Niu Dao said: How can we live a good life?

In your new book How to Live a Good Life, you repeatedly mentioned "returning to common sense". So, in your opinion, what "common sense" is what people should know most?

Niu Dao: Economics is a behavioral science that studies people's economic life. Macroeconomics covers a wide range, so it is obviously unrealistic to ask everyone to study economics. However, there are so many books on economics in the market that it is difficult to find a simple reader and it is not convenient to popularize the basic knowledge of economics.

In the real society, people don't manage money, inflation is there, the currency depreciates sharply, and hard-earned money is lost in vain. Because the capital market is complex and changeable, how to analyze the trend of the capital market, what economic phenomena are worthy of attention, how to allocate scarce resources between private and family, and where are the resources for reference? It's all problems. Therefore, in the huge economic theory system, the basic common sense that spans the main economic theory categories focuses on macroeconomic data analysis. If you understand these data and learn to analyze them, there will be no big directional errors in the market.

The six data I have selected are both global and China's. These data are regularly published by governments, specialized agencies, relevant United Nations agencies and non-governmental organizations, which contain huge business opportunities and are also the focus of macroeconomic attention. A thorough understanding of the data will prompt many people to see the essence through market phenomena and clarify their investment ideas.

The reason why I let everyone return to common sense is because the market has risen and fallen, and there is no behavior of asset price increase. Assets that often soar will eventually plummet.

Reporter: Money is worthless. What shall we do? What do you suggest if we invest?

Niu Dao: Regarding currency, there is no central bank like China in the world that can issue currency at will. How to end it now? I haven't read the score yet. It seems to be tightening the currency, but it actually opens the floodgates. In this way, a very strange economic phenomenon will appear in China in the future. Inflation is still serious, the currency is still depreciating, and the momentum of economic growth has disappeared. This phenomenon is neither inflation nor deflation, which is called stagflation in economics. This is a terrible thing and will bring many social problems.

At present, it is almost impossible to preserve the value of domestic private wealth, and the prices of all assets are at a high level. This shows that there is a powerful force monopolizing the market, driving up prices and plundering the wealth of the people. The eternal law of the capital market is the 28 th law, which really makes money.

Some people are in the minority.

The cost of doing business is high and the probability of bankruptcy is high; The environment for starting a business is getting worse every year, and the cost is getting higher every year. All these indicate that China's economy will have a big problem. Now the risk of investing in RMB assets is greater than the income. Therefore, I propose that 20 13 should build a global position and let everyone pay attention to the global capital market. Opportunities for the United States and Europe have come.

Without a major economic transformation, China will soon experience a Great Depression. High housing prices and high inflation are natural enemies of economic growth. If it is not controlled, China's economy will collapse. The capital market is very dangerous.

Niu Dao: The theory of "house prices rising for 10,000 years" is very popular. What do you think of this argument?

Niu Dao: How is that possible? No assets can go up in ten thousand years. The faster it rises, the worse it falls, which is the iron law of the capital market. not to mention

What about real estate, gold, crude oil and all precious metals? As long as China buys more goods in RMB, it will drop sharply one day.

If RMB is printed and distributed at will, its real value in the world is equivalent to waste paper. The world can't find a currency that depreciates so quickly, and not many people are optimistic. The internationalization of RMB is just a joke. The housing price bubble in China is the funniest joke in the world than the internationalization of RMB. What's more ridiculous? These officials and developers joined hands with the media to speculate on housing prices. The whole property market is full of monopoly, fraud, looting, violence and profiteering. People will not stop until they have absorbed all their hard-earned money. Do you think it will last?

Reporter: Will the real estate bubble burst this year? If it is shattered, how to return to the normal real estate market and "reasonably return to housing prices"?

Broadsword: The housing price bubble in China will burst as soon as it is knocked, and the book wealth will disappear. How much can reinforced concrete be worth? What is the function of residence? Apart from Hong Kong, what other countries and regions in the world speculate on real estate on such a large scale? The funniest thing happened in China. The economy in many places is in chaos. What did they say?

Reporter: Some people say that this year is "the year of chicken ribs in China stock market". How do you interpret the trend of China stock market this year?

