Why will 2050 be a critical moment for mankind?

Jared diamond, the author of Guns, Germs and Steel and The Third Chimpanzee, is regarded as a "great god" in biology and structural anthropology.

Why will 2050 be a critical moment for mankind?

Jared diamond, the author of Guns, Germs and Steel and The Third Chimpanzee, is regarded as a "great god" in biology and structural anthropology. His works have been recommended by famous investors such as Bill Gates and Yang Dong, and are regarded as classics by many investors. Behind this, what supports this series of grand themes is Diamond's unique experience and perspective.

Author | Lin Xiaxi Xi

Editor Liu Xiaoying

Jared Diamond (hereinafter referred to as Diamond) is a famous geographer, evolutionary biologist, physiologist and writer with a series of works, such as Guns, Germs and Steel, The Third Chimpanzee and Drastic Change. He is also a member of the American Academy of Arts, the National Academy of Sciences and the American Philosophical Association.

His works are not only regarded as "great gods" in biology and anthropology, but also regarded as required reading classics in the investment circle because of the recommendation of famous investors such as Bill Gates and Yang Dong and the unique perspective of interpreting the fate of human society.

Reading his book makes people feel that this is a long conversation.

He likes to start his description by asking questions. For example, Guns, Germs and Steel, published by 1997, has returned to the public's sight under the epidemic, and the beginning of the book is a question put forward by a political figure in New Guinea and his friend Yali-"Why do white people make so many goods and then transport them here? Why didn't we black people do anything? "

The questions arising from this are near or far, big or small, including "Why did the British occupy America and not people from other places?" "What role did bacteria play in the historical changes?" "Why can Ouyama be domesticated, but African zebras can't?" "Why does microbial evolution have to kill people?"

Diamond answered these questions skillfully, which also gave us a chance to think and understand these questions with him when we opened the book. This is something that most of us can't achieve all our lives by our own efforts.

The birth of Diamond's twin sons is very important for becoming a non-fiction writer, because like every parent, he wants his children to live in a better world.

June 5438 +2022 10, blog × Mars business and diamond dialogue. Professor Diamond, 85, still emphasizes the importance of peace, environmental protection and improving inequality, and still maintains his love for life and beautiful expectations for the future world.

0 1, from the third chimpanzee to the great change

The Third Chimpanzee, published in 199 1, is Diamond's first book for the public, discussing why human beings have become so different from other animals in such a short time.

If you have read other books written by Diamond, you should also agree that The Third Chimpanzee is the most interesting one, which is also the favorite book of Diamond's mother.

The unforgettable little questions in the book include "Why do women have menopause?" "Why do men cheat?" "Why can't people quit smoking, drinking and giving up drugs?" "How will humans choose their spouses?" "Why can crabs grow new ones when their feet are broken, but humans can't?" These problems seem to be finely divided, but most of them hit our "itch" well.

In order to solve these problems, Diamond led us to explore a series of natural selection, species game and gene evolution in the process of human evolution with sufficient logical and scientific basis.

In the communication with Diamond, we also discussed the contradictory individuals of human beings. In Diamond's view, the development of civilization has not eliminated all our problems. We have overcome the old problem of "dying of smallpox", but we still need to face new problems such as a huge and complicated society.

The beauty is that when we understand the evolution process and look at people or things in real life, we will unconsciously feel a sense of substitution, sincerely sigh "so that's it" and experience a spiritual enlightenment.

At present, Guns, Germs and Steel, written by Diamond in 1997, has once again returned to public view, which is also his second book for the public.

Compared with the first book, Guns, Germs and Steel clearly describes a more grand proposition, from the origin of agricultural civilization in the two river basins to modern society, trying to answer the questions raised by Yali in New Guinea. It requires the author to release more interdisciplinary knowledge reserves, and also requires readers to have more patience, digest and enjoy lectures.

Taking 10,000 years as a span and the influence of geographical environment as an important perspective, from "proximate cause" to "remote cause", the conclusion of Diamond's book can be summarized as follows: the different historical trajectories of human society on different continents are due to the different natural environment of each continent, including the differences of wild animal species suitable for domestication, as well as the differences of continental axis and isolation degree.

