Documents of the International Organization for Migration

The influence of China's entry into WTO on cross-strait economic and trade relations

At present, Chinese mainland has basically completed the WTO accession negotiations, and it is expected to formally join the WTO in June this year 165438+ 10. According to the prior agreement, Taiwan Province Province will join the WTO after Chinese mainland. Cross-strait accession to the WTO will bring more favorable factors to cross-strait economic and trade exchanges. The two sides of the strait should seize this opportunity to further promote the development of cross-strait economic and trade relations, and then promote the comprehensive improvement and strengthening of cross-strait relations.

1. China's accession to the WTO is conducive to the cross-strait use of economic complementarity to promote cross-strait division of labor and cooperation.

The cross-strait economies are highly complementary. Economic complementarity stems from economic differences, that is, there are differences in economic factors such as capital, resources, technology, talents, labor, market and management between the two sides of the strait, thus creating the possibility of regional division of labor and cooperation. Giving full play to these possibilities of division of labor and cooperation will have a positive impact on promoting cross-strait economic development.

Taiwan Province Province is an island with limited geographical area and population. The island's market is small and its economy mainly depends on the export market. Chinese mainland has a huge market with a population of/kloc-0.2 billion. In the past 20 years, the economy has developed rapidly, and the potential of market development has attracted the attention and coveted by large companies and enterprises in major developed countries in the world. The electronic, chemical and mechanical industries in Taiwan Province Province have a considerable position in the international market. In the electronics industry, the output value of computer motherboards, monitors, semiconductor chips, scanners, terminals and hubs ranks first in the world market; The output value of notebook computers, integrated block design, integrated block packaging, optical disks, liquid crystal displays, drawings, network cards and other products ranks second in the world market. In the chemical industry, the output value of polyester yarn, ARS tree, PU artificial leather and thermoplastic elastomer ranks first in the world market, while the output value of terephthalic acid, nylon fiber and PVC ranks second in the world market. In the machinery industry, products such as blowers, fans, shoe leather machinery, woodworking tools, etc. It also occupies an important position in the world market. These industries can combine mainland resources and markets to seek future development. The island resources in Taiwan Province Province are relatively poor, and the shortage of land has become an important factor restricting the economic development of Taiwan Province Province. Although Chinese mainland is not rich in resources and land, it still has obvious advantages over Taiwan Province Province. At the same time, it is predicted that the wage cost in China will remain low for quite some time, and the population of/kloc-0.25 billion is a huge labor pool. If the resources, land and labor of Chinese mainland are combined with the technology, development capacity and marketing of the processing industry in Taiwan Province Province, the complementarity between the two sides will greatly increase the export volume of the processing industry. There are also some long-term enterprises in Chinese mainland that can invest and set up factories in Taiwan Province. The complementarity between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will make the whole China occupy a larger share in the globalized world economy, which has been clearly proved in the achievements made by Taiwanese businessmen in investing in the mainland of the motherland in recent decades.

Cross-strait agricultural cooperation is conducive to reducing the cost of agricultural products. Taiwan Province agriculture has made gratifying achievements in the improvement of planting, aquaculture and aquaculture technology, which is helpful to the agricultural development of Chinese mainland, especially the southeast coastal areas with similar natural conditions to Taiwan Province province. In recent years, with the investment of Taiwanese businessmen, a large number of new varieties of agricultural products have been brought to the mainland, adding color to the mainland market and increasing farmers' income. After China's entry into WTO, Taiwan Province's agriculture is facing the impact of developed agricultural countries. Only by combining with Chinese mainland's land and labor force and strengthening the cross-strait exchange of household products can we increase our resistance to the competition of agricultural products in developed countries. In fact, in recent years, many farmers in Taiwan Province Province have set up large and small farms in Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan with funds, seedlings and technology. Although the prices of agricultural products in Chinese mainland are lower than those in Taiwan Province Province, most of the farms are aiming at the mainland market, and their operations are still very successful. As the "three links" have not been realized, it is still difficult to realize the feedback of agricultural products to Taiwan Province Province. If the products are sold to Taiwan Province Province, the economic benefits will be better.

