Influence of rural population migration to cities on cities

Urbanization is to let some farmers enter the city, but not only to let farmers enter the city, but more importantly, through the changes in employment and income structure of farmers entering the city, let them participate in and share the fruits of urbanization with dignity and share the modern life of the town.

Urbanization is not simply equal to the increase of urban construction, but ignores the optimization of industrial structure, the optimization of natural resources allocation and the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. More can't just care about the city, regardless of the countryside.

Urbanization should be based on the development of industry and agriculture, led by the market and effectively guided by the government. The organic combination of the two is an effective guarantee for the healthy development of urbanization. Urbanization can't be blindly compared, and we can't blindly pursue speed regardless of conditions.

■ General trend observation ■ Zhu Tiezhen

2 1 century, China has entered a new period of urbanization development, and there have also been many new problems worthy of study and attention.

First, develop urbanization with China characteristics.

China promotes urbanization with a large agricultural population, limited arable land resources and overall fragile natural resources and environmental carrying capacity. The urbanization of China has gone through a long and tortuous process. During the 28 years from 1950 to 1978, the urbanization rate increased from 1 1% to 18%, an increase of 7 percentage points, with an average annual increase of 0.28 percentage points. It belongs to the stage of slow urbanization. Since 1958, strict household registration reform has been implemented to restrict rural population from entering cities. From 1978 to 1998, urbanization entered a period of stable development, and the urbanization rate reached 33.35% from 1998, with an average annual increase of 0.77 percentage points in recent 20 years. China's urbanization has entered a period of rapid development. From 1998 to 2005, the total population of China increased from12.47 million to130.75 million, the urbanization rate increased to 43%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.42 percentage points, and the urban population reached 563 million (mainly due to the change of statistical caliber, which is impossible).

The coming 15 years will be an important stage for the rapid development of urbanization in China. It is predicted that in 20 10, China's urban population will reach about 650 million, and the urbanization rate will reach 47%, with an average annual increase of 0.8 percentage points. In 2020, the urbanization level of China will reach about 60%. If the total population of China reaches 654.38+0.47 billion by then, the urban population will be 840 million and the rural population will be 630 million.

Historically, the population of China has been mobile, not fixed, and many cities are immigrant cities. For example, there used to be more Ningbo people and everyone in northern Jiangsu in Shanghai, but there were not many real locals. Not to mention Shenzhen, most of them are immigrants from other places. In fact, in the early days of China's liberation, the population was also free to move, and it was not until 1958 that the hukou was closed. The development of human capital mainly depends on liquidity. Under the background of economic globalization and regional development integration, the rapid development of urbanization in China is not only a great historical opportunity for China, but also will greatly promote the economic and social development of China, which will be the biggest population migration and lifestyle change in human history and will surely have a far-reaching impact on the world. It is of historical significance to the urbanization and modernization of the world.

Second, get out of the misunderstanding of urbanization.

For a long time, the academic circles have different understandings and understandings of the concept and connotation of urbanization, and most of them give different explanations according to different disciplines and their own majors. This argument will last for a long time. In order to better promote the process of urbanization and make it develop healthily, it is absolutely necessary to correctly grasp the connotation of urbanization and raise awareness. In particular, we should get out of the misunderstanding of urbanization today.

(A) Urbanization is not simply equivalent to farmers entering cities. That is, urbanization ≠ farmers entering the city.

Urbanization is to let some farmers enter the city, but not only to let farmers enter the city, but more importantly, through the changes in employment and income structure of farmers entering the city, let them participate in and share the fruits of urbanization with dignity and share the modern life of the town. Internationally, the level of urbanization is usually expressed by the proportion of the total population living in cities and towns to the total population of the whole country. This method is relatively simple to operate and is conducive to horizontal comparison. However, the connotation of this urbanization is not comprehensive, and it is easy to produce urbanization quantity and ignore urbanization quality. The most important thing in the process of urbanization is to provide employment opportunities for farmers, absorb them to settle in cities and change their lifestyles. The essence of urbanization is the urbanization of lifestyle, not the simple urbanization of population. Farmers entering cities should be regarded not only as migrant workers, but also as urban residents and city owners, and gradually realize the long-term goal of narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas. At the same time, urbanization also includes the change of rural lifestyle.

Urbanization is a complex and comprehensive phenomenon. A large number of farmers go to cities to work, so they can't settle down in towns and enjoy the treatment of citizens. The original urban-rural dual structure has not been solved, and a new dual structure may appear inside the city, which is a manifestation of the low quality of urbanization.

(2) Urbanization is not equal to urban construction and unlimited urban expansion. Namely urbanization, urban construction and expansion.

Now there is a trend that accelerating urbanization means accelerating urban construction and expansion. Cities expand infinitely, and small cities should quickly become medium-sized cities; Medium-sized cities should accelerate to become big cities, and big cities should become megacities and even international cities as soon as possible.

Urbanization will inevitably promote the development and scale expansion of cities and towns, but urbanization is not simply equivalent to the increase in the number of urban construction, ignoring the optimization of industrial structure, the optimization of natural resources allocation and the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. We can't just focus on the cities and ignore the countryside. We can't just build cities without building rural areas. Therefore, urbanization is both a matter of cities and rural areas, and the central government attaches great importance to urban and rural planning. When the degree of urbanization reaches the intermediate stage and the degree of industrialization is high, the urbanization strategy must be transferred to the coordinated development of urban and rural areas in time. On the premise of not reducing urban productivity, we should reduce the urban-rural dual structure coefficient, narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, promote social equity, subsidize agriculture, improve farmers' quality and increase farmers' income. We should carry out all-round feedback to the countryside from the aspects of policy orientation, material support, fund inclination and project drive.

