Globalization has entered the era of 4.0, and intelligent technology has caused great changes.

Globalization has entered the era of 4.0, and intelligent technology is sweeping the world with more personalized, violent, uncontrollable and unpredictable characteristics, causing great changes.

Can robots replace human customer service? Can an American company rely entirely on hiring foreign employees? Will white-collar workers face the impact of unemployment? Richard Baldwin, an expert on world trade and globalization, points out in his new book Out of Order: Robot Age and Global Revolution that with the advent of the robot age and the breaking of communication barriers and language barriers, "white-collar robots" and "long-distance immigrants" have launched employment shocks, and a new professional class will be born.

However, the speed of unemployment caused by artificial intelligence technology is not balanced with the speed of creating new jobs. "Unemployment is certain, employment is never certain." The author predicts that there may be large-scale job transfer and large-scale unemployment in the next few years.

From the perspective of history and globalization, the author further points out that the scope and influence of global disorder are expanding from Britain's withdrawal from the European Union to the American election. I won't accept appointments in the future. The old rules are only suitable for old problems. We need to make preparations for new work and formulate new rules for the new economy to cope with the impact brought by technological progress and avoid global disorder and chaos.

Richard Cooper, former US Deputy Secretary of State and professor of economics at Harvard University, Gordon Brown, former British Prime Minister, lawrence summers, a well-known American economist, and martin wolf, deputy editor-in-chief of the Financial Times jointly recommended this book, praising its originality and foresight.

The process of globalization is accelerating.

China securities journal: First of all, the COVID-19 outbreak actually broke out after your original work was published on 20 18. In your book, you predict that mass unemployment caused by global robotization may occur as early as 2020, and it is more likely to happen in 2025. Has the COVID-19 epidemic slowed down this process? Or is it because during the epidemic, this trend has accelerated to some extent as working from home has become more and more popular?

Professor Baldwin: I think the COVID-19 epidemic has undoubtedly accelerated the globalization of online telecommuting. So far, most telecommuting work is done at home, but enterprises and employees are used to telecommuting teams, so enterprises in rich countries will inevitably start outsourcing more tasks to countries with lower wages.

It didn't change suddenly overnight, but it was really fast. I think it will be more like smart phones infiltrating into many people's lives, bit by bit, gradually changing our lives and work completely when we are almost unaware of it.

China securities journal: In your introduction, you wrote that after 20 16, the economic policies adopted by the American and British governments in response to the adverse effects of automation and globalization on employment were tantamount to treating brain cancer with aspirin. Can there be more explanations? Any suggestions? What do you think of globalization?

Professor Baldwin: The book mentions the domestic policies of the Trump administration in the United States and the Johnson administration in the United Kingdom. These domestic policies are no more effective than taking aspirin to treat cancer. In other words, it may make you feel good for a few hours, but it will never solve the fundamental problems of manufacturing interruption and low wage growth. If we want to solve this problem, we need a more systematic plan to help practitioners adapt to the influence of competition. Here I think of some policies implemented by Denmark and other Nordic countries, which can be used as a reference.

As for the issue of de-globalization, I am afraid I will go in the wrong direction, but at present it is mainly limited to trade in goods. Service trade is the focus of future globalization, and the current policies will not slow it down.

Great changes contain opportunities.

China securities journal: How should China position itself in the robot age and global revolution?

Professor Baldwin: The robot age and the global revolution are about the automation and globalization of service work. For a large number of qualified and talented laborers like China, this is an opportunity to export talents. Of course, I mean international freelancers here.

China securities journal: In the robot era and the global revolution, what breakthrough technologies or products have changed our life and work like smart phones?

Professor Baldwin: The machine learning training mode has made great progress in the global robotization. Its performance is much better than before, and it can automate more office work, especially in rich countries where labor is very expensive.

As far as the globalization of service industry is concerned, I think the key technological breakthrough will be machine translation, which is enough for practitioners in China to interact naturally with non-China customers.

In terms of hardware, I believe that the use of augmented reality conference system will make telecommuters look no longer far away, which will accelerate the offshore outsourcing of service work.

About the author:

Richard Baldwin, Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, studied under paul krugman, a Nobel laureate in economics. He is currently a professor of international economics at the School of Advanced International Relations and Development of the University of Geneva and the editor-in-chief of voxEU, a frontier economic policy research website. He used to be the director of the British Center for Economic and Policy Studies, 1990- 1 Senior Economist of the Council of Economic Advisers of the President of the United States, and participated in the Uruguay Round negotiations, the North American Free Trade Agreement, and the US-Japan trade dispute negotiations. He has written many books and articles on international trade, globalization, regionalism and European integration.

This article comes from china securities journal.