Why are housing prices in Hunan getting higher and higher?

Here, I would like to express some humble opinions, mainly from a macro perspective to qualitatively analyze the social factors with China characteristics in high housing prices. 1, why is the ratio of house price to income in China so high? The ratio of house price to income is an important indicator to measure whether the real estate price is reasonable abroad. Traditionally, the ratio of house price to income in developing countries is 3-6: 1. However, in many big cities in China, this index is generally around 10. Ordinary citizens in hot cities like Beijing and Shanghai may have to eat and drink for more than ten years before they can afford to buy a house, so it has become a common phenomenon to buy a house with consumer loans in advance. Personally, I think it's not that the ratio of house price to income is unscientific. There must be a reason why it can be accepted by society as the criterion of western housing prices. As for why it is "ineffective" in China at present, I think it is caused by China's special national conditions relative to western countries. To sum up, this special national situation is that, on the one hand, with the reform and opening up, the process of industrialization and urbanization is becoming more and more obvious. With the development of rural land contract system and agricultural technology, a large number of rural people have moved to cities. There are not only migrant workers here (in fact, their purchasing power has little influence on urban housing prices), but also small factory owners and bosses who have become rich in rural areas, and thousands of college students in Qian Qian who have changed their fate by reading. However, China's special national conditions are relative to developed countries, and there is nothing special in the process of industrialization and urbanization compared with other developing countries, so this can only explain why the real estate industry is so hot in the past two years, but it can't explain why the ratio of house price to income in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai is ridiculously high. Personally, I think one of the reasons for the high housing prices in these first-tier cities is the remnants of China's fragmented planned economy and strict household registration system. In the past decades, the planned economy and the household registration system have been huge obstacles for China people to develop population mobility in cities. How many China people living in "local" and "rural" areas don't know whether Beijing is better or Shanghai (excluding Hong Kong and Taiwan)? They have gathered the best universities, hospitals, cultural and entertainment facilities, high-end shopping places, top hotels, the most convenient overseas routes and so on in China-all these are reasons to attract the rich and investors. Even if most of them don't have hukou in Beijing or Shanghai, things that were impossible in the planned economy era, such as buying a house in a different place, are becoming more and more convenient now. The population of the United States is only 300 million, but they have been migrating freely for hundreds of years, with first-class metropolises such as new york, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco (two metropolitan areas and one California). Canada has a smaller population, but they also have some famous metropolises. The house price directly depends on local employment and income (the essence of house price should be like this). A continent four times the population of the United States is surrounded by two cities. Why would a rich man want to go? This is why Beijing and Shanghai account for a quarter of the country's real estate. Did the old citizens buy all these? Of course it's impossible. We must know that the combined GDP of the two places only accounts for about 8% of the country. Our family has a distant relative in Shanghai. It is very difficult to drive a bus and live in that old-fashioned shabby building. A residential area is being developed near the house where he lives now. My father asked him why he didn't change apartments. He said that they couldn't afford those houses, and he didn't even want to see them. You know, it's in Yangpu District (equivalent to places like Fengtai in Beijing). My feeling is that the newly developed commercial housing and high-grade residential areas in Beijing and Shanghai are more to meet the needs of rich people and investors from other places than to improve the living conditions of ordinary citizens. In other words, when we want to calculate the ratio of house price to income, it is not in line with China's current national conditions to use only the income of local residents. However, if we really count those who buy houses, whether they are business tycoons, investors or local white-collar workers in China, the price-to-income ratio of Jinling is really around 6: 1, or even smaller. By the same token, due to the influence and inertia of planned economy and household registration system, the ratio of house price to local residents' income is generally higher than the world standard of 6: 1 in major provincial capital cities and some coastal cities in China because of the same attraction to surrounding areas. Generation after generation, house prices are like brushes. He classified people according to their ability to create wealth and future wealth: the rich emigrated, the poor stayed in Beijing, Shanghai or coastal areas, ordinary people could only stay in second-and third-tier cities, and the vast majority of migrant workers finally returned to towns. Cruel as it is, it may be true. 2. Why is there a bubble in our real estate market in China? What I have