Waterfall effect of stock index futures

Review of stock market rise since 1.998.

From June 6th, 2005, China stock market entered the second magnificent bull market, which lasted for more than 8 years. Its time span and spatial amplitude are unimaginable to ordinary people. I won't speculate on the specific space point, but it can be said that the past 3000 points are only basic, and 4000 points will definitely be stepped on. I can't predict what the final space point will be after 8 years, and I believe no one can accurately predict it. From June 6, 2005 to February 6, 2007 16, the time span was about 1.5 years, with an increase of 200%. In such a short period of time, this range is not small, but its nature is summarized as a recovery increase. Why? You can carefully review the market of 1 year and a half.

The first stage: the bear market ended and the stock market tentatively rebounded slowly (June 2005 ~ June 2005 +065438+ 10).

The characteristic of this stage is that although the bear market has ended, people are still unwilling to believe that the bull market has arrived. If it rises, it is still regarded as a bear market rebound. Everything is hesitant and cautious, for fear of disturbing the sleeping brother Xiong. Only a few prophets bravely bought it, because the stock was too cheap at this time, really too cheap. Peanut, there may not be the same opportunity in ten years. ........................................................................................................................................

The second stage: waking up from a big dream (165438+2005 10 ~ May 2006)

The second stage is characterized by raising costs and getting rid of unreasonable areas with low valuation. There is nothing at this stage, but there are more and more people who are reasonable and fewer and fewer people who are skeptical. Everyone knows that the opportunity has come, so let's talk about it quickly. At the end of the second stage of the market in early May 2006, a wave of crazy small market was formed, and then there was a big adjustment …

The third stage: spectacular appearance (August 2006 ~ February 2007)

From May to August, 2006, after the second stage of thorough cleaning, the stock index began to shine in August, 2006. Since August, under the strong pull of elephant stocks, the stock index has entered the main rising wave strongly. At this stage, the cows don't have time to go back to eat grass at all, and they have to pull up and pull up again, which makes people crazy. The sales department is crowded, and new investors open new accounts again and again. At this stage, as long as you buy stocks, you can make money anyway. The stock index has risen like a mad dog, so it is called crazy dog wave. However, no matter how powerful the power is, it is impossible for the stock index to rise forever, and the cows will always turn around and eat grass. During 20071October 30-February 6, 65438+, bulls bowed their heads and the market plunged nearly 500 points in six days. The plunge caused by the skyrocketing has made many people unbearable, and it has also given investors a vivid lesson. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious when entering the market.

Over the past year and a half, although the market has gone through several stages, from the general trend, the annual stock index of Huogou basically rose unilaterally, and investors gained a lot. Although the stock index has risen very high, the trend has not changed. The continuous innovation of stock index has opened up the space of bull market, enhanced the confidence of investors, attracted a lot of incremental funds, and laid the foundation and foreshadowing for the next stage of market evolution.

2. Possible fluctuations in the stock market in 2007

Disadvantages of the 2007 index:

1). The P/E ratio is too high: now the average P/E ratio of the stock market has increased from about 1 5 times of/kloc-0 half a year ago to nearly 40 times now. No matter from which angle, this data is on the high side at this stage. From the perspective of sustainable development, there is no way out. China is a fast-developing emerging market, supported by rapid macroeconomic fundamentals. Coupled with the appreciation of RMB, the P/E ratio can be overestimated appropriately, and the acceptable long-term average P/E ratio fluctuation value can be considered as 20 to 25 times (15 times in Europe and America), and it can't be separated from 30 times at most in the long run. So the high P/E ratio is a problem.

2) There are too many short-term profit-making disks: 1 half a year, and the stock index ranges from 1000 to 3000. The rate of return on capital in this market is too high, which is basically profiteering. Generally, many people are extremely happy when the annual rate of return of funds is 15%. At present, the annual return rate of funds in this market is above 50%, which is abnormal. History tells us that the market will not let you make money so comfortably, and the market will definitely let investors raise costs in their own way.

3). The market enters the stage of theme stocks: The general bull market's plate speculation is a general mode, starting with value investment, then spreading to the speculation of second-tier blue-chip stocks, then speculating on the plate with substantive themes, and finally entering the stage of garbage speculation. Now this market is basically going to the stage of crazy speculation. No matter whether the news is true or not, let's speculate first. Roughly looking at individual stocks, each stock has basically experienced a period of skyrocketing, so how much room for further growth? All these indicate that the market is coming to an end.

