How to quickly judge whether a house is worth buying? Practical strategy

Recently, many friends asked how to buy a house this year. In order to help you, I am happy to share my years of experience. Today, I mainly write the logic of house appreciation with different total prices, and how to quickly judge whether a house is worth buying. Please read it patiently and forward it to your relatives and friends. Thank you very much.

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Price is a dynamic iceberg.

Which suite must I earn? This is actually a good question worth thousands of dollars. This includes our estimation and potential judgment of real estate prices.

To understand this problem, we must explore the formation mechanism of price from the root.

Do you know what the price is? How is it formed?

First, let's look at a few examples:

For any commodity, the enterprise has no pricing power, only pricing power. If the target price is high, it will not be sold, and if it is low, it will suffer.

Think about it, you sell second-hand houses, how much can you decide for yourself? Not exactly. How much you can sell this suite is determined by the market supply and demand.

Our salary is not determined by ourselves or the company, but by the supply and demand of the whole labor market.

Most of the education received since childhood is the political economy of Keynesian school. The book tells you that value determines price, and price fluctuates around value.

When I grow up, many people find that this is a fallacy!

Because there is no concept of "value" in serious economics, any price is the final reflection of the relationship between supply and demand.

The same bottle of mineral water can only be sold for a few dollars in the city, but it can be sold very expensive at the peak of Huashan Mountain in Shaanxi Province. Due to the different supply and demand, the price of the same bottle of water will vary greatly.

The production cost of a factory's products is very high, but the price of the products is not what they can decide, but how many competitors are fighting price wars in this market. Your high cost does not mean that you can sell at a high price, but it means that you may lose money and eventually be eliminated.

How much a person can sell a sweet potato is not determined by how hard he works, but by how many people are selling sweet potatoes in this vegetable market that day.

Similarly, the price of a house is not determined by the owner, nor by the government, nor by the developer, but by the relationship between supply and demand in the whole market.

Therefore, whether a suite is worth buying depends on whether the supply and demand relationship behind it is beneficial to you. If people from cities continue to enter this field, the demand will be endless. Even if the current price is higher, it is still worth buying, because it will continue to rise. You just need to buy as soon as possible, adapt to the changes in demand, and make money sooner or later.

In the field of investment, no one can control the direction of the trend. The only thing we can do is to abide by it.

After understanding this truth, let's discuss another question: Is it easier for the house price to rise from 1.5 million to 30,000, or from 30,000 to 60,000?

Most people may find it easy to rise from 1.5 million to 30 thousand.

In fact, this is not a multiple-choice question, but a solution.

The real difference between the two is that it has gone up and can it be held.

1.5 million has risen to 30,000, but it can't stay. Look at Zengcheng in Guangzhou, Erdos in Inner Mongolia and Yanjiao in Hebei. This round of prices is almost halved.

However, where the number of people has increased from 30,000 to 60,000, it has maintained a steady growth. Investment should not only pursue growth, but also guard against risks, and more importantly, pursue certain returns.

So, if you ask me: Is it easier for the house price to rise from 1.5 million to 30,000 or from 30,000 to 60,000?

I will ask: Is it easier for the house price to fall from 30,000 to 1.5 million, or from 60,000 to 30,000? I think clearly about this, and I believe everyone will have an answer.

After the house price goes up, it will not be fixed there all the time. This is an ever-changing iceberg. It is likely that after rising, the iceberg will begin to melt, and the price will fall after a while.

Therefore, when buying a house, it is not comprehensive to consider only which one is going up and which one is going down.

Because buying and selling houses is not like stocks. If you buy it today, you can sell it tomorrow. When the house falls, except for professional investors, most people have no time to escape, so resisting falling is the first consideration for ordinary people.

Most people's understanding of the price is very elementary, so it is inevitable to take many detours when buying a house.

Personally, I don't like risky investment products. I only buy products with high certainty.

