Obviously, no one is growing rapidly in the number of jobs. How does society work at present?

In the spring of 2022,10.76 million graduates created the largest employment supply in history.

In the first quarter of this year, the demand for fresh graduates in the whole industry decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, which is the most bleak spring trick in recent years. It coincides with the optimization ratio of 15%-30% in the first quarter, which is even worse.

2022 may be the most difficult year for fresh graduates to find jobs.

A drizzling spring rain, another school recruit attended by Yang Li ended, but he returned empty-handed. "985 University, computer major, rich practical experience", in previous years, any one was enough to pry open the door of high salary of large factories. But not this year. "Enterprises are shrinking and salaries are decreasing. Let's watch while walking. " A sense of disappointment spread in Yang Li's heart. There are people who are disappointed, and there are people who are desperate. Wu Mei, a master of Chinese, has gone through more than 20 school admissions and submitted more than 100 resumes. However, there was no reply. They intended to increase their competitiveness with diplomas, but they caught up with the unprecedented graduation season and layoffs. Behind this is the employment tide of10.76 million fresh graduates triggered by 20 years of enrollment expansion.

20 12 April, the Ministry of Education clearly stipulated that "the enrollment scale of public universities will remain relatively stable in the future". A cry, but can't stop running. In the following years, the scale of college students expanded rapidly.

From 2000 to 2022, from 950,000 to 654.38+007,600, the number of college graduates in China has reached a record high every year, with a total of about 65.438+25 billion college graduates, close to the total population of Japan. Among them are sons who are rooted in the local area and talents who have returned from studying abroad. According to the forecast of Big Data Development Department of National Information Center, the number of returned overseas students in 2002 1 year exceeded110,000 for the first time. Considering the barrier of the epidemic, this number will increase with great probability in the future. With the sharp increase in supply and the severe employment situation, many graduates can't help but follow suit-continue their studies. In 2022, there were 4.57 million applicants for the national postgraduate entrance examination, a net increase of 800,000 compared with 20021,and the year-on-year growth rate exceeded 2 1%.

The expansion of postgraduate enrollment is equivalent to creating a buffer period of more than two years for the labor force. But two years later, graduate students have to face the society again, and they can't escape the sweeping tide of employment.

However, the hot labor supply was awakened by a plate of cold water on the demand side. This is mainly due to the shrinking of several key industries.

First and foremost, real estate has entered the era of "black iron".

Real estate is highly interrelated, and there are a lot of people who follow behind every real estate. As soon as the faucet went out, buildings, decoration and building materials, including home appliances, also dimmed. Evergrande alone brought down more than 30 listed companies, and Nantong Sanjian, which was built for it, was even more direct.

However, in some fourth-and fifth-tier cities where industry and commerce are underdeveloped and rely entirely on real estate to maintain their finances, civil servants have been unable to pay wages ... The education and training industry has continued to clear out, and the number of jobs accommodated has plummeted. According to the statistics of BOSS direct employment, in the spring of 2022, the job scale of the whole education and training industry shrank by more than 30%. "The company is going out of business, who else can you recruit?" A practitioner complained.

The Internet giant, which has always been strong, is exhausted.

The BOSS Direct Employment Research Institute's "Observation on the Employment Market Trend in Spring 2022" shows that since the peak season of spring recruitment, the recruitment scale of the Internet industry has increased by 13% year-on-year, the lowest point since 20 19 years.

Looking at the first quarter, the number of jobs provided by the Internet for fresh graduates decreased 1.78% year-on-year. The recruitment of fresh graduates in the whole industry decreased by 4.5% year-on-year. Tens of millions of fresh graduates are facing the dilemma of shrinking recruitment. But in fact, it could be worse. According to incomplete statistics, Xiaomi has recruited 65,438+10,000 jobs, 6,000+jobs in ByteDance, 8,000+jobs in Tencent, 65,438+10,000 jobs in Meituan and 20,000 jobs in JD.COM this year ... But this only describes the nominal demand of enterprises and cannot reflect the real demand changes of enterprises.

According to the official WeChat statistics of the Reporting Center of the Central Network Information Office, from July 20265438 to mid-March 2022, the total number of employees recruited by Tencent, Alibaba, ByteDance, Meituan, Pinduoduo, Aauto, Baidu, JD.COM, Netease, Weibo, Mi Le, Ant Group and other 12 enterprises was 295,900. However, if the total number of people leaving the company is deducted from 2 1.68 million, the net employment of 12 Internet companies is only 796.5438+0.08 million.

