Where are the investment opportunities in the automobile industry in 2020?

[? A billion euro guide? ]? Under the dual effects of market winter and capital winter, the head enterprises in most markets have been highlighted, and only a few areas such as autonomous driving, car networking and automobile aftermarket still have blue ocean opportunities.

Author Zhang

Editor zhangyan

20 19 China's automobile market and capital market are experiencing a "cold winter".

According to the data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 20 19, the cumulative sales volume of automobiles in China was 25.769 million, down 8.2% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of passenger cars was 265,438+0,444,000, down 9.6% year-on-year.

At the same time, IT orange data shows that since 20 17 years, the global investment has been declining for two consecutive years. By 20 19, the investment amount also showed a double-digit decline. Back to the automobile industry, since 20 18, the amount and quantity of investment in this industry have shown an obvious downward trend.

The "cold winter" is still going on, and a large number of start-ups are dying out in 20 19. It is precisely because of this that by 2020, in the entire automobile industry, the head enterprises in most market segments have become prominent, and the competition pattern has gradually become clear, such as the technology travel market and the new energy automobile market.

Although the concentration of most markets is increasing, with the development of technology, there are still some market competition situations that are still unclear. Autonomous driving and automotive aftermarket are such blue ocean markets, and there are new possibilities in the future.

So, for investors who focus on the automobile market, where should they invest their money?

Capital continues to flow to the head enterprises.

Recently, some investors in the automobile industry told Yiou Automobile that their investment direction will turn to some technology companies again in 2020. Because after the reshuffle period of 20 18 and 20 19, many "impurities" have been washed away, and some powerful enterprises have been precipitated.

12 17, Teruide announced that its subsidiary TELD intends to introduce strategic investors through capital increase and share expansion. The total amount of this capital increase does not exceed 65.438+0.35 billion yuan, and the capital increase price is planned to be 65.438+0.764 yuan per yuan of registered capital, and the post-investment valuation is about 7.8 billion yuan. Strategic investors such as CDH Investment and China State-owned Enterprise Structural Adjustment Fund Co., Ltd. will take shares in TELD.

In 20 19- 12 China automobile industry, this financing of TELD is undoubtedly the one with the largest investment and the strongest employer background. 165438+ 10, and the highest amount of financing was $400 million from Xpeng Motors.

TELD is a leading enterprise in the charging pile market, ranking first in market share and charging capacity. In the past two years, more than half of the players in this market have fallen, and most of the remaining players are in poor living conditions.

Similar to telecommunications, Xpeng Motors also belongs to the head enterprise in its industry. In 20 19, the cumulative sales of Xpeng cars ranked third among the new forces in automobile manufacturing. Except Xpeng Motors, there were only about 65,438+00 new car-making forces that got financing in 2065,438+09. At the same time, Zhi Dou, Du Yun, Yangtze River EV and other new tail-end car-making forces are in a state of substantial losses, and whether they can survive will mainly depend on whether there is new capital to "take over".

(Xpeng Motors/ billion euros. com)

In addition to the above two industries, there are still many areas in the automobile industry monopolized by head enterprises.

In the field of power batteries, the market positions of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and BYD are still unshakable. According to the data of China Energy Network, in 20 16 years, there were 2 17 power battery enterprises in China. By 20 19, the number had become 69. Some experts predict that by 2020, the number of power battery enterprises in China will be less than 30.

In addition, the technology travel market is still the only one in Didi; Among car e-commerce, there are only a handful of companies with a valuation of over 10 billion.

In the above-mentioned fields, the market will undoubtedly continue to concentrate on the head enterprises, and only a few backward enterprises with creative innovation ability will have the opportunity to gain the favor of capital.

Enterprises that rely on big trees still have opportunities.

Of course, in addition to market share, the advantages of the employer's background also allow some enterprises to show good market prospects. A strong or suitable employer will bring great support to the future development of the enterprise.

In the field of charging service, Lasar Technology is a company with a strong background. The sponsors of the company are State Grid Corporation, China Southern Power Grid Corporation, TELD Company and Star Charging Company. The number of charging piles owned by the above four enterprises reached 335,000, accounting for more than 70% of the country.

In addition, the reason why Baiteng can continue to attract investment is not only the internal factors such as technical strength and business model, but also the multiple rounds of financing participation of FAW Group, the eldest son of the Republic. In the eyes of some insiders, if Baiteng can't be self-financing in the end, the outcome is likely to be acquired by FAW.

