Recruit in Avalon

In overseas markets, strategy games are the second largest category after puzzle games. The huge market size has attracted a large wave of manufacturers to compete.

China's game makers are undoubtedly the number one players in the strategic category, while Starlight Glimmer, an enterprise born in the track. Well-known brands such as Zhixingtong, Qujia and Lilith.

Players may be familiar with their own products, such as COK, Firearms Age and National Awakening.

These products are well-known overseas, which makes China manufacturers famous and earn a lot of extra money. The Game Industry Report of China in 2020 pointed out that the scale of "going out to sea with games" in China was further expanded, and the overseas market revenue exceeded 1000 billion RMB for the first time. Specific to the breakdown of game categories, the revenue of strategy games accounts for nearly 40%.

Which company is the king of overseas market strategy games? Do China manufacturers have a chance to catch up or even catch up?

The following is the second article of "The Deconstructor of Interest". This paper introduces in detail the strength comparison between Chinese and American "4X" game manufacturers and their future development trends. Please enjoy.

Like Supercell, the fist mobile game market failed to meet expectations.

In 2020, Fist launched three mobile games based on League of Legends IP, including Legend of Rune Land, Genting Game Mobile Games and League of Legends Mobile Games.

By the end of 2020, the cumulative revenue of fist on the mobile terminal is about 50 million US dollars, and the download volume is only slightly higher than 40 million. This result is obviously far from what the fist expected.

Two of the three games are cross-platform games. Due to the unsatisfactory performance of the mobile terminal, most of the revenue of the game still comes from the PC terminal.

The card game developed by fist is an excellent cross-platform game. However, it is difficult to show advantages on the mobile side due to the over-cautious liquidation mode and insufficient innovation, coupled with insufficient downloads.

Compared with other card games, the biggest difference of this game lies in the way players hold cards-or the cash mode in the game.

There is no card opening mechanism in the legend of Rune Land. Players can get random cards through free experience upgrades and daily and weekly rewards, or they can get specific cards directly through recharge or gold coins. Using this mode to get cards will limit the speed at which players can get cards.

In other words, fist hopes to increase the playability and balance of the legend of rune land by restricting the purchase of cards, so as to retain more players. At the same time, the routine of selling skin is similar to the traditional means of collecting money in League of Legends.

The "Legend of Rune Land" mobile game has been online for nearly a year. It is not difficult to see from the above figure that the revenue of Rune Land approached Hearthstone for a certain period of time, but then it began to show a downward trend. This shows that the realization mode needs to be optimized.

The second-hand tour of fist is TFT (Genting Game). 20 19, fists quickly respond to the category of self-propelled chess, but unfortunately no self-propelled chess can make money from players.

Genting's game

Fist showed us a high degree of sensitivity to the market, and launched a cross-platform TFT in a few months, and stood on its own feet. However, the trend of self-moving chess did not last. After all, it is difficult for self-moving chess to have a mature liquidation mechanism.

As a typical self-propelled board game, TFT is a bit like the combination of playing cards and chess, and the change lies in the role of chess pieces.

After in-depth study, you will find that the game is infinitely complicated, and the only things players can buy are chessboard skins and little heroes.

At the beginning of the new season, the version change will bring a wave of users, but the fist seems to have no intention of making great efforts. This makes the game always lack a real progress.

More deadly, TFT mobile games are inconvenient to operate, and it is difficult for players to communicate with each other, resulting in low social attributes of TFT. As long as these two factors persist, the realization of TFT will face challenges.

How long will MOBA be monopolized by western players?

The development, operation and realization of MOBA games have always been extremely difficult.

But the glory of the king made billions, making developers take it for granted that it is not difficult to recreate the king.

The glory of the king International Legends Against Legends is not successful in the western market, even though it takes the most representative figures in the west as heroes, such as Batman and Superman.

Defining the audience of the game is the key. Suppose you need to make a game, and the characters in the game are familiar to the players. Then, the research team will verify it through various means, such as whether to choose to play MOBA games, whether it is a novice or an veteran.

Interestingly, players like to choose Hulk or Iron Man to fight with them.

The cost of purchasing the above IP will undoubtedly be quite high. This business model can be supported because Marvel Comics IP can guide the download of games and provide lower customer acquisition costs.

Although the number of downloads is decreasing, the revenue contributed by each download (RPI) will gradually increase with time. Outside of China, the rpi of Legendary Fight is quite low, and the rpi of Marvel comic Super Wars is even lower. So far, the download volume of the latter is only 6.5438+0.5 million. MOBA, a marvel comic developed by Kabam Game Company, is still in the soft start stage. Considering the above situation, it is difficult for us to see that the game meets people's expectations.

