What impact will Britain's success in leaving the EU have on China?

What will be the impact of Britain's withdrawal from the EU?

-People's livelihood macro

According to Bloomberg, Britain voted to leave the European Union. What will be the impact of Britain's withdrawal from the EU?

The global capital market will fluctuate violently. first

First of all, this is the first time that all referendums in Europe have changed the status quo in recent years. In the past 05, referendums in France, Netherlands, Scotland, Greece and Denmark in 14 all maintained the status quo, and Britain's withdrawal from the EU exceeded expectations. Second, the public

Before the investment, the volatility of major global assets and exchange rates did not increase significantly, indicating that the market did not fully price the risk of Britain's withdrawal from the EU.

In, there is an obvious underestimation. Today's magnificent market of gold and pound sterling can also prove that the direct and indirect impact of Britain's withdrawal from the EU will continue to ferment, not a simple regional event.

How serious is both losses? A surname; Short for Europe; lucky

The essence of EU integration is the full flow of factors, including the cross-border flow of capital services, trade in goods and the free flow of human capital: in terms of capital flow, the EU accounts for one-fifth of Britain's net foreign direct investment.

Accordingly, 15% of the EU's foreign investment flows to the UK; In terms of commodity trade, Britain's trade deficit with the EU accounts for 50% of its total deficit; In terms of the flow of human capital, non-British EU employees are employed in Britain as a whole.

The proportion of the population has increased year by year, and it has reached 6.8% at present. Britain's withdrawal from the EU has done great harm to both sides.

What is the impact on Britain? short

First, it is impossible to enjoy the benefits of the EU's "single market": the obstacles to the flow of capital, commodities and manpower have increased, and various alternative agreements cannot be reached immediately in the short term, resulting in a vacuum period.

Form obvious resistance to economic growth; Second, the impact of its low global financial center: the financial industry contributed nearly 65,438+00% of Britain's GDP, the foreign exchange trading volume in London market accounted for about 40% of the world, and the global offshore center bond stock was moderate.

London accounts for about 60%. Once leaving the European Union, the new agreement cannot be reached in a short time, and many financial institutions established in London will move back to Europe, which will be a huge blow to the financial industry. Third, the domestic labor market has been hit: the British domestic labor force.

The ratio of population to employment has been declining since 2009, but the number of people from the European Union in Britain is increasing year by year, reaching 265,438+06,000 in 2065,438+06, accounting for 6.8% of the total employment. Therefore, Britain relies heavily on the EU working population to support its economy.

Economy.

What is the impact on large-scale assets? Britain's withdrawal from the EU triggered a decline in global investors' risk appetite. Generally speaking, this is beneficial to safe-haven assets such as the dollar, gold and yen, and is not conducive to risky assets such as stocks, emerging market currencies and crude oil. Due to the short-term loss of Britain's exit from the EU, this is not good for both the pound and the euro.

Impact on the monetary policies of major countries? withdraw

When Europe comes true, global assets will be shocked, risk appetite will decline, liquidity will be tightened, and central banks will be loose, and austerity will be postponed. Central banks should have made liquidity preparations and emergency arrangements for this. From the perspective of the Federal Reserve, the euro

The pound fell sharply+risk aversion pushed the dollar to strengthen, and there was a high probability of raising interest rates during the year; From the perspective of the Bank of Japan, the lack of overweight easing and risk aversion in the past three months have pushed up the yen's strength, and the Bank of Japan may directly intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb the yen's strength, 7

Monthly probability plus code is loose; From the perspective of the European Central Bank, the road to easing is hard to turn back and it is in a quagmire.

What is the impact on the price of crude oil? Depressed by the valuation factors of the appreciation of the US dollar+the decline in global demand caused by Britain's withdrawal from the EU economy+risk aversion = downward pressure on crude oil prices.

What is the impact on the RMB exchange rate? according to

According to the stress tests in different scenarios, in the best scenario, both the pound and the euro fell by 10%, and the dollar index rose to 99. If CFETS remains unchanged, the theoretical maximum depreciation pressure of RMB central parity is -2.53% to.

6.74,; In the worst case, both the pound and the euro fell by 30%, and the dollar index rose to 1 14. If CFETS remains unchanged, the theoretical maximum depreciation pressure of RMB central parity will drop from -7.5% to 7.0. But considering now,

Now it is the exchange rate logic of CFETS and the middle price. The central bank can share the depreciation pressure of the middle price through a small appreciation of CFETS, and its two legs are more under pressure.

Britain's withdrawal from the EU means the rebirth of Europe.

-Private property economics and ethics

Although some people don't want to see Britain leave the EU and regard its possible consequences as a tragedy, this view is meaningless: Britain's exit from the EU is not a tragedy, but a tragic ending, which is not only beneficial to Britain itself, but also may mean the re-emergence of old Europe.

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Britain's withdrawal from the EU will blow the horn of the disintegration of the EU. As far as it is concerned, it is gratifying for British people and enterprises to get rid of the policy of heavy regulation and high protectionism. Only when Britain leaves the EU will it have a chance to re-engage with the EU.

European countries have established real free trade relations with other countries in the world. Even if it is resisted by some EU countries, it will soon break this point one by one by virtue of its free trade relations with other countries.

A cartel alliance that is solid in itself.