Government relations are also crucial for the development of start-ups. The attraction of American Express, a new force working with Baiteng to build a car, mainly comes from excellent government relations rather than powerful employers. 20 18, 10 at the press conference in June, in addition to Ding Lei and other well-known executives and fantasy vision, there were many heads of prefecture-level cities present. In addition, an 8-kilometer-long "Lu Zhi" built in Yancheng was selected as one of the top ten test roads of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Although the name of the employer has not been announced, its high-quality resource background is enough to attract investors' attention.

(Chinese Express "Smart Road" test system/Chinese Express official)

The leading enterprises in the new energy vehicle market are not clear, but the big pattern of its upstream power battery market has been formed, and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is undoubtedly the absolute overlord of this market. The biggest helper of its status today is BMW. Because its products are favored by BMW, the cooperation has been sustained, which has laid a good reputation in the industry and finally quickly gained recognition and recognition from more car companies.

All in all, whether through capital or cooperation, those enterprises that have already bound strong partners will undoubtedly have an extra layer of protection for their development prospects. Not surprisingly, in 2020, enterprises with this advantage will be more easily favored by capital.

New blue ocean opportunities

As the above-mentioned markets enter the knockout stage, the halo effect of dominant enterprises has already appeared, and the main capital will undoubtedly move closer to star enterprises. However, while the overall automobile market in China is in a shrinking stage, some markets are still in the blue ocean market, and investment opportunities still exist.

Intelligent networking is one of the hottest topic markets in the automobile industry in recent years, and it is also one of the most favored markets by capital.

IT orange data shows that in the past two years, the investment and financing amount of the global autonomous driving industry has exceeded 40 billion yuan, ranking second in the automobile transportation industry. Although a large number of entrepreneurs have flooded into the market since 20 14, there has never been a truly commercialized high-grade autonomous driving project. Even the head players began to explore the road of the scene.

(Self-driving vehicle road test/billion euros. com)

In addition to autonomous driving, new opportunities have emerged in the Internet of Vehicles. At the 20 19 Shanghai Auto Show, Huawei participated in the exhibition for the first time, and announced that it would position itself as a Tier 1 smart car manufacturer with a target revenue of 50 billion US dollars. In addition to Huawei, many smaller technology companies are also eyeing this cake and have been recognized by the capital market. In 20 19, a number of enterprises, such as Shanghai Taibo, an internet of vehicles enterprise, Tiantong Weishi, an intelligent driving system supplier, and Mushroom Car Alliance, an internet of vehicles technology enterprise, all gained capital recognition.

20 18,18 At the end of February, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Action Plan for the Industrial Development of the Internet of Vehicles (Intelligent Networked Vehicles)", and it is planned to achieve a penetration rate of 30% in 2020. According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Public Security, the number of car reservations nationwide in 20 19 was 260 million.

This means that at least 70% of vehicles have the opportunity to connect to the Internet after loading, that is, 65.438+82 billion vehicles, even if users who need to upgrade the existing vehicle networking system are not included. These 65.438+0.82 billion vehicles, even if the average afterloading price of each vehicle is 65.438+0.000 yuan, can reach the market scale of trillions of dollars. In-vehicle infotainment system, streaming media central rearview mirror, HUD head-up display system, full LCD instrument, car networking module and other networked markets have not yet monopolized, and related enterprises also have certain investment opportunities.

In addition to the Internet of Vehicles, the car ownership of 260 million and the growing age of cars have enabled investors to see opportunities in the automotive aftermarket. According to the White Paper on the Post-20 19 Market published by Deloitte, the average age of cars owned in China has reached 4.9 years, compared with 3.3 years three years ago.

With the increase of vehicle age, although the auto parts market, which used to focus on collision parts and wearing parts, has entered the Red Sea, the blue ocean opportunity of medium and slow damaged parts is approaching quietly. In 20 19, at least 10 auto parts supply chain enterprises in China obtained financing, including not only established enterprises such as Xinkangzhong and Case, but also new players such as A, B, C and D, with three heads and six arms. Unlike the automobile aftermarket in the United States, which is divided by big players, there is still a chance for the automobile aftermarket in China.

In 2020, in the fields of automobile manufacturing and new energy, it is expected that the capital market will be closed and the main funds will continue to flow to the head enterprises. New opportunities mainly exist in autonomous driving, front-rear networking and enterprises that can reconstruct value based on relevant data. In addition, the field of auto parts is expected to become the most popular position in the automotive aftermarket.

Although there are still investment opportunities in the auto market, the overall imagination space is far less than that of the previous two years. It is predicted that in 2020, the capital market will be more pragmatic, and those projects with only good ideas and no strict commercial logic will probably be very sad.

Editor: zhangyan

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.