In the market, two MOBA games entered the market in the same year. One is "Marvel Comics: Super War" developed by Netease; The second is the 3V3 fighting game "Marvel Comics Champion Field".

Netease's "Marvel Comics: Super Wars" claims that the annual download volume reaches150,000. Unfortunately, for a game that charges a high license fee, this number is disastrous.

More importantly, the production cost of high-quality MOBA mobile games is about 20 million yuan. To be honest, it is difficult to be optimistic about the above MOBA mobile games.

Why can't MOBA mobile games catch fire in western markets even with big IP blessing? League of Legends Mobile Games has its own Buff, and its game fluency is impeccable, but its revenue is very weak.

This only shows that western players just don't want to play MOBA games on their mobile phones.

League of Legends: The Wild Rift Valley

League of Legends is the most influential MOBA game, and people naturally have high expectations for the League of Legends mobile game.

This is completely understandable. After all, Tencent's the glory of the king can be said to be the most successful MOBA mobile game. It is speculated that in a year or so, the accumulated revenue of the glory of the king may exceed 654.38+00 billion.

Reality is cruel, especially in the game world. So far, the western world has not achieved any success in the traditional MOBA field, nor can it find any sustainable profit model.

We can't criticize the developers for not working hard, because the income of King International Edition in the United States is less than $20 million.

Judging from RPI (revenue per istall), the number of League of Legends mobile games is similar to that of legends. In view of the failed promotion experience of League of Legends, League of Legends mobile games are likely to follow suit.

In terms of acquiring users, fist has done its best, such as placing advertisements in mainstream channels and inviting anchors. Unfortunately, the download volume of fist MOBA mobile game in the first month was only150,000. For the IP of global1-1.200 million players, this achievement is obviously unsatisfactory.

There is a saying that the popularity of League of Legends mobile games in China should not be underestimated. I still remember the scene when the foreign service was just launched, and the domestic number one was hard to find.

Perhaps in the China market, League of Legends mobile games can turn the tide. Limited by the version number, it still competes with the king in China market, and the prospect is hard to estimate.

Forecast the prospect of fist mobile games in 20021year.

Its three mobile games will maintain the niche game positioning, and the annual combined income is far below 50 million US dollars.

Fist will support these games through continuous updates. Because two games are cross-platform, and platforms outside the mobile side account for a large part of revenue. In the China market, League of Legends mobile games are expected to make a big difference one day.

Fist will not launch other mobile games on 202 1.

What can a fist do?

Adopt a feasible monetization model instead of trying to develop games with inappropriate monetization system. Although players are used to the traditional free mode of fist game.

Launched the mobile game version of Valorant, which may be a shooting mobile game that detonated the market.

TFT, the legend of rune land and the great rift valley have been polished for a long time. Unfortunately, they can't make players feel fresh in any form or form, which is more like a combination of "game" x "League of Legends" characters. If you expect more innovation in the fist game, you are gambling.

"4X" exploration, expansion, development and conquest

As a 4X game, Machine Zone's Thunder World proves that most 4X games are characterized by high ARPPU (average income per paying user) and relatively low DAU (daily active users).

As the largest sub-category of nuclear games, "4X" earned $3.3 billion in 2020, up 365,438+0% year-on-year. It accounts for one-third of the nuclear game market, and it is worth mentioning that the revenue of "4X" exceeds the total revenue of other strategic games.

Four times as many games and developers in 2020.

FunPlus's Living State is the most popular game in 2020. In addition, IGG's "Kingdom Times" and Scopely's "Star Trek" have also seen good growth in revenue.

At present, Lilith's The Awakening of the Nation has reached its peak in the western market, but it has failed to show its global appeal. It is reported that this game has made a net profit of $300 million in major Asian markets, and it is by far the largest "4X" game in the world.

Another notable feature of the "4X" game is the uneven distribution of game income, rather than the winner of the head game.

According to the data, China manufacturers will continue to dominate the "4X" game. Last year, four domestic games successfully broke into the top 20. They come from FunPlus, Top games, dragon technology and Le Yi network.

Why do China manufacturers perform better in the "4X" market, while western manufacturers are trying to enter the "4X" market?

"4X" games require a high level of technical experience.

Asian manufacturers are stronger in meta-game design, which is very important in "4X" games.

"4X" game has a low level of innovation and is suitable for developers who are good at reverse engineering. On the other hand, western developers have always been less interested in reverse engineering games and always want to create more innovative games.

