Immigration management exercise

Since 2 1 century, profound changes have taken place in the South China Sea. Neighboring countries and foreign forces have adjusted their strategies and South China Sea policies one after another, constantly challenging China's South China Sea policies and propositions. The situation in the South China Sea is gradually moving from overall stability to turmoil, and the uncertainty is increasing. The nature of the struggle has also risen from the dispute over maritime rights and interests to the maritime strategic game. It can be predicted that in the coming period, the situation in the South China Sea will remain in a state where there is no war on the whole, and local confrontation and conflict are inevitable. Tite for tat, fighting without breaking, is the political and diplomatic principle and struggle strategy that all parties jointly grasp.

China will continue to maintain good political and diplomatic relations and close economic and trade exchanges with ASEAN and its member countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam and other disputed countries in the South China Sea. At the same time, the competition and strategic game around the maritime rights and interests of the South China Sea will be more complicated and profound. The Philippines, Viet Nam and other disputed countries in the South China Sea have engaged in "great power balance", turned to China for help in economy and the United States for help in security, and constantly used extraterritorial forces to compete with China in an attempt to consolidate their illegally seized interests in the South China Sea. The continuous involvement of the United States and other extraterritorial forces is not only one of the important reasons for the sudden tension in the South China Sea since 20 10, but also will bring more unstable factors to the South China Sea. It is in the strategic interest of the United States to incite and support neighboring countries to maintain moderate tension and confrontation with China in maritime disputes, deliberately distort the image of China's peaceful rise, and exert various pressures on China. Therefore, it is not only a major theoretical and practical issue at present, but also a long-term strategic task to correctly analyze the South China Sea issue and its situation and jointly safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea region with neighboring countries on the basis of resolutely defending China's territory, sovereignty and security.

I. General situation of the South China Sea at present

(A) the South China Sea and the South China Sea Islands' natural profile

The total natural sea area of the South China Sea is about 3.5 million square kilometers, including the main sea areas of the South China Sea, the Beibu Gulf and the Gulf of Thailand. The vertical span of the South China Sea is about 2000 kilometers, and the east-west span is 1000 kilometers. The South China Sea is almost completely surrounded by continents, peninsulas and islands, bordering China, Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong and Taiwan Province provinces in the north, Philippine Islands in the east, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia in the south, and Vietnam, Malay Peninsula and Indonesia in the west. Zengmu shoal, the southernmost tip of China, is located at the southernmost tip of Nansha Islands, with latitude 3 58' north and longitude11217' east. Surrounded by many straits, the South China Sea connects the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, which is the "lifeline" of trade and maritime transportation between East and Southeast Asian countries and the rest of the world. Among them, the Straits of Malacca is called the "throat" between the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.

The South China Sea Islands are the general name of many natural landforms (hereinafter referred to as "South Island Reef" or "natural landforms") of China in the South China Sea, including about 300 islands, reefs, sand and beaches. These natural landforms are widely distributed, starting from Wei Bei Beach near the coast in the north, Wan 'an Beach in the west, Zengmu shoal in the south, and Huangyan Island in the east, stretching for about 1.800 km from north to south and distributing for more than 900 km from east to west. According to the distribution of these natural landforms, China has always divided them into four islands for management, namely dongsha islands, Xisha Islands, zhongsha islands and Nansha Islands. According to1Some Standard Geographical Names of South China Sea Islands approved by China Geographical Names Committee on April 24th, 983, Nansha Islands have 189 names, including 14 islands, 6 sandbars, 34 reefs135 shoals.

At present, dongsha islands is under the jurisdiction of Taiwan Province Province, China; The Xisha Islands are under the jurisdiction of Chinese mainland; Except Huangyan Island, zhongsha islands is located underwater and is under the jurisdiction of Chinese mainland. Islands in the South China Sea, except the eight islands and reefs stationed by China (seven in Chinese mainland, including Yongshu Reef, Hua Reef, Chigua Reef, Dongmen Reef, Nanxun Reef, Qibi Reef and mischief reef; Taiwan Province Province is stationed in Taiping Island, the largest island in Nansha, and more than 40 other islands and reefs have been illegally occupied by Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia.

