The internet giant ushered in a dark moment.

After two and a half years, Tencent once again returned to the bottom area of the historical valuation quantile in the last decade.

The return of valuation is mainly due to a wave of stock price decline close to 30% this year. However, if we compare the stock price adjustment of Internet giants horizontally, we will find that this wave of adjustment of Tencent is only a gentle knife.

Has the internet leader fallen out of the first place at present?

This requires us to make a resumption of this round of decline:

Judging from the initial decline, the country's strong anti-monopoly supervision in the Internet field is definitely one of the main fuses. Then the question is coming. What is the background of this round of strong supervision? Is this a short-term negative factor, or will it completely change the future growth potential of Internet leaders?

In addition, since most Internet leaders are listed in US stocks and Hong Kong stocks, they are also very sensitive to fluctuations in the US market. A wave of rising US bond yields at the beginning of the year also put great pressure on valuation. Looking forward to the second half of the year, will there be any new changes in the attitude of the Fed?

Therefore, whether the internet giants have ushered in a dark moment requires us to think from the above two aspects.

1 Moon and sixpence

When it comes to the background and reasons of Internet antitrust, a commentary in People's Daily during the "community group buying" war last year made it very clear:

"In today's era and the longer-term future, the ability of scientific and technological innovation and the ability to master core technologies in key areas have become the key elements of national competition and long-term development.

If we only look down at sixpence instead of looking up at the moon and start scientific and technological innovation to win the long-term future, then no amount of traffic and data can be transformed into hard-core scientific and technological achievements, and it is difficult to change the passive situation that we are subject to people in core technologies. Internet giants with massive data and advanced algorithms should have more responsibility, more pursuit and more achievements in scientific and technological innovation.

Don't just think about a few bundles of cabbage, the flow of a few pounds of fruit, the sea of stars in scientific and technological innovation, and the infinite possibilities in the future. In fact, it is more exciting. "

This passage is informative and has several meanings:

1 From the national level, what do you value most? That must be the core technology. What are the characteristics of the core technology? First, it can represent the country's core competitiveness and help the country overtake in corners, such as new energy technologies; Second, those technologies that are currently stuck in key areas should continue to invest resources to make breakthroughs, such as chips.

Is the Internet the core technology? It can be seen that Internet giants have the advantages of large traffic, big data and advanced algorithms. If used well, it can be transformed into core technology. If you don't make good use of it, you will compete with the people for profit.

Then why don't internet giants invest resources in core technologies? It is nothing more than considering the cost and return of investment: it is difficult to see the results of investing in core technologies in the short term, but competing for stock cakes is basically equivalent to path replication. Whatever the outcome, at least the capital market pays for this story.

Is there a problem with robbing stock cakes? Is it shameful to come out to make money? From the national point of view, you can make money, you don't have to engage in core technology, but the bottom line is that you can't engage in things and you can't destroy the good environment of social fairness and stability. Capital cannot be exalted for its own benefit, which damages the basic rights of most people, especially people's livelihood, medical care, education, and food, clothing, housing and transportation. This is the unshakable bottom line.

The essential attribute of capital is profit-seeking, which is to continuously expand production efficiency and earn every penny on the margin. However, the state demands fairness, at least for most people, which is in conflict with each other. If there is no restriction and management of capital, it will lead to the so-called "disorderly expansion."

From the national point of view, it is definitely hoped that enterprises can do a good job of self-discipline, but not all enterprises have enough consciousness and political acumen. It's like giving a piece of candy to a 3-year-old child for safekeeping. It's too difficult to avoid being eaten.

Taking this anti-monopoly supervision as an example, Ali was the first to be fined 654.38+082 billion yuan, three times the largest fine in the history of domestic anti-monopoly. Ant financial service has become "the horse has already served", and no one expected the price of Ma Yun's speech to be so high.

However, a mountain is higher than a mountain. On July 16, the National Network Information Office joined forces with the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of National Security, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Transport, the State Administration of Taxation and the General Administration of Market Supervision to enter Didi. This can't find anything, so no one really believes it. I think, if the country can finally give Didi a big ticket of 65.438+0.82 billion, can Didi wake up from her dream?

A good job needs peers to set it off. Under the same strict anti-monopoly supervision environment, we can see that the state has normally approved Tencent to acquire the equity of sogou, and several chip R&D positions have appeared in official website recently recruited by Tencent.

Don't talk about the future business development potential of each company, just compare the boss's consciousness, I can only sigh:

The injustice of the world.

In fact, judging from the history of antitrust in the United States, whether it is aimed at Microsoft, FACEBOOK or Google, strong supervision has not changed the long-term upward trend of their share prices.

From a domestic perspective, when you think that e-commerce has formed a duopoly pattern of Ali and JD.COM, there is a strong rise of Pinduoduo; In addition to Tencent, there are also Tik Tok, Easy Car and Beep Beep Beep. There is no shortage of new opportunities in the market. What is lacking is always the excavation of opportunities. At the same time, when new variables appear in the economy, new demands will also arise. We should look at the world from a developmental perspective.

Therefore, although it is generally said in the industry that the traffic growth is exhausted and the stock market is greater than the incremental market, I don't think it is easy to draw the conclusion that Internet companies have lost growth.

However, internal differentiation is inevitable.

For example, the performance of companies in this anti-monopoly inspection and the leadership style, political sense and management level of the commanders behind it can explain the problem very well.

Who is the golden pit and who is the cesspit? The answer is already obvious.

2 Standing in front of the watershed of Sino-US policy

At present, the main contradiction of American economy is concentrated between high inflation and low employment rate.

Judging from the goals of the Fed, economy and employment are definitely the first goals of policy stimulus. Judging from the latest unemployment rate data in the United States and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week, the goal of employment in the United States has not yet been achieved, so Powell must express a relaxed attitude to strengthen market confidence.

On the other hand, the CPI and PPI data of the United States in June greatly exceeded market expectations, which also made the market expect to tighten liquidity and constantly compete with the Federal Reserve.

From the second half of the year, under the huge liquidity, prices are prone to ups and downs, and the variation of epidemic situation is also an uncertain factor, so the yield of US bonds will fluctuate in stages under the game.

Under this fluctuation, the valuation of these leading Internet companies will also be under pressure in stages.

At present, the state has issued various policies to encourage Internet companies to list in China, taking into account the constraints and restrictions of foreign capital markets.

Just like this year's central bank policy, we should take a "I-oriented" road in the future. Although Xiu Yuan has a long way to go, change has quietly begun.

Finally, to sum up:

1 Anti-monopoly will be the main theme for some time to come. In the context of the country's pursuit of fairness, the performance of Internet companies will not be too bright this year. Coupled with the killer of the United States to tighten liquidity, the share prices of Internet companies will still be under tremendous pressure in the second half of the year.

There will be differentiation within leading enterprises, so it is not recommended to buy a basket of Internet companies such as China Internet Index.

Three people are optimistic about Tencent and Xiaomi. Judging from various performances in the past, leaders with good pattern, stressing politics, keeping a low profile and doing things with high profile are all top entrepreneurs in China. Even if the company's share price fluctuates in the short term, it is always on the right path in the long run, and adjustment is a golden pit.

At present, even for those companies with a long-term upward trend, it is not advisable to shuttle, but they can start to vote. But don't be on the wrong side, or there will be a new version of Horse in Service in three years.

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