02

Real estate price system and its rising logic

According to the total transaction price of a city real estate, it can be roughly divided into the following categories:

1, loading plate

2, diaosi plate

3. Only one plate is needed

4. Just changed the plate

5, improve the disk

6. Fake building

7. A real mansion

8. Top luxury house

Take Chengdu as an example, the median transaction price of the city is 2 million. If the median transaction price is more than 2 times, it belongs to the scope of luxury houses, that is, 4 million houses belong to the scope of luxury houses in Chengdu, and luxury houses are divided into fake luxury houses, real luxury houses and top luxury houses. Of course, this 4 million house has just entered the luxury range, strictly speaking, it belongs to a fake luxury house, and more than 6 million is a real luxury house.

The total transaction price below the median belongs to the type of 1-3, the type of 1-2 times the median belongs to the type of 4-5, and the type of 6-8 is more than 2 times the median. Similarly, other cities can also transfer and use them appropriately.

The short-term appreciation and liquidity of the above eight houses with different total prices cannot be combined at the same time. The turnover of low-priced 1-4 earned has increased rapidly, and the appreciation must be replaced as soon as possible, and the absolute value of 5-8 earned. Rich people don't just seek to increase, what they want is the total wealth and preservation. 1 10,000 only needs to double the price to earn 65438+. Only a 20% increase is enough to beat the demand, so people with more funds and less places are suitable to invest in 5-8 types and hold them for a long time to maximize the absolute income.

The following analyzes the changes of housing supply and demand in different total price stages and their purchase logic one by one:

Upper carton

In the past, people regarded buying a house as entering the fast lane of asset appreciation, so buying a house is also called "getting on the bus", and getting on the license plate is the kind of house with low total price.

This kind of house has a characteristic: it is highly mobile and its price is rising almost every year. Why? Because in a city, after a year, someone can always save some money and buy such a house with a low total price. With the increase of boarding price, the bottom price of the whole city is also rising. In other words, last year it was assumed that the cheapest house in this city was 1 10,000, and next year it will be 1 1 10,000.

So who will buy it? Yes, most of them are newcomers. They don't have a house or much savings in the city, so they will consider getting on the bus. After the original owner sold the house to the new immigrants, they went to buy a first-class "diaosi dish". Therefore, we often see many people selling 6.5438+0000 houses, making money through appreciation, and then buying 2 million houses, selling 2 million houses and buying 4 million houses. ...

Purchasing power is also changing upward layer by layer, and finally some people can easily afford a house of 10 million.

Those liberal arts students on the Internet always like to say that there are100000 houses in this city. Who can afford office workers? It will definitely fall.

In fact, they don't know that most people who buy100000 property will buy100000 because they have sold 7 million houses. In the same way, people who have been pushing back and can afford 7 million are selling 5 million houses; People who can afford 5 million are because they have sold 3 million houses.

Pushing back until the finish line is the cheapest way to get on the bus. At this time, everyone will find that the purchasing power of the property market is actually a long food chain. If one link is removed for a long time, the relationship between supply and demand of the whole chain will be destroyed, and the purchasing power will be gradually exhausted, resulting in very inactive transaction replacement in this city and weak housing price increase.

This is also why Beijing and Shanghai, where the speed of population introduction has slowed down, have not seen a big increase in house prices in recent years, even though the cities have abundant funds and good economies. Because there are fewer new sites in these cities, no one buys the last one, and the last one can't be sold, the substitution behind it will be insufficient, and it will be difficult for the whole city to go up.

The bad place to get on the bus is for self-occupation, which is difficult for many people to accept. Because of its small area and general location, many people will sell it in a few years. The advantage of getting on the bus is that there is a certain increase in profits, and few prices fall back. As a springboard for tramps, it can still be considered.

Diaosi disc

After getting on the bus, save a little money and consider changing the next set. If they have less money, they can only choose diaosi dish. The so-called diaosi dish is that this kind of apartment is slightly better than boarding dishes, but it can't meet the living conditions of just-needed dishes. It is either old, small in area, common in location, or even has multiple defects at the same time.