Nansha Islands is the southernmost of the four islands in the South China Sea in China, with the largest number of islands and reefs and the widest distribution. The main islands are Taiping Island, Nanwei Island, Zhongye Island, etc. More than 20 islands, and the rest are mostly low-tide highlands submerged at high tide and exposed at low tide, as well as natural landforms such as reefs and shoals.

(2) The situation in the South China Sea and its development trend.

In recent years, on the whole, the situation in the South China Sea is complicated and changeable. From each specific field, the situation is different.

From a political point of view, the geopolitical pattern and political power contrast in the South China Sea are undergoing profound changes. Judging from China's relations with ASEAN and its member countries, China has maintained friendly political relations with all these countries, even those disputed with the South China Sea. On the South China Sea issue, the positions and attitudes of other ASEAN members are not completely consistent. In addition to these countries in the region, some countries outside the region are gradually involved in the South China Sea affairs, playing an increasingly important role in the geopolitical construction and political power comparison in the South China Sea, including the United States and Japan, of which the United States is the representative.

The necessity of Sino-US cooperation is increasing, and the strategic game in the direction of the ocean is beginning to emerge. In the eyes of the United States, China will inevitably pose a potential threat to the traditional hegemonic position of the United States in the world's oceans, and even pose a challenge in some aspects. At present, the United States has adjusted its Asia-Pacific strategy, and the South China Sea is an extremely important part of its Asia-Pacific strategy. Preventing and containing China's growing influence in the South China Sea has become a strategic goal of the United States in the near future and in the future.

At present, in the South China Sea, the United States shares the same strategic interests with the Philippines and Viet Nam, namely, balancing and containing the China. Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries are afraid that China will forcibly regain its vested interests in the South China Sea, and urgently need the help of foreign forces to counter China. However, the Philippines, Viet Nam and other countries should also learn from Georgian experience and lessons, and do not imagine that once their maritime dispute with China intensifies, the United States will not hesitate to directly intervene in the conflict with China in order to help them. Therefore, at the political level, the South China Sea is a new stage for strategic games.

From the economic point of view, in the global economic downturn, China's relatively stable economic development is of great significance to South China Sea countries. China maintains close and important relations with the United States and countries around the South China Sea. Economic and trade exchanges between China and ASEAN countries, including those around the South China Sea, are increasing. Therefore, for China, Viet Nam and the Philippines, cooperation in the economic field will continue to maintain a good momentum of development. Promoting sustainable economic development is the common interest of all countries in the region.

From a military point of view, all parties are exercising restraint and are unwilling to have a direct military conflict. In the South China Sea dispute, all countries used their navies carefully and generally sent demilitarized administrative law enforcement forces. However, the United States and Japan have successively strengthened military cooperation and assistance with the Philippines in various ways to help the Philippines improve its maritime military capabilities. The United States and India have also strengthened military exchanges and cooperation with Vietnam. Russia quickly resumed its traditional military cooperation with Vietnam. In short, with the support of foreign forces, disputed countries in the South China Sea, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, are setting off a boom in arms construction.

Judging from the exploration and development of natural resources in the South China Sea, the natural resources in the South China Sea are mainly fishery resources and oil and gas mineral resources, and new resources such as natural gas hydrate are still in the investigation and research stage. In the development and utilization of fishery resources, in disputed waters, China fishermen's fishing boats often face the threat of illegal arrest by neighboring countries. In the exploration and development of oil and gas resources, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines have cooperated with foreign companies in disputed areas all the year round to illegally plunder oil and gas resources in disputed areas. On the contrary, so far, China has not drilled an oil and gas well in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.

