The epidemic has caused nearly 4 million jobs in the United States to disappear forever.

According to The New York Times, after the US Department of Labor released the last non-farm employment report before the general election on June 2, 10, the "vase-like" trend of the job market basically took shape, which directly reflected the downward trend of the job market recovery. Further analysis of the data shows that the official report fails to fully reflect the reality, and many unemployed people, represented by women, are excluded from the labor market due to family and other reasons, making the problem of permanent unemployment increasingly prominent. At the same time, nearly 4 million jobs in the United States have disappeared forever, which will make it more difficult for the job market to absorb the unemployed.

An uncountable number of unemployed people.

The New York Times pointed out that six months after the US economy was shut down due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the unemployment data are describing the difficult situation of economic recovery, among which the structural contradictions are particularly prominent. Don't just look at the overall figures, but also observe the dynamic changes behind them. For example, we can see the lasting impact of this crisis by comparing the total number of workers on temporary leave and permanent dismissal every month.

According to The New York Times, judging from the monthly changes of the total number of unemployed people in the United States, the trend of the job market is "vase-shaped"

At the beginning of the outbreak, employers thought that the impact of the virus on business operations was short-lived, and they could recall their employees within a few months. But now, although employment continues to recover every month, the situation of permanent unemployment is worsening, because there is no indication that the epidemic will end soon, and it is not accurately reflected in the official report.

The last non-farm employment report 10 released by the US Department of Labor before the general election on June 2 shows that the number of non-farm employees in the United States increased by 66 10000 in September after seasonal adjustment, which was less than the market expectation of 850,000, and far lower than the revised1489,000 in August. The data also showed that of the 22 million jobs lost at the beginning of the epidemic in March, only 1 1.4 million were recovered. And more than120,000 Americans are still unemployed.

What's more, the official report on non-agricultural employment can only explain part of the situation, because the government uses a narrow definition of unemployment in its statistics, and only counts those who have been laid off temporarily or have found jobs in the past four weeks, those who have no jobs, and those who have not actively sought jobs in the past four weeks. Even if they want to find a job, they are considered to be divorced from the labor force and are not included in the statistics.

Those who leave the labor force but still want to find jobs are very similar to those who are officially classified as unemployed. The number of people increased sharply in April, and then decreased slowly. In other words, they have also been greatly impacted by the epidemic, but they have not been reflected in the official report and become "unemployed people who are not unemployed".

Among these people who are excluded from the labor force statistics, there is a kind of people called "marginal dependence"-people who have found a job in the past year but have not found a job in the past four weeks. In this category, more than 6,543,800,000 people said that the reason for not looking for a job at present is related to family or traffic problems, which has only declined slightly since the outbreak of the epidemic.

According to the analysis, as a large number of schools turn to online learning, many child care programs are forced to close, and some parents have to choose between sticking to their jobs and taking care of their children. Others may not want to go back to work for fear of endangering the health of their families, especially the elderly at home. Usually, when children don't go to school, such groups who give up their jobs for family reasons tend to increase, which is exactly the case this year, but the number is much higher due to the epidemic. If the number of this group remains high in autumn, it means that with the continuous spread of the virus, those who obviously have the ability to work cannot return to work smoothly and continue to be permanently unemployed outside the statistical report.

Neglected women

Another problem that is often overlooked by the outside world is that many of these unemployed people are women. According to the data of 10 year10.2, released by the US Department of Labor, the unemployment rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points in September, from 8.4% in August to 7.9% in September, while the labor participation rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 6 1.4% in September. The Wall Street Journal explained that the drop in the unemployment rate in September partly reflected the increase in permanent layoffs and more people leaving the labor market. This may be because of poor employment prospects or the responsibility of caring for children, so many people gave up job hunting, especially women.

The data shows that about 865,000 women withdrew from the labor market in September, about four times as many as men, and Hispanics accounted for more than one-third of the decline in female labor force. The large-scale withdrawal of women from the labor market coincides with the beginning of the new school year in the United States, and many children need to attend classes online at home. "These figures represent the cries of many parents in the past few months, but they are expressed in the form of economic data." Center for american progress economist Michael McDowell said.

According to Reuters, in the United States, women do face a more serious unemployment problem. As of August this year, women accounted for 47% of the working population, but the proportion of quitting the labor market was as high as 54%. The monthly current population survey, which is the basis of the government's regular employment report, has begun to show the initial signs of women's long-term unemployment. According to the analysis of CPS data by Nick Bunker, director of North American economic research at recruitment website Indeed, in the months before the outbreak, especially after the sharp increase in the number of women who left the labor market to take care of their families, the speed of returning to work was slower than that in the months before the outbreak.

Reuters said that about 865,000 women left the workforce last month, about four times as many as men.

Although the number of women and men who quit the labor market has surged since the outbreak of the epidemic, Bunker's analysis shows that the number of women who quit on the grounds of caring for children or families has increased by 178%, while the increase of men is less than 100%. He said that these data show that quitting the labor force for family reasons is happening intensively. On the other hand, women always pay more for their families.

Kimberly Churches, CEO of the American Association of University Women, said: "There are signs that the economic impact of the COVID-19 epidemic may gradually widen the gender gap in 2020 ... More importantly, women's careers have been seriously affected, because they often undertake most of the housework at home and take care of children attending distance classes."

A job that disappears forever

The New York Times believes that economists like to use charts to analyze the recovery. These charts look like the letters V, W or K, depending on the speed and duration of recovery. This time, the trend of unemployment data is "vase-shaped" However, whether it is like a letter or a vase, the real situation of recovery is often multifaceted, not simply described by a single number. The employment recovery is unstable and still changing dynamically. Although the total number of unemployed people is gradually decreasing, more and more people are becoming permanently unemployed, which is difficult to describe with a single picture.

According to the analysis, the number of people who can't find jobs because of family or traffic reasons has begun to show stability. If the epidemic situation is not effectively controlled, they will not be able to go to work normally for one day. That's why Congress needs to propose a bailout bill. In addition to direct financial assistance, it can also help those who are obviously able to work but are trapped at home to return to the labor market by reducing the community spread of the virus and providing more child care services.

But at present, it seems that Congress is still deadlocked on the new round of fiscal stimulus plan, which not only fails to provide the people with much-needed rescue measures, but also brings greater uncertainty to the economic recovery.

An economist survey released on October 5th, 65438/KLOC-0 shows that the road to economic recovery in the United States looks more bumpy than that in June. The National Association of Business Economists said that although the economy is expected to continue to grow, a group of 52 economists lowered their expectations for the economic growth rate in the last three months of this year and 202 1 year.

Economists lowered their annual economic growth forecast from June 10 to February 12 to 4.9%, and in June it was 6.8%. They predict that the US economy will contract by 4.3% at an annual rate this year, while the real gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 3.6% at an annual rate of 202/kloc-0, which is lower than the 4.8% predicted by the survey in June.

Slowing economic growth will make it more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. According to the survey, more than half of economists believe that 10%~20% jobs lost during the epidemic will not be recovered. In other words, of the 22 million jobs lost after the outbreak in March, 2.2 million to 4.4 million will disappear forever.

According to CNN, nearly 4 million jobs in the United States have disappeared forever.

CNN pointed out that the number of unemployed people listed as permanently losing their old jobs increased by 345,000 in September, bringing the number of permanently unemployed people to the highest point in seven years-3.8 million. More and more evidences show that the COVID-19 epidemic has dealt a lasting blow to the American economy.

(Source: CCTV News)