Keep going down! Is the population avalanche inevitable in China in the future?

According to statistics, at present, China's fertility rate is maintained at around 1. 18, but it has been artificially revised to 1.8 for good data. Such data is difficult to realize in reality, because it assumes that most adult women in China will get married and have a second child. The reality is that there are a lot of bachelors in China who can't get married, and there are a group of leftover women in the city.

What does the birth rate of 1. 18 mean?

The fertility rate is 1. 18, which means that the domestic population will be halved in each generation, and there will still be a downward trend in the future. In addition, as the number of newborns continues to decrease, there will be fewer and fewer young people, and the proportion of the elderly will increase significantly. According to some so-called experts, it is ideal for China's population to drop to 300 million. But how many young people will be left among the 300 million people by then? How much will the proportion of the elderly population increase?

In recent years, China has fully liberalized the second child policy to encourage China people to have more children. However, the birth rate in China has not increased significantly, and the number of births has been decreasing. Aging and low birth rate have become two major problems that plague social development. Some experts even admit that if this situation is not improved, the population avalanche in China will be inevitable. Then the question is, how can China improve its fertility rate in the future?

Even if the second child policy is fully liberalized at present, it has not stimulated the fertility enthusiasm of Chinese people, let alone the future. To realize the normal generation replacement, the fertility rate must reach 2. 1~2.3, which is undoubtedly impossible under the current situation in China. In addition, it is suggested that China can introduce immigrants to increase the birth rate. In my opinion, introducing immigrants is a road of no return.

Introducing immigrants is simply not feasible!

China is not a country of immigration. Once a large number of immigrants are introduced, it will inevitably arouse the resentment of Chinese people and more serious social problems will arise. Even if it is feasible to introduce immigrants, who can guarantee that the birth rate in China will be improved? In a word, the social problems of China people must be solved by China people, not by so-called immigrants.

So is it feasible to let go of the age limit for marriage? At present, domestic laws stipulate that the age of marriage for men should not be earlier than 22 years old and that for women should not be earlier than 20 years old. Many people suggest that the age can be relaxed to 18, which can improve the marriage rate and fertility rate. However, the real problem is that today's young people don't like to get married too early, and even have a rejection of marriage.

Rewarding childbirth is still an effective method.

In fact, the most effective way to increase the birth rate is to stimulate young people of school age to get married and have children. But now they are overwhelmed by various pressures such as house prices, bride price and work, and it is even harder to get married and have children honestly. The author believes that the measure that can be taken is to reward fertility. For example, if a family gives birth to a second or third child, the government will give certain rewards and maternity subsidies to reduce the pressure on young people to give birth and support.

If China can't keep the birth rate at a normal level, it will not only affect the domestic economic development, but also cause many social problems. Once there is an avalanche of population, there is really no way. What else do you have? Welcome to share the discussion in the message area.