Interpretation of Five Latest Rules of New China: What is the impact on buying and selling houses?

I. Background and Core Purpose The timing of this policy is very noteworthy. Not those two boring meetings, but the economic and monetary dynamics of American imperialism. The Democratic Party dominates the White House and the Federal Reserve QE will fade out. These circumstances will lead to a long-term rise in the US dollar index, that is, the US dollar will continue to strengthen. This background is likely to lead to the accelerated outflow of domestic capital, especially the international hot money earned a lot in the China property market, and returned to the United States while cashing in high housing prices and high exchange rate. This is called opening up a new battlefield. Such a prospect may cause serious damage to China's economy, not just the collapse of the real estate market. Therefore, the urgent introduction of this policy is intended to reduce the heat and scale of transactions in the second-hand market, thus locking in hot money and preventing it from making profits. Second, the main role is to freeze the second-hand housing transactions and promote the destocking of the new real estate market. Protecting the new housing market means protecting the government from selling land, in other words, protecting the financial resources of local governments and striving for valuable transition time for the consideration and introduction of local measures to enrich the people in the later period. Third, increase tax reserves. The macro-economic prospect of China in the future is not optimistic. The dark clouds of internal and external troubles are overwhelming, and the way out of the predicament is very unreliable. Industrial upgrading is equivalent to aerial refueling, and the technical difficulty is too high; Not only is the marginal benefit of continuing to print money almost zero, but once the price is out of control, the consequences are unimaginable. The urbanization proposed at present has also been looked down upon by public opinion at home and abroad. The most sober analysis points out that the most likely result of taking this road is the Chinese enclosure movement, which will hit the south wall in combination with the national conditions, rather than the British leap in the past. In this case, it is always good for the government to reserve more dry food to cope with the shortage of food. Therefore, the 20% differential tax, which existed originally but was not strictly enforced, is now emphasized by the central government. Fourth, reduce the scale of the property market and prevent the property market from collapsing. Strictly implement the 20% policy. Although it is good for the new site, the transaction enthusiasm will be restrained due to the rising transaction cost of second-hand houses (whether buyers or sellers ultimately bear the extra costs or share them). The departure of a large number of effective buyers will inevitably lead to a more sluggish transaction. In this way, the scale of the property market has been controlled, and a much smaller market government has relatively strong control ability, thus preventing a catastrophic collapse. In fact, there is no room for house prices to rise (the pressure of public opinion is too great), and the foundation of continuous rise for many years has also been lost (M2 has reached 100 trillion, and the base is too large, so the speed of currency issuance in the future cannot be as high as in the past few years since 2007, otherwise the value of RMB will quickly degenerate into toilet paper, and the stability of the regime will be worrying). This chicken rib center can be ignored. Therefore, this time, it is particularly emphasized that the performance of local officials should be assessed by whether house prices really stop rising. The recent amazing rise of a few first-tier cities is nothing more than a game in which capital wants to cash out for everyone. The fool who is really fooled is not moving at present. This situation can be understood as death ray; As for the view that real estate acts as a reservoir of RMB excess, it was originally a concept created by senior financial officials in China, and it has long been the laughing stock of economists. V. Possible market reaction 1. The market price of the new site will not fall in the short term, but it will be bearish in the long term, because the main buyers of the new site are not just needed but speculators. Buying a new disk was originally intended to make a profit in second-hand transactions, but now it is much more difficult to make a profit (at least 20%, otherwise it will lose money), so buyers naturally have no enthusiasm. 2. The pressure on the outflow of the country's foreign reserves, whether it is the overseas hot money lurking in the China property market or the wealthy class preparing to emigrate to avoid danger, is not the same as before. This is actually what the central authorities are most concerned about. 3. The property market that has lost its investment/speculative value will gradually usher in a long-term downturn and may form a phased bottom in the next 3-5 years. The extent of the decline depends on the global economic environment and whether there is panic selling in China's real estate market. Comprehensive evaluation: for those who buy and sell houses, the wolf is coming! The government's practice is to close the door at midnight and beat the dog! Highlight 1: the scope of purchase restriction has been expanded, and the restricted purchase area should cover all administrative areas of the city. The State Council stressed that it is necessary to further improve the existing housing purchase restriction measures. At the same time, the restricted purchase area should cover all administrative areas of the city. The types of restricted housing should include all newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing; The qualification examination of house purchase should be moved forward to before signing the house purchase contract (subscription); Non-local registered households with 1 set or more houses, and non-local registered households that cannot provide local tax payment certificates or social insurance payment certificates for a certain number of years, should suspend the sale of houses within their administrative areas. Highlight 2: It is clear that we should continue to strictly implement the differentiated housing credit policy and raise the down payment and loan interest rate of second homes in cities where housing prices are rising too fast. Banking financial institutions should further implement the down payment ratio of the first home loan and the loan interest rate policy, and strictly implement the second (and above) housing credit policy. For cities where house prices are rising too fast, the local branches of the People's Bank of China can further increase the down payment ratio and loan interest rate of the second set of housing loans according to the price control targets and policy requirements of the urban people's government for new commercial housing. Highlight 3: increase taxes on real estate with excessive value-added, and clarify the expansion of property tax. In terms of taxation, the State Council emphasized giving full play to the regulatory role of tax policy. The departments of taxation, housing and urban and rural construction should cooperate closely. For example, the personal income tax payable for the sale of self-owned houses can be verified through historical information such as tax collection and management, house registration, etc. , should be strictly in accordance with the law in accordance with the transfer income of 20% levy. Summarize the experience of individual housing pilot cities in real estate tax reform, accelerate the expansion of the pilot work, and guide the rational consumption of housing. The tax authorities should continue to promote the application of real estate price evaluation methods and strengthen the tax collection and management of stock housing transactions. The tax authorities should continue to promote the application of real estate price evaluation methods and strengthen the tax collection and management of stock housing transactions. The article also mentioned the expansion of property tax. It is required to summarize the experience of individual housing pilot cities in real estate tax reform, accelerate the expansion of the pilot work, and guide the rational consumption of housing. Oh, my god If you don't go to bask in the quilt for 3 months, there will be 6 million mites to sleep with you at night. It is really unsafe to drink tap water now. There are too many heavy metal carcinogens! Come on! Buy a robot to help you with the housework!