"What role did bacteria play in the evolution of human society?" This problem has become the key to the book's popularity again after the epidemic. There are indeed many "unexpected" descriptions of germs in the book.

In fact, the "human killers" in modern history include smallpox, influenza, tuberculosis, malaria and so on. , all evolved from animal diseases, and also formed an "invisible hand" of today's global human social pattern.

For example, when Columbus discovered the New World in 1492, the Spanish occupation of America not only killed people, but also brought germs, which became the cause of more native American deaths. For example, Pizarro landed in Peru in 153 1 with 168 people to conquer millions of local people, not all because of his wit and courage, but more importantly, the smallpox virus that entered the Inca Empire earlier, which plunged this place into civil war and neglected its defense.

In the dialogue with Diamond, he once again gave a new view about germs. Compared with death, the main impact of this epidemic is that, for the first time in world history, it faces a global problem that requires a global solution.

If reading Guns, Germs and Steel is like a trip, then the conclusion that the historical trajectory of human society is determined by the natural environment is obviously only the last few frames of the scenery along the way. The better part should be that everyone is different.

For example, reappearing the history of germs makes many people look at the impact of the current epidemic from a broader and farther perspective; For me, what is equally thought-provoking is a decision made in 8500 BC to urge the residents of the fertile crescent zone to change from hunting and gathering to farming.

Because this can actually be regarded as the root of all the inequalities in today's human society, and from Diamond's point of view, human beings, as farmers, are generally inferior to the residents who used to hunt and gather for a living, regardless of health, longevity or leisure time.

In addition to rich knowledge reserves and valuable experience in the primitive tribal life in New Guinea, another important reason why Diamond's Guns, Germs and Steel is highly praised by so many readers is that it is a non-racial monograph, which allows readers of different colors and countries to calmly look at and understand the world from the same perspective.

Later, Diamond wrote "Collapse" in 2005, discussing why some societies have implemented stupid policies and are heading for self-collapse, while others have been prosperous for hundreds of years.

Among them, the demise of Mayan civilization, the decline of Vikings and the collapse of Polynesian society not only made us sincerely lament the culture and sites it once created, but also provided us with the most realistic experience and lessons under disastrous decision-making and gave us bloody warnings.

Later, in The World The Day Before Yesterday (written on 20 12), Why Some Countries Are Rich and Some Countries Are Poor (written on 20 14) and Drastic Changes (written on 20 19), we can see that Diamond turned his attention more and more from the evolutionary history of human society to the rise and fall of the country.

How to understand such a change? Maybe we can find the answer from Diamond's experience.

02, change

Being able to write such a series of works spanning different grand themes is inseparable from Diamond's unique experience.

Diamond was born in Boston, the northeastern United States, 1937, and grew up in a family that brought him unlimited gains.

His father was born in Russia and later immigrated to the United States with his parents. Grandparents were born in Eastern Europe, immigrated to the United States in the 1980s from 65438 to 2009, and then gave birth to Diamond's mother. His father-in-law and mother-in-law immigrated to the United States from Poland in the early days, and then gave birth to his wife Mary.

Family members come from different countries, even different continents, which gives Diamond such an initial opportunity to experience the changes of human trajectory on the earth. Because his mother is a linguist, Diamond began to study at the age of 3, and by the age of 16, he had studied English, Latin and German one after another. Because his father was a doctor, he was determined to be a doctor since he was a child, and later he was admitted to Harvard University.

By this time, we can clearly see the influence of family on Diamond, but in the later life track, more and more personal interests and experiences seem to have a deeper impact on him, many of which are experiences that most people who are busy with life will never have.

For example, when he was in the third year of high school, he suddenly realized that what he really wanted to do was science, so he turned to study for a doctorate in physiology, an experimental science that studied the body mechanism of human beings and other animals, and came to Cambridge University in England.

Living in Europe gave him the opportunity to meet friends who had very different childhood from himself-they experienced bombs falling from the sky during World War II, some lost their education opportunities, and some saw people around them die because of the war.