The research and development of "4X" games requires a huge team size, which is in sharp contrast with the development style of most western mobile game developers-but this situation is changing with the maturity of the market.

Lilith harvests key markets.

As we predicted last year, Lilith's National Awakening became the revenue champion this year with a net income of $400 million and a year-on-year increase of 565,438+0%. The game was launched at the end of 20 18. The theme of the game was deeply influenced by civilization and was very attractive among players at that time.

It is reported that the annual income of National Awakening far exceeds $654.38+0 billion. Incredibly, this game is very attractive all over the world, and its income comes from various key markets around the world.

Lilith keeps the old players fresh by constantly adding unique events, new functions and other new ways of playing.

In addition, Lilith adopted a similar strategy and launched a new "4X" game called "Road to War". The work does not quote the historical background of Awakening of All Families, but uses a completely different background of World War II to expand the player base and attract new users.

Warpath has been released in Google Store and is expected to be released on iOS devices in March 20021year. According to the previous performance, it is a relatively potential game, and H2 is likely to be in the top 202 1 entry 10.

Lilith's latest strategy game has been released in Google Store and is expected to be released on iOS devices in March 20021year.

Fun plus-the biggest winner in 2020

At the beginning of 2020, Lilith topped the income list with Awakening of All Nations, but was banned by FunPlus in the second half of the year. In the second half of last year, FunPlus launched a new doomsday survival game "Survival State", which accurately grasped the zombie theme that western players liked and won the championship in one fell swoop.

In the first 12 months, Living State performed outstandingly, surpassing its predecessors The King of Avalon and The Age of Firearms, and its monthly income exceeded 40 million dollars, setting a record high.

Thanks to the revenue growth of Living State and King of Avalon, FunPlus's revenue increased from 540 million US dollars to 850 million US dollars in 2020, and won the title of the first developer with 22% market share (18% 20 19). At the same time, the revenue of Living State will increase by 9 times in 2020, making it the largest "4X" game in the western market.

For the "4X" industry, the biggest news in 2020 is AppLovin's acquisition of Machine Zone.

AppLovin, a mobile game company, acquired Machine Zone in May 2020, with a valuation of $500 million. As a famous mobile game developer, Machine Zone's best-selling games include War Games: Firepower Age, Thunder World and Final Fantasy 15: New Empire.

At the same time, Machine Zone is also a leader in the field of "4X" game operation, and is one of the first companies to really operate F2P games as a service. In 2012/2016, we also established a huge purchasing team and invested a lot of tools and technical solutions to improve large-scale effect marketing. At the peak of 20 16, the market value is estimated to reach $5 billion.

This acquisition means that AppLovin has taken an important step forward. Previously, AppLovin's investment mainly focused on super casual games. After the acquisition, AppLovin continued to fulfill the mission of the head mobile game company, and entered the "4X" market through Machine Zone to fill the shortcomings in the development of nuclear games, thus perfecting the last link of the game ecology.

With the acquisition of mobile game users relying more and more on refined marketing activities, Machine Zone has lost its competitive advantage, which will lead to market share flowing to more innovative game companies such as FunPlus and IGG.

Although the new game of Machine Zone failed to achieve scale expansion, its conservative investment strategy continues to support a strong long tail effect. In the past three years, with almost no marketing support, War Games: Firepower Age and Thunder World have both achieved a stable monthly income of about 5 million US dollars.

War Game: Firepower Age and Thunder World were launched on 20 12 and 20 15 respectively, which were very innovative in the mobile field at that time, and realized the functions of global service, built-in language translator and real-time strategy. It can be said that the standard of strategic mobile games has been formulated, and Thunder World has also been marketed with the brand of "Wilderness" and has been selected. At the same time, advertisements are overwhelming.

However, in 20 18 and 20 19, two games, The Game of War and The Birth of Crystal (a mix of RPG and 4X), were released by Machine Zone, which failed to meet MZ's satisfactory expectations.

Therefore, Machine Zone was labeled as a "failed publisher" in the past two years, but in fact, it added 2 million downloads in 2020, creating a net income of $65.438+$38 billion. Every month after the acquisition, Machine Zone accounts for a considerable proportion of AppLovin's IAP revenue.

20 18-2020 revenue of three games owned by Machine Zone

AppLovin was founded on 20 12, and acquired and established 12 studio in recent two years. Machine Zone is their biggest acquisition so far, and this acquisition is regarded as a strong alliance by the outside world.

First of all, AppLovin can take advantage of Machine Zone's experience in running live games and its advantages in operation and game services. AppLovin's other studios and existing games can benefit from Machine Zone's expertise in game services.