As far as Europe is concerned, the process of political integration has been interrupted, and the possibility of a comprehensive disintegration of the alliance has greatly increased. At the same time, it is expected to promote the separation of European nation-states and help the whole of Europe return to the modern pattern of rich small and medium-sized countries. This will only promote institutional competition among regions, thus inhibiting countries from introducing short-sighted and extremely harmful policies.

that

As a result, some welfare countries are under greater pressure and forced to change their course more quickly. The wave of immigrants attracted by "social welfare" pies will also be indirectly suppressed. I want to remind everyone here that relying on welfare policies to attract

Immigrant groups and immigrant groups attracted by liberal policies have completely different natures. The former is unfair even if you give him more benefits, and it is a replica of "farmer and snake". The latter needs everything, just more.

Create a free market environment without fetters and exploitation through one's own labor.

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After that, Britain's withdrawal from the EU itself will not affect free trade and immigration at all, and even the disintegration of the whole EU will not affect it. Fundamentally speaking, free trade and immigration do not need any agreement between any countries at all, as long as each country

Free trade and immigration can be achieved by reducing tariff, trade and immigration barriers to zero. Just like from the late19th century to the first world war, all countries adopted their own easing policies, and the European people did not need any passports at all.

By entering and leaving European countries. Any statement that trade integration needs political integration at the same time is totally unfounded and nonsense.

Europe is mired in political, economic and social crisis. At this critical moment, once Britain successfully leaves the European Union, it will bring back economic prosperity and vitality to Britain and even old Europe, and finally restore its former freedom and glory. Read the original text

Britain's withdrawal from the EU global earthquake! Five major changes will take place in your life.

-CCTV Finance

1. Trade and investment negotiations may encounter challenges.

Considering China's economic scale and international status, even if Britain leaves the EU, it is unlikely that the EU and Britain will raise their tariffs on China. Therefore, Britain's exit from the EU will have limited impact on China's existing trade. Britain has always supported the process of trade liberalization between China and Europe, and the progress of negotiations between China and Europe may be affected by Britain's withdrawal from the EU.

2. RMB depreciation pressure or resurgence

The Fed's interest rate hike will only be late and will not be absent. Britain's withdrawal from the EU may push up the US dollar index. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and Britain withdraws from the European Union, the devaluation pressure of the RMB is likely to re-emerge.

3. The result of referendum has become an important factor affecting the trend of A shares.

Last week, the voice of the Federal Reserve's announcement to suspend interest rate hikes just fell, and the British "Brexit" referendum became an important factor affecting the nerves of global stock markets, including A shares.

As of the close of the 23rd, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.47% and fell by 2,900 points again. Jufeng Investment believes that the British "British Brexit" referendum has warmed up the risk aversion of A shares. But at present, the market is still fluctuating in the range, and the probability of ups and downs is not high.

4. "Britain's withdrawal from the EU" has advantages and disadvantages: the tuition is lower but the price is higher.

Generally speaking, the change of the cost of studying abroad is the result of the interaction of exchange rate, price and employment.

On the one hand, with the success of "Britain leaving the EU", the pound will face greater depreciation pressure, which will naturally lower the exchange rate of the pound against the RMB. For those who study abroad, tuition fees will definitely be reduced a lot.

On the other hand, some experts said, "If Britain succeeds in leaving the EU, its trade partnership with the EU will definitely loosen in the short term". This part of the loss can only be made up by raising the price. Coupled with the unfavorable economic environment, the overall price in Britain will rise, and the living expenses of international students will also rise.

If the pound weakens, it will reduce the cost of traveling to Britain and make shopping more affordable.

Will "Brexit" make it more difficult to apply for a British visa? In fact, China citizens need to apply for a tourist visa separately to travel to the UK, which is different from the Schengen visa commonly used in 26 Schengen countries in Europe. Therefore, "Brexit" will not make it more difficult for China to apply for a visa to Britain.

In addition, if the pound depreciates, it will be beneficial to travel and shop in Britain, and it will cost less RMB to buy the same goods in Britain. As for Haitao, it will be more affordable for individuals to buy goods on local shopping websites through transshipment companies. However, due to the complexity of e-commerce platform channels and pricing, the direct impact geometry is difficult to predict.

Britain's withdrawal from the EU is a foregone conclusion! Where does Li Ka-shing go from here?

The voting result has been decided! The British referendum decided to leave the European Union.

By noon on June 24th, Beijing time, Britain had left the EU and won the referendum with a support rate of 5 1.7%. It would leave the EU, and the pound fell 10%.

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Jiacheng's huge investment covers British electric power, port railway transportation, real estate, oil and gas and other fields. It can be said that he controls the lifeblood industry of the British people's livelihood, and every Englishman lives a "Lee's life". Leave the EU for England.

The economy itself has a direct impact, so how big is the impact on Li Ka-shing? According to various data, 56% of Li Ka-shing's investment is in Europe, of which 37% is in Britain. Li Ka-shing has invested heavily in the UK before and has been

China's Daily Telegraph described it as "buying more than half of Britain". Next, for investors like Li Ka-shing, the future battle may be even more arduous for the adjustment of investment in most parts of the UK.

Since Li Ka-shing invested his assets in the UK, his shares in Changhe Company have fallen by about 30%, while Li Ka-shing's assets are also shrinking. In view of the risk that Britain will leave the EU, the exchange rate of the pound and the euro will fluctuate. Recently, the head of Li Ka-shing's flagship company also pointed out that the drastic exchange rate fluctuation is eroding the profits of its port and retail business.

However, on the one hand, Li Ka-shing hinted in an exclusive interview with the media that he was ready to leave the European Union: "Even if Britain leaves the European Union, it will not be the end of the world.

Excerpted from Baidu netizens, thank you.