In a word, there is obvious asymmetry in the development and utilization of natural resources in the South China Sea. China has always exercised restraint, while the Philippines, Vietnam and other countries ignored China's goodwill and forbearance, never accepted China's proposal of "shelving disputes and jointly developing", trampled on the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and plundered oil and gas resources in disputed areas. Vietnam has signed hundreds of contracts with multinational oil and gas companies in the world to jointly explore and develop oil and gas resources, and almost divided the entire disputed area in the South China Sea into more than 200 oil and gas bidding areas. In June this year, despite strong opposition from China, the Vietnamese National Assembly passed the Law of the Sea of Vietnam, which formally wrote the Xisha Islands and Nansha Islands in China into legislation.

In order to cope with the increasingly wanton provocation of Vietnam, China has taken some countermeasures this year. For example, the State Council officially announced the establishment of Sansha City as a first-class local administrative system in charge of the zhongsha islands, Xisha Islands and Nansha Islands in the South China Sea; For the first time, China Offshore Oil Corporation demarcated nine oil and gas bidding blocks in disputed areas in the South China Sea and released them to the public. These blocks are located in disputed waters between China and Viet Nam and do not involve other disputed countries. Disputes over natural resources in the South China Sea will continue to exist, which is one of the important factors affecting the situation in the South China Sea, and there is the possibility of local confrontation or confrontation caused by resource issues.

From the perspective of international public opinion, it can be said that 20 10 is an important turning point. Since then, the South China Sea dispute has been hyped up and become a hot issue. At present, the publicity of the South China Sea dispute is in sharp contrast with that before the end of 1990. On the one hand, according to media reports, before the end of 1990, the dispute over the South China Sea was only occasionally reported in various media, and in the past two years, reports about the dispute over the South China Sea can be seen almost every day. On the other hand, judging from the mechanisms such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and the Foreign Ministers' Meeting, before the end of11990s, the South China Sea dispute was almost never listed as a formal discussion topic at the meeting. Since 20 10, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a high-profile declaration to ensure "freedom of navigation in the South China Sea" and the United States has great interests in the South China Sea, the dispute over the South China Sea has almost become one of the main topics of ASEAN meetings at all levels in the past two years. This year even went to an extreme, because the Philippines unreasonably requested that the confrontation between China and the Philippines on Huangyan Island be included in the meeting documents, which led to the failure to reach an agreement and issue a joint statement at this year's ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, which was the first time since the establishment of ASEAN.

From a legal point of view, China's claim in the South China Sea has a dual basis, including general international law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. There is basically only one basis for neighboring countries, that is, the convention (this issue will be explained in detail below).

Second, the origin and complex background of the "South China Sea issue"

(1) When did the "South China Sea Issue" appear?

Looking back at history, we can see that the South China Sea dispute began in the late 1970s. From that period to the 1980s, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia began to occupy some islands and reefs of Nansha Islands in China, which were protested and countered by China, so that China and Vietnam had two local armed conflicts in the South China Sea in the 1970s and 1980s. However, even so, the South China Sea dispute has not become a regional hotspot or focus, and the situation in the South China Sea has always been peaceful and stable on the whole.

However, around 2009, the situation in the South China Sea began to change, and 20 10 was the turning point of the situation in the South China Sea. After completing the strategic deployment of the Asia-Pacific region and the adjustment of the South China Sea policy, the United States made mutual use of Vietnam and took advantage of Vietnam's rotating presidency of ASEAN to get involved in South China Sea affairs in a high profile. The representative event was that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton repeatedly talked about the issue of "freedom of navigation" in the South China Sea at the ASEAN Regional Forum that year, and declared that the United States had national interests in the South China Sea.

In recent years, Vietnam and the Philippines have greatly changed their strategies for fighting in the South China Sea and adopted a multi-pronged approach. In terms of relations with China, while praising the friendly and cooperative relations with China, they have taken active measures to continuously strengthen their actual presence in the South China Sea and consolidate and safeguard their vested interests in encroaching on islands and reefs and exploring and developing oil and gas resources in the South China Sea. At the same time, Viet Nam and the Philippines have also taken measures such as concealing the truth and distorting the facts, playing the role of victims bullied by China in the South China Sea. Within ASEAN, the Philippines and Viet Nam spared no effort to kidnap other ASEAN members and "unanimously" deal with China.