And it can provide additional resources and support for the next generation strategy game in the sub-zone. As a member of AppLovin family, Machine Zone can now seek additional resources and financial support from AppLovin to build a modern "4X" game, which is the most advanced and excellent of its kind.

"Combining our professional knowledge and successful experience in CNNC games with AppLovin's casual game product portfolio and leading mobile marketing platform is a win-win situation for our two companies and will create an unparalleled experience for players around the world." Kristen Dumont, CEO of Machine Zone, said.

Scopely became the largest 4X developer in the West.

Scopely's market performance is good this year, and its Star Trek: Fleet Commander increased by 665,438+0% year-on-year. It consolidated the position of 10 in the top ranking of Scopely and became the best western developer in the "4X" ranking.

The scale of Star Trek: Fleet Commander is impressive. With the launch of the new "4X" game, we expect Scopely to have the opportunity to grow into a strategic game empire in a few years.

Scopely's FoxNext's second "4X" game Avatar: The Rise of Pandora is still on sale. The game was originally planned to be released globally in 2020, but the release date was postponed for some reason. The developer made eight major updates in the past 15 months, and expanded to the European primary market in August 2020.

At the same time, Scopely is still sparing no effort to find the next big hit. It is reported that when creating Avatar, they hired an executive producer from Warner Bros.' Game of Thrones, which shows that they have spent a lot of thoughts on improving the production level of "4X" games.

Warner Bros.' s main business declined and turned to licensing.

Warner Bros.' s revenue and downloads dropped significantly (16% and 64% respectively), but due to the powerful long tail effect of Game of Thrones: Conquest, Warner Bros. still succeeded in generating1900,000 dollars in revenue. The company announced that it will cooperate with Netease to develop a new strategy game based on The Lord of the Rings IP.

Based on their cooperation with Kabam, a western head developer, to create the mobile game The Hobbit, Warner seems to have returned to a retrogressive stage.

After the success of the "4X" game of Kabam's The Hobbit, Warner decided to make a 4X game (Game of Thrones) internally. But now it seems that they have returned to the mode of authorizing not to participate in production.

It's puzzling that since Warner learned how to cooperate with Kambam to make "4X" games, they didn't choose to make "4X" games themselves.

Two works in the top 20 of this year's sales list caught our attention. The first game is Top War, which contains all the elements of a typical "4X" game, such as base construction, PvP, alliance system, and some extended gameplay, but this is contrary to simplifying the operation and creating a more easy-to-use core gameplay.

However, considering that Top War is the most downloaded "4X" game since 2020 165438+ 10, the performance of this strategy seems to be good.

The above is the performance of market clicks in the chart.

Another game is Empire of Civilization, which was released on 20 16. Top Games, its developer, has repeatedly tried to expand the scale of the game in the past four years (including 20 17 advertising in the Super Bowl), but it has never been able to gain a stable position in the top 20.

So in March 2020, Empire of Civilization imitated Playrix's marketing strategy and built a puzzle game around "solving puzzles and saving heroes".

The monthly download volume of "Civilization Empire" is stable at around 4 million. In the fifth year, the game broke through the milestone of monthly income of 6.5438+million dollars for the first time. With this achievement, TopGames has become the only western developer that successfully ranks among the top 20 in revenue.

Prediction of "4X" subtype in 202 1

FunPlus will stay ahead, and Lilith is struggling to catch up.

There is no doubt that this will be a fierce tug of war. According to the forecast, FunPlus will continue to rely on its "4X" dominant position to expand the market, and Lilith will expand the scale of Warpath in the first quarter. Without the IDFA New Deal, we can see that Lilith topped the list at the end of 20021.

The new policy of IDFA will greatly slow down the expansion of "4X" games, and at the same time, the situation of UA (user acquisition) in "4X" market has changed because of the change of IDFA, making UA more difficult.

Generally, "4X" games rely on obtaining high-value users from a large number of targets, and continue to operate in a mode of low DAU (daily active users) and high LTV (life cycle value).

In 20021this year, we also predicted that developers would innovate new ways to attract new users and improve the retention rate of old users.

"4X" game will be distributed across platforms.

Very similar to the means of mobile RPG against IDFA's New Deal, we will see that the "4X" type head game will provide players with downloadable PC clients.

IP: the killer weapon of western developers

Western developers have made it clear that the way to compete with China developers is to maximize the advantages of intellectual property rights. It is predicted that at least in 2022, Avatar will enter the top 20. We also noticed that EA is making a Star Wars mobile game (job advertisement based on EA).

An intellectual property war is imminent, and we will wait and see how China developers can solve the problem of intellectual property shortage.