4). From the perspective of wave theory, the rising section from February 6, 2007 is very similar to the 5 waves in a slightly larger band. What's after 5 waves? It is an adjustment wave corresponding to a larger band.

5) From Gann's time period, the three to five weeks after the Spring Festival in 2007 is an extremely dangerous time window, which is the coincidence point of the main time period with large fluctuations and the sub-time period with small fluctuations. If it rises during this period, it will be more dangerous, which indicates that the time period will fall at the apex of space, indicating that the decline is inevitable.

Generally speaking, the rising power of the large-cap stock index is gradually weakening, the rising time is gradually shortening, the time and space for falling are increasing, and the driving structure for falling is stronger every time. The Shanghai Composite Index may be between 3100 and 3,500. The first high point after the Spring Festival in 2007 will peak within 3-5 weeks after the Spring Festival, and then there will be a large-scale adjustment. The first reference point for adjustment is the low point of the last plunge of 254 1.

At the same time, what is the purpose of technical adjustment, in order to better rise next time? In the technical adjustment, we can wait for the P/E ratio to gradually keep up with the increase of the stock price and form a fundamental support for the stock price. At the same time, in order to raise the cost of investors and digest the profit-making disk. That is what people often say, exchange time for space.

* Third, grasp the trend *

1. Raising interest rates will not change the trend of bull market.

The People's Bank of China decided to raise the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions from March 6, 2007. The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits of financial institutions was raised by 0.27 percentage points, from the current 2.52% to 2.79%; The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans was raised by 0.27 percentage points from the current 6. 12% to 6.39%; The benchmark interest rates for other grades of deposits and loans have also been adjusted accordingly.

The interest rate hike is undoubtedly a negative for the stock market, and it will indeed have a certain impact on the stock market. However, the impact of this interest rate hike on the stock market is not so great that it is not enough to change the pattern of this round of bull market. Therefore, there is no need to raise interest rates to adjust the operating ideas of long-term capital investors.

The impact of previous interest rate hikes on the stock market;

First rate hike:1May 993 15.

The People's Bank of China decided to raise the deposit and loan interest rate of RMB. The annual interest rates of time deposits of all grades increased by 2. 18 percentage points on average, and the interest rates of various loans increased by 0.82 percentage points on average. This interest rate hike caused the Shanghai Composite Index to drop 27.43 points on the first trading day.

Second rate hike:1July 993 1 1.

The central bank raised interest rates again, and the one-year time deposit rate was raised from 9. 18% on May 5, 1993 to 10.98%, with an increase of 19.6 1%. The first trading day fell by 23.05 points.

The two interest rate hikes of 1993 caused the Shanghai Composite Index to drop rapidly from 1392 to 777 in the following three months, with a decrease of 44.2%.

Third rate hike: 65438+2004129 October.

The one-year deposit and loan interest rate was raised by 0.27%. On the way down, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 1.58% and closed at 1.320 on the same day. After several trading days of consolidation, there was a slight rebound, but it still failed to shake off the downward trend. On June 6, 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 1000 points, hitting a multi-year low of 998 points.

Fourth rate hike: March 2005 17

The central bank decided to raise the interest rate of housing loans. This means that for the vast majority of citizens who buy houses and live in their own homes, the burden of mortgage payment will increase by 5%, reaching 10%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.96% on the same day and 1.29% the next day. After a slight rebound, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 998.23.

Fifth rate hike: April 28, 2006

On April 28th, 2006, the loan interest rate of financial institutions was raised by 0.27 percentage point, from the current 5.58% to 5.85%. On the 28th, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower at 14 points, with the highest at 1445 and closed at 1440, up 23 points or 1.66%. After that, it still maintained an upward trend, and launched a wave of short-selling in May, which reached the highest point 1757 on July 5, 2006.

From 1993 to 1998, the United States experienced several interest rate hikes, but the US stock market rose from 3,520 points to 8,300 points, with an increase of 136%, and walked out of the big bull market that grew up in five years.