The advantage of diaosi cuisine is that when the budget is insufficient, it at least provides a foothold for the family, allowing people to work with peace of mind for several years, waiting for the rise and then taking its place. However, because it is in an embarrassing situation, the poor can't afford it, and they need a little money and disdain it, so its increase is generally suppressed.

Just need a plate.

As the name implies, the just-needed plate is a real estate that meets people's rigid needs. The primary requirement of ordinary people's life is that the commuting time to work should not be too long.

Therefore, the just-needed disk is generally inseparable from subway traffic, and many properties along the suburban subway belong to this category.

People's adaptability to area is far greater than their adaptability to time, so they only need to live in a small area, give priority to transportation and commuting time, and try to be close to the place where they go to work.

If he lives far away, working three hours a day is three hours, and it is almost impossible to compress and adjust. But if the budget remains the same, he can save time at work, renovate the house, add more cabinets and bunk beds, and get through the squeeze.

So, you just need a disk, but you actually buy commuting time. People are paying for their time. As long as they live near and have convenient transportation, they will be satisfied.

Because the just-needed market is facing the mainstream working class in this city, the just-needed market will generally outperform the broader market in the year with a large increase, which is what we commonly call "three years without rising, three years to eat".

Just changed the plate.

The so-called just-needed replacement is better than just-needed replacement, but it is not enough to upgrade the required real estate. This kind of property has a good increase because it takes into account both self-occupation and investment, and it is also a property that mainstream people can reach.

In the case of convenient transportation, the newly changed sector has several advantages over the just-needed sector, that is, in addition to high-quality transportation, it also has good lots and commercial facilities, which can basically meet the needs of daily life.

Improved disk

The so-called improvement, first of all, you must have at least one suite, because the living conditions can not meet the needs of life, so you need to change and improve. Therefore, in the property market, the main force of replacement is to improve the demand of customers. They generally achieve the goal of improvement by selling one and buying another. However, in the year when the property market is rising, it is the easiest to step on the air. Last year, a friend in Shenzhen sold his house and was going to buy one. As a result, the market suddenly rose, and their money could not be bought in an instant. Therefore, to buy an improvement plan, you must choose your new house in advance, make a golden lock on the price, and then agree to pay a down payment in three or four months, and then sell the house you live in within two months to bridge the time difference and not step on the market.

Fake mansion, real mansion, top mansion

A mansion, as its name implies, is the house of a local tyrant. The purchasing power distribution of a city is similar to a pyramid. The higher the total house price, the fewer people can afford it, that is, the fewer potential customers, so the mobility of luxury homes will be greatly reduced accordingly.

Selling may take three months, and luxury houses may take more than half a year. But for people with sufficient funds and few places to buy a house, luxury houses still have investment value, because the total assets of the rich need very large containers to hold. The 2 million just-needed disk was doubled to earn 2 million, but the 20 million luxury house beat the just-needed disk with an increase of 10% and killed it.

For ordinary people, before buying a suite, their appreciation potential, location and apartment orientation will be calculated repeatedly; But for the rich, when he decides where to buy a suite, he actually buys identity and social circle.

Many years ago, I asked a business owner why he knew such a senior official. He told me: I just got here. In order to catch up with someone, I bought a villa in his community, and then we met.

People who buy luxury houses don't expect the house to earn much money for themselves in the short term. They made millions in business.

03

Queue up to make a fortune

Buying a house in China is equivalent to queuing to get rich. The wealth gap formed by this society in the past ten years is mainly caused by real estate, not by work and education. Working in the same company, others buy more suites than you. After a few years, the wealth gap between you two will widen and never catch up, because the money earned by the appreciation of another suite may be the sum of your ten-year salary.

However, many people usually work hard, but when they buy a house, they find that they have little knowledge accumulated in the real estate field, let alone professionalism.

In fact, the house:

Buying the right one can change your life. After the rapid appreciation of the house, it will help improve the quality of family life and expand the total assets.

If you buy it wrong, it will be black and will be accused by relatives.

Ten thousand hours of deliberate training is a universal rule for success in all walks of life, which is absolutely true in the real estate field. There is no shortcut.