The development of express delivery is in full swing, and the plastic industry has benefited significantly.

In 20 18, the number of express parcels exceeded 50 billion, which was 50 times higher than that in 20 10. China Express has entered a new era of10 billion pieces a day, and the express packaging industry in China is facing great opportunities. Relevant data show that in 20 18, the national express delivery industry consumed more than 50 billion express waybills, about 5.3 billion woven bags, about 24.5 billion plastic bags, about 5.7 billion envelopes, about 143 billion packing boxes and about 43 billion meters of adhesive tape. The packaging belt used in China can circle the earth 1077 times a year. The prosperity of the express delivery industry in China has also greatly promoted the prosperity of the packaging industry.

Most of the materials used in express packaging are plastic products. The rapid development of the express delivery industry has brought new development opportunities to the plastic industry, and it will become an important place in the downstream demand field of plastic products in the future.

According to Zhuo Chuang's rough statistics, the packaging categories used in the express delivery process are shown in Table 1:

As can be seen from the statistics of table 1, except for carton packaging, which belongs to the agricultural field, all other packages are plastic products. This paper will focus on the impact of the rapid development of the express delivery industry on the plastic market, focusing on the tape and recycled plastic products commonly used in express delivery packaging.

(1) tape main roll

1. What is a tape master volume?

Master tape roll, also called semi-finished tape, is the semi-finished tape we usually see, and it has not been cut yet. There are many kinds of master tapes according to different substrates. The express packaging and adhesive tape used in our daily life are all BOPP-based products, and they are also the categories that Zhuochuang Information has been studying. The master reel we described in this paper is BOPP master reel.

The main roll of BOPP tape is made by coating a layer of butyl acrylate pressure-sensitive adhesive water on BOPP (a smooth film on the tape). After being cut by the cutting factory, it flows into the market and becomes the familiar sealing tape.

2. Supply and demand of master tapes in China.

The adhesive tape industry has developed for more than 30 years since it entered China in 65438 to 0983. At present, China's master tape coil industry is in a relatively mature stage of development, and its production capacity is increasing year by year. According to Zhuo Chuang's statistics, in 20 18, the production capacity of China master tape coil industry reached 3,224,600 tons, the output was1842,500 tons, and the apparent consumption was1354,900 tons.

From Figure 1, it can be seen intuitively that the supply of master tape coil market in China is in a situation of oversupply, and the market supply capacity is still in the stage of continuous expansion. According to Zhuo Chuang, in 20 19, the master tape coil industry in China will once again usher in a "production fever". 20 19,1-April, the industry added 9 production lines with a production capacity of nearly 45,000 tons; 20 19 in the next 8 months, only Zhuo Chuang confirmed that the estimated production capacity of 26 production lines will be increased to nearly130,000 tons.

At present, China's master tape coil industry is in the stage of oversupply, but the continuous production of production enterprises not only means the upgrading of the old production line in terms of capacity optimization, but also indicates that the future development prospects of the master tape coil market can be expected, such as the emergence of emerging demand areas, in which the demand for tape in the express delivery industry has been expanding in recent years.

According to Zhuo Chuang's statistics, China BOPP tape main roll production enterprises are mainly concentrated in East China, South China and North China, and the production capacity of 20 18 in the three regions accounts for 85%; In terms of provinces, it is concentrated in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong, Jiangsu, Fujian and Liaoning. In addition to Friendship and AUO Group, there are more than 80 manufacturers including Zhejiang Authoritative, Zhejiang Benduo, Shandong Meihua, Linyi Alishan, Yaliya, Zhongshan Yongda, Jiangsu Dick, Shunde Deyinbao, Foshan Yida, Changchun Wei Yong and Shenyang Tianyuan.

3. Analysis of the demand for master tapes by express delivery.

As can be seen from the data in the table, in the past decade, China's express delivery industry has developed in full swing. During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the number of express delivery items increased by 10 times. The 13th Five-Year Plan period is drawing to a close. In 2065, the number of express delivery items in China once again exceeded 50 billion, 438+08.

As for the contribution of express delivery to the tape reel industry, the proportion of downstream demand increased from 0.70% in 20 10 to 6.78% in 20 18, which is only the proportion of downstream demand, and the usage of tape increased from 0.58 million tons in 20 10 to125006. The rapid development of the express delivery industry has obviously contributed to the tape main roll industry.