School recruitment will not last forever, and freshmen will not always have a "green channel". Experienced unemployed people will eventually compete with thousands of fresh graduates on the same stage, thus completely rolling up the job market. Layoff is a helpless move, and big manufacturers also have their own difficulties.

From the high point of China Golden Dragon Index (HXC) on February 6th, 20021,the average decline of 280 Chinese stocks was over 60%, and that of 66 Chinese stocks was over 90%. The culprit is the American Foreign Corporate Responsibility Act.

At the same time, domestic antitrust is also reshaping the industry. Market supervision at home and abroad leads to market turmoil, and enterprises are bound to experience severe pains and even panic. I believe that Ali, Didi and Meituan are deeply touched. On February 2 1 day, a message "Tencent has been hammered again, and it is a heavy hammer" spread like wildfire. In the end, no one waited for the real hammer, but the news itself became the biggest hammer on the market. On that day, Tencent's share price fell 5.23% in panic. The public relations department of Tencent Group has no choice but to accuse: "The penetrating power of rumors is often unimaginable." Under the cloak of the stock market, the "lizi" of big factories is becoming thinner and thinner. In Datou Factory, Ali's net profit was halved, and JD.COM and Meituan also became losses. ...

Employment is related to overall stability. In order to protect employment and people's livelihood, the policy level moves quickly. In the government work reports of the two sessions, stabilizing market players has become an important measure to ensure employment. For small and medium-sized micro-market entities, a series of targeted measures, such as tax relief, financing support and premium relief, have been really applied in enterprises.

It is estimated that the annual tax rebate will be 2.5 trillion yuan, and the unemployment insurance fund will be 654.38+000 billion yuan to support employment stability and training ... "Vivid figures make the market more emboldened to create employment opportunities, and the country has come forward. In March, 2020, the General Office of the State Council issued a document demanding that "state-owned enterprises expand the recruitment scale of college graduates for two consecutive years", and state-owned enterprises played the role of protectors.

In 2022, the number of applicants for the national examination exceeded 30,000 (3 1.200), a year-on-year increase of 2 1%. The proportion of school recruitment has also increased from 42.02% in 20 19 to 67.3% in 2022.

In an emergency, use extreme means.

On March 25th, the Ministry of Education issued the "Notice on Launching the Special Action of National College Secretaries and Presidents Visiting Enterprises to Promote Employment", requiring newly-built ordinary undergraduate colleges and higher vocational colleges secretaries (presidents and deans) to visit no less than 100 enterprises every year.

This is the first time in history. The principal's direct purpose in entering the enterprise is to introduce talents and find out the recruitment needs of the enterprise, which is a good choice in the long run.

But in the short term, the headmaster's face brushing effect is limited. The headmaster of a higher vocational college gave feedback, "I went to several enterprises, and the leaders of the enterprises were very polite and enthusiastic, but they really didn't have a job."

Even entrepreneurship was mentioned again. The Policy Announcement on College Students' Self-employment, issued by the Center for Student Service and Quality Development of the Ministry of Education, comprehensively guides college graduates to start their own businesses and obtain employment from tax incentives, secured loans and financial support. In Hangzhou, Tianjin and other places, a series of more detailed entrepreneurial support policies have also surfaced.

After all kinds of ups and downs in recruitment, graduates have become sober: the recruitment quota of state-owned enterprises cannot exist forever; The expansion of civil servants, but the enrollment ratio is higher; The internet is changing birds, but it won't give a green light; The current success rate of environmental protection entrepreneurship will not be too high. ...

There are indeed structural employment opportunities in society, but they are only reserved for a small number of people who are prepared, including graduates.

Demand is cold, but supply is at a new high. In 2022, the number of new urban laborers in China who need employment will reach160,000. Most workers are facing enormous employment pressure.

The imbalance between supply and demand is the appearance, and the mismatch between labor quality and industrial development is the root of the problem.

Many HR feedback a common phenomenon: many graduates can't find jobs, but many enterprises can't recruit people. Among 202 1 fresh graduates, humanities and social sciences accounted for 5 1.5%, higher than science and engineering. In reality, science and engineering students tend to do this regardless of 5G, AI, metacosmic technology or traditional manufacturing.