The prospects for cross-strait financial and insurance cooperation are also very broad. In order to resist the impact of large multinational banks on the cross-strait financial industry and provide financial support for mutual investment and trade, it is an important opportunity for the cross-strait financial industry to set up financial and insurance institutions and carry out financial and insurance cooperation. At present, cross-strait financial cooperation can at least include the following contents: first, it is convenient for institutions to set up each other, and the financial authorities of the two places should reach an agreement on the examination and approval and supervision of institutions, including the coordination of examination and approval of mutually established institutions. Financial institutions in Chinese mainland are subject to the same standards of examination and supervision by the financial authorities in Taiwan Province Province, while financial institutions in Taiwan Province Province can enjoy the national treatment of the mainland in addition to various preferential treatments of foreign banks; Second, cooperation in the securities market. Listed companies of both sides can selectively list on each other's securities market, allow mutual funds to enter each other's securities market under the premise of supervision, and coordinate the supervision methods of the securities markets of the two places to deal with cross-border violations; Third, opening up cross-strait direct currency exchange is conducive to cross-strait economic exchanges and personnel exchanges.

In addition, both Chinese mainland and Taiwan Province Province are rich in tourism resources, not to mention many relations between the two sides. Business, investment and visiting relatives and friends are also important sources of tourism, and I believe that tourism cooperation is also promising.

Second, under the WTO framework, cross-strait trade will further develop.

The WTO is the most authoritative organization to regulate and coordinate global economic and trade relations. Its purpose is to pursue the spirit of global trade liberalization, actively promote members to bear tariffs through consultation, reduce or eliminate non-tariff trade barriers, eliminate discriminatory treatment, and provide an equal and mutually beneficial environment, so as to expand international trade and further promote global economic growth. In order to achieve these goals, the WTO requires its members to abide by its rules and regulations, such as the most-favored-nation treatment, the principle of national treatment, the principle of tariff restriction and diminishing, the principle of open trade and free competition. Therefore, the essential significance of both sides of the Taiwan Strait's accession to the WTO is to reduce or even eliminate trade barriers with WTO members, further develop the market, and conduct free and fair economic competition under the WTO's international economic and trade norms. This will greatly promote cross-strait trade exchanges and development.

For a long time, the authorities of Taiwan Province Province have imposed strict restrictions on the import of mainland products. At present, 46% of mainland products are still not allowed to enter Taiwan Province. Taiwan Province province has been getting a large trade surplus from the mainland: 199418.4 million dollars, 199516.86 million dollars, 1996/kloc-. The mainland has become the main source of income for Taiwan Province Province to balance its international payments. After China's entry into the WTO, Taiwan Province Province will lift the measures to prohibit mainland products from entering the island and other non-tariff barriers, thus stimulating various procurement activities of Taiwan Province Province to the mainland, leading to an increase in mainland exports to Taiwan Province Province and changing the current extremely unbalanced cross-strait trade. After China's entry into WTO, more than 8,000 agricultural and industrial products in Taiwan Province will have to fulfill their tax reduction commitments. The first wave of products will be reduced by at least 30%, and agriculture will bear the brunt. Taiwan Province promised to reduce the agricultural product tax from the current 20.6% to 14. 1% in the first year after entering the customs, with a decrease of 31%; It promised to extend the tax reduction period to 2004 and reduce the tax rate by 4 1% by 2002 at the latest, except for a few agricultural products. In addition, Taiwan Province Province also promised to cancel the import restrictions on more than 40 kinds of products such as bananas and peanuts after China's entry into WTO. If both sides join the WTO at the same time, fresh fruits and vegetables and frozen processed agricultural products will enter the market of Taiwan Province Province first because of the advantages of the mainland in geography, variety and price. Only in this way can cross-strait trade grow steadily and rapidly. At the same time, in response to China's entry into WTO, on the one hand, Taiwanese businessmen will strive to sell more industrial and agricultural raw materials, semi-finished products and some finished products from the mainland to Taiwan Province Province, integrate their operations in Taiwan Province Province, and take advantage of the low cost of products in the mainland (the labor cost in the mainland is only 50% of that in Taiwan Province Province) to improve their competitiveness; On the other hand, the semi-finished products in Taiwan Province Province will be shipped to the mainland for processing and assembly, and then the certificate of origin will be obtained in the mainland, and the preferential tariffs enjoyed by the mainland will be used for export.

Third, take the opportunity of joining the WTO to resolve the political deadlock between the two sides of the strait and promote the further development of economic and trade relations.

The development of cross-strait economic and trade relations under the framework of WTO inevitably requires the establishment of hidden and normal political relations between the two sides as a guarantee, which undoubtedly creates an opportunity for the breakthrough of cross-strait political relations and provides an opportunity for the two sides to determine a stable framework for the positioning of political relations at the beginning of this century.