An understanding was reached between Vietnam and the Philippines, which temporarily shelved the territorial dispute over Nansha Island reef and maritime delimitation dispute between the two sides, and cooperated closely to openly challenge and deny China's legitimate rights and interests in the South China Sea, which provided great convenience for the United States to quickly intervene in the South China Sea dispute. In terms of extraterritorial forces, Vietnam and the Philippines urgently pulled the United States into the South China Sea to counter China; They quickly strengthened their political, military and economic cooperation with countries other than Japan and India, and took advantage of the maritime disputes or lack of strategic mutual trust between these countries and China, as well as their high concern for the strategic position of the South China Sea, to win their support and draw them into South China Sea affairs.

At the same time, countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines also violated the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and stepped up unilateral development and construction in disputed areas, which triggered tensions in the South China Sea. For a long time, Vietnam has been actively engaged in the construction of occupied islands and reefs, including the introduction of national policies to encourage people to move to disputed islands and develop tourism; Intensify the infrastructure construction that encroaches on islands and reefs, including the construction of hospitals and churches; Conduct parliamentary elections, drills and other activities on the island; Engaged in natural oil and gas exploration and investigation activities in disputed areas, and signed a large number of oil and gas exploration and development contracts with some oil and gas companies in the West and India. At the same time, it is also engaged in legal warfare and public opinion warfare, and plans to hold seminars at home and abroad and international public opinion propaganda, especially to mobilize overseas personnel to increase persuasion to the US Congress; Viet Nam also submitted the delimitation of the outer continental shelf in the northern and southern South China Sea. Once China stopped these illegal activities, the Vietnamese and the Philippines made a big public opinion, claiming that China had "bullied" them.

(B) the South China Sea policy of the United States

Historical facts have proved that the South China Sea issue is closely related to American regional strategy and South China Sea policy. In recent years, in order to achieve its Asia-Pacific strategic goal, the United States has vigorously hyped the "South China Sea issue". In essence, the current and future South China Sea policy of the United States is in the same strain as its initial stage. The South China Sea policy of the United States was formed during the Cold War, and its core was to compete for strategic control.

During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union competed for strategic control of the Pacific Northwest. As an important part of the Pacific Northwest, the South China Sea naturally belongs to the strategic struggle and control of the United States and the Soviet Union. From the end of the Cold War to the early 1990s, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the withdrawal of troops from Cambodia in the Vietnam War, the United States' understanding of the importance of its military presence in the South China Sea declined, so it adjusted its South China Sea policy to "neutrality", which actually greatly weakened the importance of the South China Sea in its global strategy.

During this period, the United States took a neutral stance on the sovereignty dispute in the South China Sea and "did not support any party". Since then, in order to reserve the right to adjust their position when their security interests are affected, American politicians began to carefully avoid the issue of China's territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea, and instead expressed their concern about the maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea by emphasizing the importance of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

In the 1990s, the Philippines and Vietnam took advantage of China's attaching importance to the period of strategic opportunities and maintaining the stability around it, and strengthened its infringement activities in the South China Sea. They not only consolidated and built their illegally occupied islands and reefs, but also introduced western oil and gas companies to compete for oil and gas resources in Nansha waters. 1In the middle and late 1990s, China began to get fed up with these illegal activities, and took corresponding countermeasures while protesting, such as entering and building mischief reef.

Due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia's influence in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in Southeast Asia, has been greatly weakened. The United States has gradually regarded China as a potential strategic rival in the region and adjusted its South China Sea policy accordingly. Obviously, the South China Sea policy at this stage is directly related to its strategic positioning of China. The United States unilaterally regards China's countermeasures against Vietnam and the Philippines' provocative acts in the South China Sea as China's power expansion in the South China Sea, and regards China's just claim to the South China Sea as a "threat", believing that this may turn into a large-scale military conflict, claiming that it may pose a threat to the vital maritime communication lines of the United States in the South China Sea.