To sum up, in the first four interest rate hikes, because the leading role of real estate is relatively large, the impact is also relatively large, which will inevitably have a great impact on the market. At the same time, the stock market has not been reformed, and large market values such as ICBC and Bank of China have not been introduced. But now, in addition to changes in market value, the key is that investors have gradually adapted to raising interest rates. Judging from the interest rate hike last year, the stock market has undergone fundamental changes. Raising interest rates is no longer a poison, but a good medicine to promote the healthy development of the stock market. Some people don't understand the real meaning and purpose of raising interest rates and will blindly follow suit. In fact, the culprit of the traditional market crash is largely because of panic, so the mentality of investors is the key.

2. The launch date of stock index futures is the time of deep adjustment of A shares.

Since all good things must come to an end, there will be no bull market in running all the way. People are concerned about when the stock market will adjust. When will it end? This will start with the engine of the bull market. I have been thinking about the atypical bull market in China since 2003, so on May 19, 2003, I specially worked overtime to write "Typical Beginning of Atypical Bull Market" and published it on the front page of china securities journal. In my opinion, the engine of China bull market used to be the government. If the government doesn't pay, there will be no bull market. This is what people often call a "policy city". The rapid economic growth will inevitably lead to the demand for securitization, so the stock market dynamically reflects the economic trend in advance, which is the so-called "barometer" mechanism. However, China's rapid economic growth was not accompanied by a corresponding rise in the stock market, but a five-year bear market, which has been puzzling investors in China stock market. In fact, the reason is simple, that is, the problem between the driver and the engine. This car in China stock market was built by the government, and the government was the driver, using an old diesel engine. The investor is not a driver, so I can't think of changing the engine. They just want to "hitchhike" and don't want to drive, so no one drives when the government gets off. In the first half of 2004, this bull market started once. The driver wanted the car to leave the factory, but no one took it over. When the driver got off the bus, the car stalled. So the stock market in 2004 was like an emergency landing after the plane took off. The management began to look for new driving forces and began the reform of non-tradable shares. The share-trading reform has solved two problems: the first is to solve the problem of "drivers" and the second is to solve the problem of stock market engines. There are three motives for institutional investors to enter the market. The first motive is the securitization of China's economic growth, and then they profit from the securitization process; The second motivation is to create a new game in the stock market and then make a profit in the big merger; The third motivation is to turn enterprises into commodities and then make profits in the market where "enterprise commodities" are made. Behind the full circulation market is the commercialization of enterprises, behind the commercialization of enterprises is the securitization of finance, and behind the securitization of finance is the industrialization of securities market. All three are indispensable, which constitutes the foundation of this big bull market, so this year, China's "invisible bull market" surfaced.

The difference between behavioral economics and theoretical economics is just like that between Catholicism and Christianity. Adam Smith's market definition, like the Catholic God, is out of reach in space. Nash's balanced market definition pulls God down from the altar and becomes a game between buyers and sellers. Therefore, in the market of behavioral economics, drivers can change, and so can their behaviors. When the driving force changes from government to institutional investors, the new driving force will change the engine and the rules of the market will change. Because when the government is the driver, the first principle of the stock market is stability; In the era when institutions are drivers, the origin of the stock market is volatility. The reasons for the fluctuation sometimes come from the buyer and sometimes from the seller. Just like the trajectory of a car, the trend lies in the direction of the road and the fluctuation lies in the driver's driving. Analyzing the market trend from this principle, the timing and depth of stock market adjustment mainly depend on the behavior of investment institutions. Some institutions predict that next year will be "rising at the beginning of the year, adjusting in the middle of the year and rebounding at the end of the year". However, if we analyze the engine of this bull market in detail, we will find that the greater probability of stock market adjustment occurs at the beginning of the year, or more accurately, when stock index futures are launched.

I define one of the driving forces of this bull market as "immigration effect", that is, the bull market driven by OTC investment institutions as "new immigrants" in the stock market. It turns out that the new immigrants outside the venue are institutions, and many of them are overseas institutions or fund managers trained by overseas institutions. Institutional investors have a professional habit of "dressing up" every time they publish quarterly reports, so that investors, bosses or shareholders can appreciate their foresight. Therefore, the closer to the bull market at the end of the year, the higher the rise, because fund managers are chasing up to cover their positions. China's stock market rose the most among the global stock markets this year. If any fund manager hasn't used up his investment quota in China by the end of the year and doesn't hold the China blue chip with the highest increase this year, it means that you haven't been optimistic about the market. Because of this pressure, everyone will use up the quota before the end of the year, so the better the blue chip rises, the higher the stock market.

