Population determines the development and economic growth rate of a city, so what about the population introduction in Chongqing in 20 18?

In fact, many people don't understand the fact that the population of Chongqing exceeds that of Australia, but the registered population in the nine districts of the main city is only over 6 million, accounting for less than one-fifth of the total population. The population of Greater Chongqing is more like a province, while the population of the main city (similar to the provincial capital) is less. The nine districts of the main city cover an area of more than 5,000 square kilometers, which exceeds the jurisdiction of Shanghai. The real built-up area is only over 500 square kilometers. A large number of urban areas are wasteland and rural areas, and even a large number of bare wasteland can be seen in the core area. Some areas are shocking. On the whole, the main urban area of Chongqing is vast and sparsely populated. Not so many people live in enough houses, and the density of houses exceeds the population density. It can be clearly seen from Google Maps that the scale and population density of the built-up area in the outer suburbs of Chongqing's main city are too low to meet the basic requirements of population agglomeration in big cities because of the barrier and division of landscape system. The housing vacancy rate in these areas is also the highest, which is the grave of real early real estate speculators.

Another noteworthy fact is that the elderly population in Chongqing is growing rapidly. As can be seen from the figure below, the proportion of elderly people over 65 in Chongqing even exceeds that in Guizhou. We can observe this in traditional aging areas such as dadukou district, Shapingba District and Banan District. There are many old people in the street, which makes you feel that you are in the county seat. This is the main reason why I don't suggest not optimistic about these areas. Our big data analysis model shows that the acceleration of real estate depreciation by aging is almost catastrophic. Ranjiaba, a rich area ten years ago, is still subject to aging and has not slowed down. Aging is accompanied by a low birth rate, and the working population of young people of school age is insufficient. You can often see residential areas, and there are very few commercial cleaners around the age of 40. Most of them are over 50 years old, and it is difficult to recruit young people, which has become the same problem faced by many industries in Chongqing.

Then, for a city with such a poor urban population, such a slow urbanization process and such a serious aging, it is not easy to double the skyrocketing housing prices within one year mainly by domestic demand. Especially from the three cycles of Chongqing property market on 20/200817, Chongqing housing prices have been loved by people all over the country mainly because of low valuation, that is, cheap. Therefore, Chongqing's housing prices are also known as "a clean stream". Most outsiders think that Chongqing people are happy and healthy living in such a place with low prices.

But this is just an illusion. From the microscopic point of view, real estate, as a large class of assets allocated by families in China, is an important chip for providing for the aged to some extent. According to incomplete statistics, although Chongqing has three houses per capita, ten years have passed and many people's loans have not been settled. The housing price in Chongqing is extremely low, but the number of non-bank mortgage houses in Chongqing is lower than that in Guangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which seriously affects the liquidity of the second-hand market, which is also an important reason for the generally low appraisal price of banks. These houses, which have not risen much in the past ten years, include old dilapidated houses, fund-raising houses and affordable housing waiting for demolition. Some of them are due to property rights disputes, some are unable to repay loans, and some have high expectations for housing prices. Even if they have three suites, their house is difficult to realize, and even the liquidity is zero. What is the concept that their house cannot be sold for ten years or needs to be sold at a loss? It also means that while most Chongqing people are getting older, the real estate premium has underperformed the whole country, and they have not enjoyed the dividend of Chongqing's rapid development. There is neither deposit accumulation nor asset appreciation. So now you should know why most people in Chongqing lack attention to real estate, lack confidence in future income growth and Chongqing's development, and live their own shabby lives.

Because Chongqing used to pursue the idea of selling land at low prices, the demolition of the core area was seriously lagging behind (everyone should understand the land finance). Since Chengdu began to develop southward in 2009, the demolition work has been in full swing. The land in Chengdu has always been more expensive than that in Chongqing, so the demolition money is also more expensive than that in Chongqing. This can be seen from the fact that the per capita deposit in Chengdu far exceeds that in Chongqing. These residents had the first primitive accumulation, and after the awakening of Chengdu market in the later period, the purchasing power and desire of Chengdu people were out of control. From the first-Mover advantage, Chongqing is not only 5- 10 years behind other developed cities in China, but also half a rank behind Chengdu next door. After Chengdu entered the new stage of purchase restriction protection and lottery to buy a house, Chongqing once again became a leek land.

Insufficient inflow of foreign population, aging and poor urban population all restrict the development of Chongqing property market and Chongqing economy. However, in 20 18, Chongqing ushered in an excellent opportunity, that is, with the help of two most important high-speed trains, it can enhance the population radiation to surrounding towns and solve the increasingly serious problems such as insufficient permanent population in the main city and destocking of the property market. In the past, Chengdu and Chongqing enjoyed a population of 1 100 million in Sichuan. According to the common sense of geography, the population of eastern Sichuan flows to Chongqing, and the population of western Sichuan flows to Chengdu. Sadly, however, in the second-tier cities in eastern Sichuan, such as Dazhou, Guang 'an and Nanchong, which are closest to Chongqing, the population flowing into Chengdu is far more than that flowing into Chongqing. Even though these cities are much closer to Chongqing than Chengdu, the advantages of Chengdu are: many high-income job opportunities, strong urban cultural attraction, rich educational resources, many preferential policies for talents, and a mature real estate market. These are the weaknesses of Chongqing. There are many advantages that need to be accumulated for a long time. It is almost impossible for Chongqing to catch up in a short time.