After that, Diamond and his friends organized a trip to New Guinea, a tropical island in northern Australia, because he likes watching birds. In his words, this trip was of decisive significance to his life, and later he went to New Guinea 3 1 time in succession.

To some extent, New Guinea "opened up" Diamond-he watched glaciers on the mountain 5000 meters above sea level near the equator, enjoyed the most fascinating birds in history on the island, shuttled between thousands of different tribes and languages, experienced one of the few traditional lifestyles in the world, and lived a life of stone tools, no words and no central government.

Since then, Diamond has devoted his energy to writing covering physiology, ornithology, geography, history, anthropology and other fields, and gradually changed from writing academic research papers to writing short articles and books for the public.

There are two key points that eventually prompted him to write this series of books. First, in the 1980s, the MacArthur Foundation called Diamond and offered him a five-year bonus to help him do whatever he wanted.

After this call, Diamond was both happy and depressed, because he realized that his previous life had not brought his potential into full play and brought more important things to the world.

Another reason is that the twin son of Diamond and his wife Mary was born in 1987.

Before that, as a person born in 1937, Diamond didn't care much about what would happen on the earth in 2050, just as we might not care much about what the land under our feet would look like after 100. But the birth of the child changed Diamond's concern about the future world, because like every parent, he wanted his children to live in a better world.

This may be why Diamond is not satisfied with simply presenting the past, but through the third chimpanzee, guns, germs and steel. Where is his sexual interest? After showing the wonders of human and social changes, he began to pay more attention to the future. In "Collapse", he listed famous social collapse cases in history, drew the power of neglected traditional society from the world the day before yesterday, and deeply discussed the topic of national rise and fall and national crisis on the topic of what some countries are rich, poor and drastic changes.

Diamond, who is 85 years old, is still active in the public eye, and said in many public interviews and dialogues that "compared with guns, germs and steel, global climate change, resource depletion and nuclear weapons are becoming more serious crises facing mankind".

He called for environmental protection, peace and improvement of social inequality. This is a wise man who constantly transmits his experience and wisdom to the outside world in his own way. In the communication with us, Diamond said, "If we can adopt sustainable policies as soon as possible, human society will prosper and develop in the infinite future, and we don't need to send elon musk to Mars".

This is reminiscent of a description of the "old man" written by Diamond in The Third Chimpanzee-"1976, when I visited Lonnell Island in Solomon Islands, many islanders told me which wild fruits were delicious, but only one old man could tell me which wild fruits could be eaten in case of emergency. When he was young (around 1905), a hurricane hit, and the agricultural garden on the island was completely destroyed, and the islanders almost starved to death. Old people remember the wild fruits that kept them alive. Before the invention of writing, people like him could influence the survival of the whole society. "

Apart from grand topics, he is also an old man full of enthusiasm for life. Diamond told us that for an 85-year-old, his remaining time is not enough to satisfy his interests, including making friends, enjoying great music, observing birds, understanding history and practicing speaking many languages.

Just as New Guinea once "opened" a spiritual realm of diamonds, diamonds are also creating opportunities for readers who have never met before to be "opened" one after another, and we just need to open the book.

03. Dialogue Diamond

In addition to traveling in Diamond's book, we also have the opportunity to have an overseas dialogue with Professor Diamond. The following is a record of questions and answers.

Q 1: Although you said not long ago that the biggest crisis in the world at present is nuclear threat, climate change, resource depletion and social inequality, it is obvious that the war, disease and advanced tools described in Guns, Germs and Steel are still important topics we are facing today. It seems that the problems we have to solve have not been eliminated with the development of civilization, but have accumulated more and more. How to treat this "self-reflection" feature in the development of human society? Is this related to the self-destructive behaviors described by the third chimpanzee, such as smoking, drinking and taking drugs?

Diamond: Indeed, the development of civilization has not eliminated all our problems. We have overcome some old problems, such as the risk of dying of smallpox, but we have also encountered new problems: not only new diseases such as the current epidemic, but also problems in large and complex societies. Humans always have problems. One problem that Neanderthals faced was the risk of being killed by other Neanderthals and killing each other. We have solved this problem to a great extent. Today, when I was walking in the street, I didn't worry about the risk of being killed, roasted or eaten. Instead, I am worried about the risk of being hit by a car.