described above does not represent the housing prices in China, especially the housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai are normal. I just think a bubble has its rationality. Housing prices far beyond the affordability of local people are abnormal and there are a lot of bubbles. Although Beijing and Shanghai have good long-term development prospects, especially Shanghai, house prices, especially the rental market of houses, are directly related to the investment income on the one hand, and the local employment situation and income level on the other. Since last year, Shanghai's housing prices have hit record highs, but the rental market is relatively depressed. There are also newspaper reports that Shanghai Electric Power Company found many houses vacant for a long time (interested students can refer to relevant reports). It is obviously unreasonable that the house price is too high and the rent has to be reduced. Raising interest rates may be one way, but now I have to think about why so much money is invested in real estate, even if the rent is not high, the room for house prices to rise is extremely limited. In other words, why not jump! I think one explanation is that many investors really can't think of other places to invest-money is idle anyway. Take my own family as an example. Going home during the winter vacation, I discussed with my parents about buying a house in Shanghai. I am firmly opposed to it. The simple reason is that the ratio of house price to income is too high. At that time, I thought that Shanghai's housing prices would definitely fall, at least slightly. Therefore, the entire Shanghai property market rose slightly during the summer vacation compared with the beginning of the year. A few days ago, my parents finally decided to buy a house in Shanghai. Near the outer ring of Xinzhuang, it is a quarter of an hour's walk from Xinzhuang Station (similar to the East Fifth Ring Road in Chaoyang, Beijing), which is 6200 square meters, which is 300 square meters more expensive than at the beginning of the year. I said that my first year of graduation was in vain. I have no objection this time. It is not that I am optimistic about the Shanghai property market. There is indeed a reason. I'm afraid you won't believe me. My family lives in a small county town with a registered population of 1.2 million below Ningbo. The newly developed buildings in the urban area have risen to 5700-6000 square meters, which is the kind of six or seven-story board building. In my words, even if there is a bubble, the bubble in Shanghai is not as serious as ours. My parents are both middle school teachers. They have earned a little money by buying and selling real estate (shops) in the past two years, but compared with my mother's colleagues, they are very ordinary. Many just directly speculate on land. As far as we are concerned, speculation in houses is the lowest, followed by shops, and speculation in land is the most profitable. There are two unique phenomena in China. First, rural hukou is better than resident hukou, because once rural hukou is demolished, urban hukou gives money, and money is not as good as land; Second, demolition is better than selling in the market, because the government generally compensates according to the market price 120%. In fact, the real speculators are not only private entrepreneurs, but also the "middle class" with certain education and skills. Especially for people in hydropower, tobacco, telecommunications, finance and taxation, public security, medical care, education and other units, if the profits of private entrepreneurs can be expanded and reproduced, then the "middle class" like our family really has no other investment channels, and let us go to stocks? We don't trust what we can't see, and we are easily influenced by authorization and operated in a black box. Look at the performance of the stock market. Hong Kong's real estate has experienced a bubble, but the property market and the stock market jumped together, which was not good for more than ten years. However, we can see that the bursting of rib's real estate bubble is essentially caused by the profit-seeking nature of capital. "Sell one tendon and buy back four Americans", if the tendon land is 1 in the United States, then the average land price of tendon land is 100 times that of the United States, and the per capita GDP is only 1.5 times. More importantly, at that time, many Tibetans had already purchased real estate in the United States. Seeing that similar houses are many times more expensive than those in the United States, why not invest their money in the United States? After all, America is not a "messy place". The same is true of Hong Kong. Aside from other factors (such as the Southeast Asian financial crisis), at least with the increasing convenience of exchanges between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, the narrowing of the urban development gap between Shenzhen and Hong Kong should narrow the property price gap between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Back in Chinese mainland, especially some middle class, gold collars and private entrepreneurs in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, we really can't buy a house abroad, even if we can afford it, we may not be able to live there. Shall we use our spare money to buy back 1000 large color TV sets? That's a joke. Although there is no risk in putting it in the bank, we really can't accept it to add value. Therefore, when we see capital-intensive real estate, after all, land and real estate are limited, so everyone is eager for it, even if there is no room for appreciation at present, everyone is unwilling to take it-really because there is no other investment way to go.