(2) Recycled plastics

1. Material of outer packaging bag for express delivery-recycled polyethylene

Express packaging bag, bubble film, etc. It is made of recycled polyethylene. Recycled PE is a kind of recycled plastics, and its raw materials come from two kinds. One is the scrap or scrap produced by PE in the process of producing plastic products, accounting for less than10%; The other is that PE plastic products still have use value after the end of service life. This kind of waste plastic has a wide range of sources and accounts for a large proportion. After recovery, sorting, cleaning, crushing and re-granulation, PE is recovered.

2. Supply and demand of recycled polyethylene in China.

As a widely used recycled plastic, the output, import and demand of recycled PE have increased year by year in recent ten years. The apparent consumption of recycled PE in 20 13 years was 8,946,700 tons, nearly 2.5 times higher than that in 2006, with an average growth rate of 19.4%. In the later period, due to the tightening of import policy and domestic environmental protection inspection, domestic production, import and demand all decreased to some extent. By 20 18, the apparent consumption of recycled PE has dropped to 3,596,900 tons, and the average speed reduction of demand in recent six years has been-16.7%.

Returning to the suggested fast outer packaging bag, according to Zhuo Chuang's research, the common gray express bags are mainly produced by high-pressure high-quality particles of recycled PE, while the white express bags and bubble films are mostly produced by high-pressure white or white particles of recycled PE.

From the price point of view, we choose the raw material of gray express bag: recycled PE color high-quality particles to see the trend in these two years. Due to the existence of downstream rigid demand, recycled PE high-quality particles are shipped well and the trend is relatively mild. The overall selling price level rose on 20 17-20 19, which was 4,600 yuan/ton at the beginning of 20 17, and reached a high of 5,950 yuan/ton in mid-May, 2065,438, and is currently 2,065,438.

Due to the particularity of recycled plastics industry, it is difficult to count the proportion of high-quality particles of specific colors and white and white particles in the whole recycled PE, but as can be seen from the figure below, the usage of recycled PE by express bags is increasing year by year.

According to the figures disclosed by the State Post Bureau, in 20 16, the express delivery business volume reached 3 135 billion pieces, and the total use of plastic bags in the national express delivery industry was about 147 billion pieces, of which the direct use of plastic bags by express delivery was about 6.8 billion pieces; In 20 17, the national express delivery industry completed a total of 40.06 billion pieces, up 27.8% year-on-year, and the corresponding use of express packaging products was still huge, with 8 billion plastic express bags, and the use of express bags increased 17.6% year-on-year. According to the forecast, during the period of 20 16-2020, China's express delivery business volume is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 33.64%, reaching10 billion pieces by 2020. Judging from such a large number of express delivery increments, the number of express packaging bags will continue to increase, and the demand for recycling PE will continue to show an increasing trend.

(3) The future development of express delivery can be expected and will continue to promote the development of the plastic industry.

According to the statistics of the State Post Bureau, the development trend index of express delivery in 20 18 is 92.9, and it is preliminarily estimated that the volume of express delivery business will exceed 60 billion pieces in 20 19, with a year-on-year increase of 22%. It is estimated that in 20 19, the revenue of express delivery business will exceed 700 billion yuan, up by 18% year-on-year.

"20 17" Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Express Industry "proposes to form a service network covering the whole country and China Unicom International by 2020. It also puts forward development opportunities and directions such as supply-side structural reform, "internet plus" action plan, open economic system, and reform of "simplifying administration and decentralizing power, strengthening supervision and improving service" to provide new kinetic energy and development assistance for the development of express delivery industry in China. In the future, China's express delivery industry will develop more stably and rapidly, and the application of 5G will also promote the development model of "Internet manufacturing+express delivery" to be more perfect. In addition, the resource and environmental constraints in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" put forward new requirements for the green development of the express delivery industry. In the future, the development of China's express delivery industry will develop in the direction of high efficiency, speed, green and full coverage.

The sustainable development of express delivery industry has obvious promotion effect on plastic packaging industry. Whether it is the contribution to the adhesive tape or the demand for packaging bags, woven bags and bubble films, it will be a sustainable situation, and nothing else can replace it. At present, the rapid development of China's express delivery industry is a promotion for the plastic industry. (Zhuo Chuang Information Analyst, Zhai)