The conclusion of this mechanism is that after the end of each year, institutions will push up the market first and wait for an opportunity to sell. The work of "decorating the window" has been completed, so there is no need to continue "decorating". This kind of professional habit will cause a small adjustment in the market. If there are safe-haven investment tools in the market, there will be a big callback, because institutions can first lay out in the derivatives market and then start selling. This hedging transaction can make the fund's losses in the stock swap be hedged by the gains in the derivatives market, so that the fund's net value will not fall sharply in the process of fund swap. Therefore, in addition to the fundamental factors, we should be cautious when looking at the stock market adjustment from the behavioral aspect: look at the "window period" in minor; See "Cang" in major.

This mechanism tells everyone that most of the adjustments after "decorating the window" are minor adjustments. However, after the introduction of stock index futures, because institutions can use derivatives to hedge the losses of stocks, there may be a large callback. Large-scale correction has dual functions, one of which is to adjust the position of the mechanism. In the process of position adjustment, the net book value will not change much due to the income of derivative investment hedging losses, but the available cash will increase. The second is the "shock warehouse" of retail investors. When the correction exceeds a certain point, retail investors will become frightened. Therefore, when retail investors follow suit, they create opportunities for institutions. Therefore, the sale and hedging of derivatives by institutions will create new investment opportunities in the market.

The game between institutions and retail investors is an eternal theme. Everyone will say that investors should be protected, but what kind of investors should be protected? Is it an institution or a retail investor? They all have accounts. The protection of retail investors can only be realized from the aspects of system, procedure and information disclosure, while the new products on the market are basically aimed at institutional investors. Therefore, in the process of market and product innovation, protecting investors naturally tends to protect institutional investors. The opening of derivatives market and the introduction of stock index futures are actually mainly to provide new hedging tools for protecting institutional investors.

So I think there may be some adjustment after "decorating the window" early next year. However, after the introduction of stock index futures, the market may undergo deep adjustment. As long as the adjustment in the bull market does not fall below the psychological line of 20%, the tone of the bull market still exists, and the institution will continue to launch a new round of promotion. This is my view on the stock market adjustment mechanism next year.

China stock market has changed its driving factors, and the new driving factors have changed its engine, so the market has produced a new "accelerator" from the fundamental and policy aspects:

The first is the appreciation of the renminbi. It has risen by 3% this year, and experts predict that it will rise by more than 5% next year, so the expectation of RMB appreciation will push the stock market to continue to improve;

The second is corporate profits. It is expected that the company's profits will greatly exceed expectations next year, which is the internal driving force and fundamental factor of China's economic growth securitization;

The third is the return of "invisible income". When the interests of management are out of touch with the stock price, the operating cash flow of listed companies often has three exports: one export flows to the head office; An export flows to an affiliated company; An export flows to a listed company. Therefore, the management of listed companies should consider profit diversion while making money, and balance different stakeholders in the three pockets through profit diversion. Big pockets usually belong to major shareholders, whose interests are linked to the hat of the management of listed companies. Small pocket belongs to management and affiliated institutions, and the cash flow of small pocket is related to the indirect interests of management and affiliated institutions, and also to whether listed companies can continue to make profits. Therefore, after taking care of both ends, the rest will flow into the pockets of listed companies. When such a mechanism exists, a considerable part of the profits actually created by listed companies will flow out of listed companies. However, after the share-trading reform, three factors will change the above mechanism: first, the management's equity incentive will start next year, and the management of listed companies is ready to accumulate distributable profits; The second is the improvement of corporate governance level and transparency. Because there are powerful investment institutions entering the market, institutional people do not participate in management, but the function of supervision and management has been strengthened, so the three pockets are not so easy to adjust casually; Third, new accounting standards and new evaluation methods. Market value assessment will gradually replace the original net value assessment. The new accounting system and new assessment methods will also make the cash flow return to A shares, and the unexpected profits will drive the stock price to rise further.