Niu Dao: The high housing prices in China have absorbed the blood and sweat of three generations of ordinary urban and rural residents. What promotes China's economic transformation, stimulates domestic demand and guarantees people's livelihood has become the biggest lie in the global economy. House prices have not plummeted. What can ordinary people do to expand domestic demand? Without domestic demand, there is no consumption. How to develop production without consumption? How to improve the stock market? When house prices fall to the end, the stock market will turn bullish.

Such a big bubble burst, where is it so fun?

Reporter: You once said that China's era was "an era of stressing people's wealth", but now there seems to be no discussion about the social basis of "people's wealth"?

Niu Dao: First of all, the whole system construction is far behind the economic growth. What should be done is not done, and what should not be done is done in advance. The mentality of earning a handful of money and leaving is very serious, which leads to short-term behavior. Such government behavior has aroused deep fear and anxiety of urban and rural residents, which is unpredictable. Nowadays, the pressure of maintaining stability is increasing, and when it can't be suppressed, it will be out of control.

The currency is unstable, the people are unstable, and the world is in chaos. The social foundation of people's prosperity is based on a good social system. If there is something wrong with the system, the economic problems will be difficult to deal with. However, in times of difficulty, our comrades should see light and hope, and have the courage and confidence to overcome problems. We should put the issue of people's wealth on the agenda and do our job well.

Reporter: What impact does the euro crisis have on emerging economies such as China?

Niu Dao: It has a certain impact on China's import and export trade, but it has little impact on the RMB exchange rate. In the capital market, the phenomenon of euro returning to the mainland is very serious. In June this year, European and American currencies fought hard, and the outcome has been seen. For China, don't get involved in European affairs in a hurry, and let the brothers settle accounts.

Reporter: The post-80s generation is a "year of standing", but when it is not established, as you said, "the post-80s generation collectively fell". How can they live a "good life"?

Niu Dao: Living in a country with high inflation, no one is happy. Not only the post-80s, but also the post-90s have no hope. If house prices do not fall, the bubble will not burst and inflation will not be contained. If there are no accidents, that is to say, the central bank will stop printing money crazily, house prices will fall back on their own, inflation will be controlled, and many asset prices will fall back.

Niudao: 20 12

The year 2008 is the legendary year of doomsday and also the year of prophecy. If you predict, what will happen and affect the lives of ordinary people?

Great knife: 20 12 three black swans in the global capital market.

The first is that the US dollar index will attack 85 points. To sum up, the effect of the Fed's policy of keeping interest rates low is very limited. It is only the short-term speculation in the capital market that cannot stop the rapid rise of the US dollar index. At present, the dollar will return to above 80 points after several trading days, and will probably rise to 85 points in the next six months or so.

The second is the progress in the Strait of Hormuz. This is the second black swan that the capital market should pay special attention to this year. At present, the progress of the incident is still unclear, and I hope it can develop in a good direction. Iranian people are very friendly to tourists and businessmen in China. PetroChina has also invested heavily in Iran, which will affect China's crude oil supply. At the same time, it will also affect the trend of China A-share energy and coal sectors.

The third is the European debt problem. Because the final solution has not yet been decided, at present, the market is paying close attention. I will discuss the European debt problem in detail.

As far as China's economy is concerned, we should pay close attention to the trend of RMB. If the RMB floats freely in the market, then the foreign exchange market will bring investment opportunities, and there will be a market for China B shares.

Reporter: Is there a middle class in China? What kind of "conditions" can be regarded as belonging to the middle class?

Niu Dao: The middle class has always been China's dream. The middle class should not only have certain wealth, but also have good quality, advanced thinking, wise thinking and rich knowledge, and always lead the trend of life and walk in the forefront of fashion. It can't exist in China. The rich in China are basically nouveau riche, or rich second generation. These people are either pigs or parasites. Rich people with real education have emigrated for a long time. Who wants to stay in China? Interesting thing. How did the middle class come into being?

Reporter: Shi Hanbing said in the preface of the new book that your "Three Musketeers" appeal for housing and people's livelihood has aroused people's concern, "but few people know the bitterness and hardships behind it". Tell me about your "bitterness and difficulty"? Through hard work, what effects have you finally achieved?

Cow guide: do what you can, and persevere through disasters. As for the effect, social evaluation is needed.