(3) Urbanization is not as fast as possible. That is, the earlier urbanization, the better.

Urbanization is a gradual process of natural history and economic and social transformation. Urbanization should be based on the development of industry and agriculture, led by the market and effectively guided by the government. The organic combination of the two is an effective guarantee for the healthy development of urbanization. Urbanization can't be blindly compared, and we can't blindly pursue speed regardless of conditions. You know, the faster urbanization, the more problems there will be. Urbanization is determined by the level of economic development and the increase of jobs. Too much emphasis on urbanization rate will bring great risks. A large number of farmers can't find jobs in cities, which will bring a series of problems such as life, society, environment and public security. It is necessary to avoid the lessons of excessive urbanization in Latin America and parts of Africa, strengthen macro-control of urbanization process, and solidly promote urbanization with moderate speed, scale and quality.

In a word, urbanization is a rather complicated concept, population concentration is only the superficial feature of urbanization, and the transformation of economic structure, the change of production mode and lifestyle are the internal driving force and substantive connotation of urbanization. Changes in broad sense lifestyle (including politics, culture, social organization, code of conduct, moral standards, values, etc.). ) is the comprehensive result of urbanization. Urbanization is a development process accompanied by economic growth, three industrial structure changes and social changes, and a civilized process of economic living space transfer, national economic growth mode change and significant changes in national consciousness and lifestyle. The object of urbanization is not only cities, but also rural areas, and it is also the process of gradual urbanization of rural production, lifestyle and quality of life. At the same time, it is also closely related to regional development.

Third, the urbanization strategy and dynamic mechanism with China characteristics.

To accelerate the process of urbanization, we must have a correct strategic orientation and seek an urbanization model with China characteristics. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee decided: "Adhere to the coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and small towns, improve the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities and towns, and actively and steadily promote urbanization in accordance with the principles of gradual progress, land conservation, intensive development and rational layout." This is a strategic policy of urbanization with China characteristics, which some people call a systematic strategy. That is, large, medium and small cities and small towns become an organic whole, forming an orderly structure, complementary advantages, coordinated functions, progress, harmony and high efficiency urbanization system. Systematic strategy is conducive to absorbing more non-urban population, promoting the development of surrounding small and medium-sized towns, and benefiting the needs of different groups of people and their self-choice of different types of cities.

After entering the new century, the national "Tenth Five-Year" urbanization development plan emphasizes "developing small towns as an important way to promote urbanization" and further puts forward the diversified urbanization development strategy of coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and small towns. According to world experience, the advanced development of big cities and megacities is the general law of world urbanization. Big cities and megacities are the main body of modernization, the essence of national economy and the supporting force for a country to participate in economic globalization competition. At present, there is still room for the development of big cities in China, especially in the central and western provinces. Therefore, the number and proportion of big cities should be appropriately increased, but big cities and megacities should not be over-developed. The bigger the city, the better. Blind expansion will bring many negative effects, such as high housing prices, traffic congestion, environmental pollution, deterioration of public security and other "urban diseases."

With the development of big cities, it is necessary for small and medium-sized cities with conditions to expand their scale reasonably and develop into moderately good cities. Cities of different sizes are an organic whole, and the urban scale structure is an open system with hierarchy, complementarity, high efficiency and strict "niche" requirements. All large, medium and small cities should develop reasonably under unified planning.

Choosing and determining the urbanization strategy of a country or region must conform to the national conditions and the actual situation of the region, and take the road of coordinated development of cost, economy, "compact" spatial layout and intensification. Don't unilaterally pursue urbanization rate, excessively rapid urban expansion, high, large, foreign and international, which will lead to disorderly expansion and massive loss of resources, including land and natural space. China must not take the road of urbanization with high cost and high waste. It is necessary to take the road of resource-saving and environment-friendly urbanization development, establish perfect resource-saving system and mechanism, resource-saving regulations, standards and supervision systems, and realize harmonious urbanization.

The most important latitude of urbanization strategy is the coordinated development of urban and rural areas and the "* * * win-win" of urban and rural interests. Although this is a dilemma, we must be firm. The urbanization of China in 2 1 century will take a different road from the traditional urbanization. We can neither directly deprive farmers of their interests in disguise, engage in "enclosure movement" and realize the "primitive accumulation" of urbanization, nor let the spread of "urban diseases" sacrifice the quality of urban life, let alone step into the trap of "excessive urbanization" in Latin American countries.

Urbanization cannot be separated from industrialization, but the motive mechanism of urbanization in China in the future is not only industrialization, but also the development of service industry. Not all regions should be built into manufacturing centers. At present, the development of urbanization in China is mainly driven by new industrialization. However, when the per capita GDP reaches 3000 US dollars and the urbanization level reaches more than 50%, the development of the tertiary industry will play a driving role in urbanization and become the follow-up driving force for the in-depth development of urbanization. At the same time, it should be coordinated with infrastructure layout, water resources distribution, population and capital flow. The main responsibility of the government is to make a good plan, handle the relationship between urban development capacity, land use and the construction of new and old cities, and create an institutional and policy environment conducive to urbanization.

Today's urbanization in China can't only be based on quantitative expansion, but should pay great attention to quality. We have a long way to go to improve the quality of cities, the quality of life of residents and the living environment, and it is impossible to do it overnight.