Joining the WTO is not a simple economic and trade issue for cross-strait relations, because when solving a series of economic and trade policy issues related to cross-strait economic and trade, such as further opening up commodity markets and investment fields, "national treatment" and "three links". Judging from the current intention of Taiwan Province Province, Taiwan Province Province expects to use the WTO mechanism or framework to regulate cross-strait economic and trade relations as a peer member, and under this framework, the goodwill of further opening up the mainland's economic and trade policies will be exchanged for the political "return" of the mainland. Obviously, in the absence of mutual trust between the two sides of the strait, the thinking of Taiwan Province Province will inevitably alert the mainland to its political intention to define cross-strait economic and trade relations as substantive international economic relations by taking the opportunity of China's accession to the WTO, thus further promoting the transformation of cross-strait relations into so-called quasi-international relations under the "two-state theory", which is undoubtedly firmly opposed by the mainland.

On New Year's Day this year, the authorities of Taiwan Province Province put forward the argument of moving from "economic integration" to "political integration". In essence, the term "economic integration" is not a theoretical concept of regional economic integration in the strict sense, because it has no specific connotation, and it refers to free trade with barrier-free flow of factors or economic integration including economic policy consistency, and the concept is not clear. Therefore, the so-called "economic integration" between the two sides of the Taiwan Province Province authorities is largely an empty concept with no operation, and its intention is to avoid the "One China" principle. With the approach of joining the WTO, on the one hand, the authorities of Taiwan Province Province hope to use the WTO mechanism to solve various problems in cross-strait economic and trade relations, so as to promote cross-strait economic and trade relations and alleviate the economic difficulties of Taiwan Province Province; On the other hand, we can take the opportunity to avoid the "One China" principle, try to seek equal political status with the two sides of the strait by joining the WTO, and even raise some issues belonging to cross-strait relations to international relations. In fact, the issue of "One China" will never be diluted by cross-strait accession to the WTO. Any attempt to avoid or delay the settlement of the China issue, or to improve and develop cross-strait economic and trade relations or comprehensive relations by bypassing the China issue, is unrealistic and infeasible.

In the last issue, many people in Taiwan Province Province were discussing how to promote the development of cross-strait economic relations under the framework of w to. On March 26th, Chauvin, the current vice chairman of the Kuomintang, proposed to establish a "cross-strait common market". Xiao proposed that after the two sides joined the WTO, they should put aside political disputes, take the economy as the "greatest common denominator", promote the "cross-strait common market" with reference to the EU, fully open the "three links", adjust the "no haste, be patient" policy, and gradually promote the exchange of goods, capital and gold between the two sides. It should be said that this idea is intended to break the cross-strait political deadlock and promote the development of cross-strait relations. The starting point is good, but under the current conditions, it lacks practical feasibility, and the crux of it still lies in whether to recognize the "One China" principle. In fact, both the mainland and Taiwan Province Province belong to the same China, and cross-strait economic and trade exchanges and even the "three links" belong to the internal affairs of one country. Although cross-strait exchanges are different from those between mainland provinces and autonomous regions in specific ways, the premise of one China must be clear. Otherwise, if we avoid this point and promote "* * * the same market", it may lead to the emergence of a new "EU" on both sides of the strait, and may even be used as the concept of "* * * the same market" between sovereign countries to determine our future cross-strait economic and trade. Not long ago, Zhang Junxiong, the "Executive Dean" of Taiwan Province Province, said that he would sign an investment mutual protection agreement with Chinese mainland under the framework of WTO and APEC to establish a cross-strait market. Among them, we can't help but be wary of whether the Taiwan Province authorities can avoid recognizing the one-China principle by supporting the "cross-strait market" and ease the pressure on this issue; Only in this way can Taiwan Province Province get tangible economic benefits, win the hearts of the people and consolidate the political power.

As the time for the two sides to join the WTO approaches, the people of Taiwan Province Province are calling for the Taiwan Province authorities to cancel the "no haste, be patient", and the calls for direct "three links" between the two sides are getting louder and louder. The authorities of Taiwan Province Province should consider the well-being of the people in Taiwan Province Province, recognize the "One China" principle as soon as possible, open the mainland policy to the maximum extent, and take the opportunity of joining the WTO to promote the development of cross-strait economic and trade relations, so that the economy of Taiwan Province Province can get out of the predicament and move towards prosperity.