The year 2050 seems to be a critical moment. You think the tropical rain forest may disappear in 2050, and many problems facing the world will reach the critical point at that time. Hawking predicted that World War III would break out in 2050, and Musk even said that 1 10,000 people would be sent to Mars before 2050. How do you calculate this time in 2050? And do you think the process of environmental protection that we are working on now can postpone this time?

Diamond: In my book Collapse, I discussed all the problems facing mankind today, such as the depletion of fisheries, forests and other basic resources on which we depend. According to the current consumption rate of world fisheries and forests, the consumption of resources will become irreversible in the next few decades, that is, around 2050. This means that we must solve the problem of resource management in the next few decades, which is bad news. The good news is that if we can adopt sustainable policies as soon as possible, human society will be able to prosper in the infinite future, and we don't need to send Elon Musk to Mars.

Q3: In Guns, Germs and Steel, you said that human killers in modern history include smallpox, influenza, tuberculosis, malaria, measles and cholera, which are all diseases evolved from animal diseases. These diseases are "killers" with high mortality and infectivity. In contrast, the epidemic that is still spreading around the world is also highly contagious and the mortality rate is relatively weak. So what do you think is the challenge and impact of this epidemic on human beings?

Diamond: The biggest impact of the current epidemic is not directly leading to the death of the population. On the contrary, the main impact of the epidemic is that, for the first time in world history, it faces a global problem that requires a global solution. Not long ago, before the jet plane appeared, the world was not globalized: the problem may still be localized. Now, this is no longer the case. Only when every country can deal with COVID-19 virus safely can the world get rid of it. In our globalized world, this epidemic, like other global problems, needs a global solution. This is an important lesson we have learned from the current epidemic.

Q4: In the topic of environmental improvement and nuclear war, you always emphasize global cooperation. However, the existing gap between developed countries, developing countries and backward countries is obviously an unavoidable reality. Do you think there is any cognitive premise for global cooperation under the premise of unbalanced development of all parties?

Diamonds: The cognitive premise of promoting global cooperation between developed and backward countries, rich and poor countries is simple: self-interest! Developed countries are no longer immune to the problems brought by backward countries. In backward countries with insufficient funds for public health services, dangerous diseases such as Ebola, monkeypox and AIDS continue to develop, and other dangerous diseases such as dengue fever and polio persist. When people travel by air, diseases can spread from one country to any other country, including from poor countries to rich countries. Therefore, the reasons why developed countries help backward countries are not only generous and noble, but also self-interested reasons why rich countries help themselves by helping poor countries.

Q5: Many people in this society are anxious about their age, but you just celebrated your 85th birthday last month and are still active in the field of writing, trying to make the future of the world better. How can you have such lasting motivation? What advice do you have for readers with age anxiety?

Diamond: I have lasting motivation because life is so interesting. Now I am 85 years old, and the time left is not enough to satisfy all my interests. These interests include making friends, listening to great music, observing birds, learning about history and practicing speaking many languages. This gives me lasting motivation.

Q6: From your book, it can be seen that the professional ability and experience accumulated in the fields of bird research, physiological research and geographical research are the basis for you to see the world from more perspectives and create, but it is not easy for most people to settle down in one field. Do you prefer to focus on one field or dare to try different fields?

Diamond:

Some people, like me, like the perspective gained by devoting themselves to many fields, while others like the perspective gained by focusing on one field. I have a friend who is a biochemist. He is a world-class expert on β -galactosidase. He began to study β -galactosidase at the age of 24. My other teacher in the university is a great organic chemist, who is only interested in organic chemistry. He changed his living room into an organic chemistry library and named his daughter Crystal, so that when he saw her, he could think of organic chemistry. He never goes to the gym to exercise, because it will take up the time of studying organic chemistry. He died in his sixties, partly because he never went to the gym. But by the time of his death, he had won two Nobel Prizes and had a great influence in the field of organic chemistry.