the profit growth of brokerage firms is also very good, and there are many policies to promote it, which is also conducive to the rapid development of brokerage IT in this regard.

3. Smart cars

Long-term direction is no problem. The car is driven by Tesla to multi-domain architecture. Before the realization of autonomous driving, the field of intelligent cockpit was easier to cut in and the industry grew rapidly. The popularity of autonomous driving below L3 is very fast. It is a crisis for domestic enterprises to choose L2.5 below 30w for Tesla. The locomotive central control panel shows that it has experienced high growth and serious profit decline in previous years, and now it has entered the second round of high growth in the intelligent cockpit, with high gross profit margin and rapid increase in ADAS penetration. However, OEM manufacturers have strong bargaining power. In a few years, such as 2022, there may be fierce competition and new price wars, especially hardware. The development path of Zhongke Chuangda is no problem, but the valuation is not cheap now.

4. Others

4. 1, Weining Health: medical informationization, and the overall growth rate is relatively fast. The research and development strength of medical information enterprises is weak, and they also lack corresponding talents. It will take 65,438+00 years to completely switch to the cloud native architecture. The turning point of any industry turning to the cloud depends on when the biggest customer will go to the cloud. There are almost no top three companies now. Finance is similar, but financial customers have strong ability to pay, superimposed capital market reform, and the cloud is faster. For Weining's health, it is a critical stage at present. The industry is paying attention to the company's cloud transfer. Once it exceeds expectations, it will be very bullish and more logical in the short term, but the industrial data does not verify the company's idea of cloud transfer.

4.2, 5G empowerment: 5G empowerment is not the most critical for many industries, and it is difficult to bring explosive growth. The key depends on the development of the industry itself. For example, automatic driving can achieve L0-L3 only by bicycle intelligence. For example, cloud games, the biggest problem is that there are not enough edge nodes, and the matching of high-quality content has not kept up; In other words, Wang Shun has infrastructure and no content, while game companies have content and no infrastructure. The general direction is right. At present, we can closely follow Tencent's progress.

4.3. Roadside equipment: The business model of V2X is immature, and the problems of investment and income have not been well solved. At present, it is mainly a pilot project.

4.4. Security: Haikang Dahua has not grown much. Even if we expand into other fields, there is nothing like security. So don't give too high a valuation, you can look at investment opportunities from the perspective of dividend yield and new business valuation. Then, it is important to buy cheaply.

4.5. Industrial Internet (big industry and small company): China is relatively backward in purchasing, online trading and logistics, and there will be a lot of room for intelligent transformation in traditional fields in the future. JD。 COM's industrial products are growing rapidly, and B2B will be better in the future if it is laid out in advance. The steel and silver e-commerce companies selected as the standard have large fluctuations in steel prices, and many state-owned enterprises in steel enterprises have strong bargaining power, poor cash flow and low profit margins. But after years of exploration, B2B steel procurement has become the biggest leader. Guolian Company is mainly engaged in B2B procurement e-commerce platform in coating industry, with small industry, few suppliers and many private enterprises. The penetration rate of online procurement is only about 5%, and 20% is relatively easy to see, especially for solving logistics and financial problems, and it is easy to expand horizontally. In the next two years, the growth rate will be high and there will be no clear competitors. In the short term, there will be a problem of small non-reduction.

4.6, industrial software: optimistic about vertical track companies, such as central control technology, the domestic market share is the first, the share of foreign companies will be further reduced, it will be much easier to do software on the central control system. There are many classifications, but there is no particularly good target. Keep watching.

4.7. Innovation: The growth is OK, but the valuation is hard to give. Because there is no market competition and marketization, ChinaSoft will make a profit of 800 million next year, and the market will give a valuation according to its beliefs.

4.8. Jinshan Office: The valuation is already very optimistic. At the end of this year, there were only160,000 paying users, and now the market value has hidden the expectation of 40 million.