So what are the advantages of Chongqing? Which main line should Chongqing firmly grasp in the future population battle? I think there are two points: first, Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle; The second is the east exit of Sichuan Basin. Let's talk about Chongqing economic circle first, which is an intercity economic circle that has risen to the national strategy. Chongqing actually has an advantage in the arrangement of the new Chengdu-Chongqing 350 high-speed rail line to be opened soon. Chengdu-Chongqing Passenger Dedicated Line connects the most densely populated and industrially developed economic hinterland in western Chongqing and central Sichuan. Neijiang alone has a population of more than 3 million. Non-governmental economic exchanges between Neijiang, Longchang, Zizhong and Chongqing are very active. The folk customs and diets of the two places are similar, and they are almost all important industrial towns. Industrial synergy is good, and it is easier to achieve population agglomeration and integration.

The east exit of the Sichuan Basin, namely the Chongqing-Guizhou New Line, has opened the second vein of Rendu, which is the east exit of the Sichuan Basin, and it can be said that it carries the dream of 100 million Sichuanese going east and coming south. In fact, both Chengdu and Chongqing belong to the abandoned children of China's high-speed rail era. It used to be said that the Shu Road was difficult to pass, and so far the eastern coastal cities have not reached the provincial high-speed rail. Originally, the operating standard of Cheng Gui Line was higher, and it could run to 350. But the new Chongqing-Guizhou line is more realistic. After the West Railway Station is put into use in mid-June at 5438+ 10, the position of the high-speed rail hub in western Chongqing will be firmly established.

Let's see how important this line is. In the past, Chongqing's high-speed rail was backward, which had limited radiation to the population of Qiandongnan urban agglomeration. The physical distance from Chongqing to Guiyang is less than 300 kilometers, but the train time is 10, and the number of trains is few, so it is hard for Spring Festival travel rush to get a ticket. Although the transportation is inconvenient, the official and non-governmental economic exchanges between the two places have been very close in history. Chongqing people go to Guizhou for summer vacation, while Guizhou people go to Chongqing for work and shopping. Especially this year, Guizhou has implemented a half-price concession for Chongqing people to go to Guizhou's roads and bridges.

As a future population, Guizhou has a permanent population of over 30 million. After the opening of the Chongqing-Guizhou new line, the talent exchange, economic exchange and cultural exchange that have been hidden for many years will be completely released. Think about it, even if a province with the same population size as Chongqing influxes 10% population, what will it look like, how many young laborers will be added, how much consumption growth will be stimulated, and what will it bring?

Although the overall population attraction of Chongqing is not as attractive as that of Chengdu objectively, it has no radiation to Guizhou, so it can be said that Yunnan-Guizhou urban agglomeration has no competitors. Chengdu takes the Chongqing-Guizhou new line to the east and south, but it is at least one more than Chongqing. Chengdu has no time and looks down on the East. Chengdu's focus is on going north from the Xicheng line, which is also in line with the demands of the target population that Chengdu's property market is attracting at present. It can be said that the population cakes from the east to the south have been brought to Chongqing. According to the known timetable, there are 72 pairs of trains on the Chongqing-Guizhou new line, almost all of which stop at Chongqing West. Even at passing stations, the floating population will increase by tens of millions, not including the comprehensive connection of the national high-speed rail system after the opening of the new Chongqing-Guizhou line, which will realize six access points from Chongqing to Guangzhou, shorten the time from Chongqing to Nanning, Guilin and Foshan in Guangdong by half, and double the number of trains. Developed urban agglomerations in the Pearl River Delta used to be the place where Chongqing's population flowed in. Once the high-speed rail is in operation, the number of people returning home will also surge.

Two important high-speed rail lines can almost lay the foundation for the transportation hub in western Chongqing. This year is also a godsend. The average price of Chongqing property market has improved qualitatively. Through the price guidance of Star Network, Chongqing has attracted wide attention from investors all over the country. On the asset side, it has the core logic of attracting foreign population. However, Chongqing cannot always be the price depression of real estate speculators. Without the guarantee of purchase restriction, Chongqing's housing prices are now almost "streaking": a large number of houses are vacant and cannot be realized, which is easy to produce a run-on effect and lead to systemic risks.

Chongqing must change from a low-lying real estate investment city to a new immigrant city, so that people who buy houses in Chongqing can really live in it, that is, to practice the spirit of the central government that "houses are for living, not for speculation". All high-priced cities have an intrinsic value: strong population radiation: in Beijing, houses are just needed, and houses are far less than people. Buying a house anywhere in Beijing is the dream of migrants, and there is no bubble in housing prices in the core area of Beijing. In Chongqing, however, there are more houses than people, and the foreign resident population is scarce, all of which are consumed by local people, and the real estate speculators are less than 10%. Then the price and value will soon deviate, the bubble will burst, investors will leave, leaving a pile of useless cement waste, which will make the city on the verge of bankruptcy. This is what we don't want to see.

To sum up, on 20 18, Chongqing became a new immigrant city with good conditions and good people. As I have mentioned many times, the revival of Chongqing is particularly difficult. The management of such a mountainous city has no precedent in the world, so we can only cross the river by feeling the stones. Under the leadership of the new Boss group, we are also delighted to see that Chongqing has seen a lot of new weather this year. The blue sky in the main city has been over 300 days, and the air quality has been continuously improved. Conduct internal communication, make up your mind to control traffic congestion, strengthen the management of motor vehicle violations, and drivers know how to be polite to pedestrians. . . . . . Chongqing is becoming more and more livable, more and more open and more inclusive, which are all signs of becoming a new immigrant city. Only by actively welcoming new immigrants with open arms, retaining people with policies, encouraging people with markets and attracting people with culture can Chongqing protect the value of the local property market and gain a favorable position in the competition of new first-tier cities in the future.