Of course, this is not only a question of matching disciplines, but also the disadvantages of the education system. Many graduates have majors but don't: those who study Chinese can't write well, those who study accounting can't read statements, and those who study economics can't even analyze supply and demand. The unreasonable salary structure aggravates this mismatch. A few days ago, China Youth Daily formed 5244 valid questionnaires for 679 college students. The survey shows that the most promising industries at present are Internet IT, entertainment and education in turn. Zhaopin Recruitment "20021Investigation Report on College Students' Employability" also shows that IT/ Internet is the most anticipated, followed by real estate/construction, entertainment media and finance.

But in reality, the biggest demand is manufacturing.

According to the data of Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, in the third quarter of 2002 100, 58 jobs in China100 were related to manufacturing. By 2025, the talent gap in the top ten key areas of domestic manufacturing will reach 30 million, with a gap rate as high as 48%.

An electrical spare parts owner in Shunde, Guangdong Province has been busy recruiting people. "Last year, 50 people left, but this year, only 20 people were recruited, and no one came for a salary increase of 10%. Everyone doesn't like to go into the factory and go to take delivery. " There is a reason why manufacturing is unattractive.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 20021year, in 18 industry categories, the top three annual average wages of employees in non-private units were "information technology service industry (177544 yuan)" and "scientific research and technical service industry (13985/kloc).

Low salary makes the traditional manufacturing industry lose its market appeal, and also causes the shortage of people in the industry.

Breaking these mismatches will not happen overnight. Embracing this wave of digital industry reform is the real opportunity for job seekers.

"Great Opportunities" for High-end Manufacturing Industry

According to the latest employment market trend observation released by BOSS Direct Employment Research Institute, in the spring of 2022, the demand for employment in high-end manufacturing industries such as new energy, aerospace, integrated circuits, medical devices, biopharmaceuticals and industrial automation surged, with a year-on-year increase of over 40%.

According to the recruitment salary report of China enterprises in the first quarter released by Zhaopin, among 48 industries, the average salary of aerospace, integrated circuits, biopharmaceuticals, medical devices and other industries ranked seventh, with 1 1, 17 and 20 respectively, and the average salary was11respectively.

With the promotion of the "Industry+Internet" strategy, the average salary of the new energy automobile industry increased by 1.3% compared with the previous quarter, while the salary of the Internet industry and the game industry decreased by 2.5% and 8.7% respectively.

BYD set up a factory in Jinan last year, and then it started a hot move. "Now there are more than 200 telephone consultations every day, and two or three hundred resumes can be received every day." In more than a month, BYD has signed labor contracts with 100 people. High salary and honesty, strong demand for talents and strong policy support, new industrial forces represented by high-end intelligent manufacturing are becoming the strongest talent pool.

In the 14th Five-Year Plan, science and technology economy, knowledge economy, digital economy and green economy will build brand-new economic formats and promote the formation of a new pattern of dual-cycle development. This is a new opportunity, a new outlet and a new destination for millions of graduates.

According to the employment data of graduates released by the Ministry of Education, nearly 60% of graduates in China have chosen jobs that have little or nothing to do with their majors. Under the wave of mobile internet and national learning, cross-disciplinary employment will only become easier and easier.

In other words, even if the development of disciplines can't keep up with the process of industrialization, the labor force can still professionalize itself through study and training.

But from the source, to really solve the employment problem of graduates, we should start with education and teaching. In particular, the education department should speed up the integration of Industry-University-Research and fundamentally solve the problem of adaptation between talents and social needs, employment and economic development.

20 19 government work report first proposed to expand the enrollment plan of higher vocational colleges, with the enrollment scale of 1 10,000 people. In recent years, relevant departments are also vigorously promoting the development of vocational education and strengthening the construction of cultivating high-skilled talents.

However, the education reform is a long-term project.

In the critical period, all market players can't lie flat.

Employees should lower their expectations, even if the salary is low and the work is hard, they must work hard first; The government should consider giving enterprises more relaxed employment and labor policies, reducing the burden and risks of employment, and making enterprises more willing to hire people and more daring to hire people; Enterprises should also seize the opportunity of "recruiting talents" in the trough period. ...

So * * * through the difficulties, you can still complete the big game of protecting employment, people's livelihood and economy.