Population Urbanization, Kingsley Davis

Urban demographer in history: the process of increasing the proportion of urban population relative to rural population in the process of human development is called population urbanization.

Urbanization is caused by the migration from rural areas to cities, not by different birth and death rates or other factors.

The process of urbanization in the Middle Ages was slow → 1800 accelerated → the industrial revolution triggered the rapid growth of urban population.

Human urbanization develops with a flat S-shaped curve;

Slow development in pre-industrial era → rapid growth in industrialized cities → gradual stability.

Northwest Europe, which emerged in the urbanized society, is not the region that produced big cities in history. Perhaps it is the non-urban characteristics of these societies that have completely stripped off the parasitism of cities and towns, thus creating a brand-new social foundation and revolutionizing urbanization.

Why are there urban and rural immigrants? With the progress of technology and the improvement of human productivity, plus some other factors, the return rate of densely populated cities has become higher. Land is the main tool of agricultural production, and the population engaged in agricultural production is very scattered; On the contrary, for manufacturing, commerce and services, land is just a place.

Under what circumstances will the urbanization process end? The appearance of automobiles and electricity, the reduction of working days and time have eliminated the disadvantages of living in rural areas, and the expansion of urban scale has aggravated the difficulties of life. In the later period of this process, the urbanization of industrialized countries tends to stop, and the urban population of developed countries is becoming more and more rural, that is, the living density is relatively low, so that they can enjoy the facilities of urban life without having to bear the congestion of urban life in the past.

Some people will take it for granted that urbanization in developing countries is a phenomenon in the early stage of economic development, but this is wrong. Urbanization in developing countries is by no means repeating history.

Compared with yesterday's industrialized countries, the absolute difference of urban population in developing countries today is more obvious than the relative difference of urban population, because the growth of these countries is not from the migration from rural areas to cities as before, but from the growth of the total population.

Poor developing countries are faced with a dilemma. If they don't emigrate from the countryside in large numbers, they will flow to a large number of unemployed farmers. If they increase the number of rural immigrants, the super-high growth of cities will also be a disaster.

Thousands of homeless people in many cities build temporary houses on land that does not belong to them. Although called by different names, these illegal residents can be found everywhere in big cities in poor countries.

At present, the region with the fastest population growth in the world has moved from developed countries to backward countries, but it is almost impossible for backward countries to provide even enough urban services to meet the needs of a large number of newborn babies and agricultural immigrants, let alone expand agricultural land and investment in time to meet the growth of rural population. This problem is not brought about by urbanization, but by population growth.

The best expression of people's attitude towards megacities is trying to escape from them. The bigger the city, the greater the space cost and the higher the living cost, and the more people are willing to pay for the low-density life. However, with the expansion and connection of urban areas, people are likely to gradually be unable to afford the life in low-density areas.