1995 May 10, the State Council's acting spokesman Shelley issued a formal statement on the Nansha Islands issue, declaring that "maintaining freedom of navigation is the basic interest of the United States" and so on. In addition to continuing to adhere to the deliberately vague position on the sovereignty of the South China Sea, the statement systematically expounded the main policy intentions of the United States in the region for the first time, namely: not commenting on the views of all parties to the sovereignty dispute; The Nansha Islands issue should be resolved through peaceful means; Oppose the settlement of this dispute by force; No matter what solution is finally adopted, the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea should not be affected. 1995, the US Senate passed a resolution, formally deciding that its position on the South China Sea issue would be changed from "no position" to "position".

Since the beginning of 2 1 century, great changes have taken place in the international and domestic situation of the United States, and the South China Sea issue has increased in the United States' strategy toward China. The decline in the relative strength of the United States in the international system has greatly weakened its ability to act arbitrarily. The United States began to attach importance to maintaining its global hegemony through "smart power" such as diplomacy. The South China Sea dispute is regarded by the United States as an important part of its smart power to contain China. The United States regards the South China Sea issue as a "grasping hand" to win over countries in the Asia-Pacific region and the South China Sea in an attempt to "encircle" and "contain" China.

The United States is trying to intensify disputes in the South China Sea in a limited way, worsen the relationship between China and countries in dispute in the South China Sea, undermine peace and stability in the South China Sea, create excuses for its intervention in South China Sea affairs, and create difficulties for China, so as to achieve the purpose of containing China and delaying the rapid development of China. The United States attempts to "muddy the waters" by mixing the issue of freedom of navigation involving the development and security of all countries into the "South China Sea issue", thus drawing countries outside Japan, Australia, India and other countries into the South China Sea region, changing the comparative pattern of political forces in the region, weakening China's growing regional influence, and creating conditions for it to compete for the leading position in security affairs in the region.

At the same time, however, the interests of China and the United States are becoming increasingly complex and deepening, and the United States does not want to have a direct conflict with China in the surrounding waters for the time being. To this end, in recent years, the United States has adopted the strategy of introducing "agents" and acting as "peacemakers" in order to quickly realize the transformation of its South China Sea policy from "non-intervention" to "active intervention".

On the one hand, the United States made Vietnam and the Philippines willing to act as an "agent" for the United States to challenge and openly confront China in the direction of the South China Sea. Since 20 10, the United States has strengthened its political and military relations with Vietnam and the Philippines in various ways. For example, the current US-Vietnam relationship is "the best since the Vietnam War". Taking advantage of the maritime disputes between Vietnam, the Philippines and China and the strategic needs of these countries to counter China by external forces, the United States encouraged Vietnam and the Philippines to constantly openly provoke and confront China by instigating, wooing and secretly supporting them, which led to the rapid intensification of the maritime disputes between these countries and China, which existed for more than 30 years and all parties were relatively restrained, and evolved into the so-called "South China Sea issue."

On the other hand, the United States tried to act as a "peacemaker" to mediate the "South China Sea issue". The US Secretary of State and other senior officials frequently make high-profile attacks, using the ASEAN multilateral platform and various occasions to play up the "tense situation" in the South China Sea, insinuating that China "does not abide by international rules" and creating a public opinion atmosphere for it to compete for and control the dominance of security affairs in the South China Sea. Since 20 10, the US Secretary of State, Defense Minister and other senior US military and political officials have taken turns to use various platforms such as ASEAN meetings and press conferences, as well as occasions and ways such as exchange visits, dialogues and joint military exercises with the Philippines and Vietnam to strengthen military cooperation, hyping the "South China Sea issue" in a high-profile way, forcing China to accept the "peaceful settlement of the South China Sea dispute in a multilateral way" and trying to forcibly promote it as a seemingly neutral "peacemaker".