The fourth is tax reform. Tax system reform has been put on the agenda, and "two taxes in one" will solve a major problem in China's enterprise system. In order to open to the outside world, we implement preferential tax policies for foreign-funded enterprises (wholly foreign-owned, Sino-foreign joint ventures and Sino-foreign cooperation). In addition to "two exemptions and three reductions or three exemptions and five reductions", foreign investors actually enjoy many preferential treatments, and the actual tax paid is only about half of that of domestic enterprises on average. The merger of the two taxes and the tax reduction rate after the merger of the two taxes are estimated to reduce the new unified tax rate by about a quarter. That is to say, at the original profit level, the tax reform will increase the profits of listed companies by 8%, reaching 10%, which will directly affect the A-share market in China, which is still dominated by domestic state-owned enterprises, and will also encourage foreign investors to participate in listed companies in China and promote the diversification of the ownership structure in the A-share market.

The fifth is the opening of the securities market. The opening of the A-share market is also a game between the state and multinational companies, which leads to the exclusion of small and medium-sized enterprises from the China market. QFII policy and other policies open to overseas institutional investors are all formulated under the influence of the world's top banks. Take QFII as an example. In Taiwan Province Province and Hongkong, no company can get QFII quota. Large multinational financial institutions control China's opening to the outside world, and this situation will improve next year. I predict that the application threshold for QFII will be lowered next year, the financial market will be further opened, and even those hot money that sneaked into the China market through import and export quotations may become new institutional investors.

The sixth is the supervision of institutional investment. At present, in addition to fund companies, if general enterprises take investing in stocks as one of their main businesses, it is best to use "head account" for investment. Because compared with natural person's investment, legal person's return on investment is subject to various taxes besides the advantages of legal person's limited liability. China's current tax system actually prevents institutions from investing in securities. Many institutions invest behind natural persons, on the one hand for invisibility, and on the other hand for tax evasion. Taxation on institutional investment income not only puzzles the standardization of institutional investment, but also hinders the issuance and trading of innovative products such as asset securitization and real estate trust.

Seventh, the integration of A+H. With more and more blue-chip stocks listed and H-shares returned, A+H mode will gradually lead to the integration of A-share market and Hong Kong market, and then raise the issue of B-share market withdrawing from the historical stage. The closure of the B-share market should learn from the experience of non-tradable shares reform, and be solved by means of agreement repurchase, privatization delisting or quasi-QFII, so as to strengthen the integration between A-shares and H-shares.

Generally speaking, from the macro, micro, domestic, international, tax reform and enterprise system reform, China stock market will continue to have a good foundation next year. The first decline in the growth rate of savings this year is only the beginning, and it is the beginning of large-scale capital investment in the stock market. Saving is like water storage, and investment is like flood discharge. The reform of opening up the automatic inflow of savings funds into the securities market has just begun.

3. Grasp the trend

There are many ways to judge the trend, such as Dow theory, wave theory, moving average theory, and even as simple as putting a ruler on the chart. People have different ideas about how to grasp the trend and make it work for themselves. In fact, the trend is as simple as that, which can be described as: long market is long and short market is short. It's easier said than done. You can't blame yourself, and you can't blame others. In fact, this is determined by human nature. Many weaknesses of human nature come from nature, such as fear, laziness, impulsiveness and greed. And many excellent qualities need to be cultivated and experienced, which leads to people's inability to integrate knowledge and practice. When reading stock reviews, stock reviewers usually tell the reasons for being bearish and point out the future support or resistance. They also kindly suggested that the support should be low and the rebound should be low, and the resistance should be reduced. The courage of these gentlemen is very commendable, but we can't agree with them. If they rebound in the short-term market, they will be submerged in a downward waterfall. Short in the bull market, I am afraid I will step on a helicopter. The trend is invincible. Can the resistance support during these trend movements compete with the trend? The trend is as simple as that. You only need simple thinking to have simple actions, but in this market, simple actions are often the least resisted. On the market side, the deep decline is brewing a rebound; More rises are brewing down. But how many people can grasp this shot? There is a saying: as long as there are people in the market who are going against the trend, then the trend will not end. In the process of the trend, how many "smart people" who dare to be the first in the world are ruthlessly eliminated by the market. The trend can be determined. The reason why so many people lose money stems from human nature, that is, knowing the direction of the trend, but unconsciously choosing to compete with the trend because of greed and fear, or thinking that they are smarter than the market; Second, I don't know what the trend is, and I walk in the market completely by feeling. Therefore, when the trend is clear, when the market is in full swing, when you know and understand, it will be difficult for you to make money, and it is not too late to do it again. The important thing is that you should be out when you are confused, not in. You can't bet your own money on your confusion. It's no use being smart. The key is to be a moneymaker.