Will Suzhou become the next Shenzhen?

I, a Suzhou native, hope so, but it is difficult to achieve it with great probability.

Suzhou is developing rapidly now, but Shenzhen is faster.

I have been to Shenzhen several times, and the local bosses I contacted impressed me most were the large pattern and high efficiency. Although the big names in the industry I can contact are not big companies, I can still tell the actual things when I talk about what to do now, what to do in the future, and how to deal with market changes. The surrounding upstream and downstream facilities are also complete.

Perhaps the reason for being close to Hong Kong is that Shenzhen's industries are extremely rich and varied.

Private enterprises in Suzhou (not neighboring counties and cities) are not like this. On the one hand, some cooperative processes that have developed into scale feel a little overwhelmed …

On the other hand, although local young people have started more businesses than before, they are much worse than Shenzhen. Even if many good ideas are implemented, it is difficult to get good returns, so that's all they can see.

But the relative advantage of these shortcomings is that the pressure of life in Suzhou is really not as great as that in Shenzhen.

For example, a third-rate programmer, with a salary of 10K, will definitely be enough in Shenzhen, and it will be ok in Suzhou.

Is Suzhou near Shenzhen? Not necessarily! First look at the economic data of the two cities last year.

Shenzhen

Population:13.03 million, total GDP: 2,422.2 billion, per capita:185,994 yuan;

Suzhou

Population:10.72 million, total GDP:1859.8 billion, per capita: 173489 yuan;

Suzhou has created a GDP equivalent to 77% with only 82% of Shenzhen's population. Which other city is so close? Even Guangzhou, which is known as the "Twin Heroes of South Guangdong", has a larger population than Shenzhen 1.4( 1.87 million), and its GDP is only 94%. If Suzhou has the population of Guangzhou, it will create more GDP than Shenzhen162.8 billion!

What's in Suzhou? Nothing! At the city level, such as sub-provincial level and cities with separate plans, nothing can compare with it. And what is Shenzhen? It is a special zone that is taken care of by economic policies and tax policies, and a city with separate plans.

The success of Shenzhen has its historical reasons, favorable conditions and people. It is difficult for other cities to have this advantage at the same time, and this success is almost impossible to replicate. Just after the reform and opening up, the country needs overseas/overseas funds to enter, and Shenzhen, which is adjacent to Hong Kong, naturally becomes a bridgehead. It is here that the strategic focus of the whole country is on policies and manpower. Overseas/foreign merchants also choose Shenzhen to test the water and enter the mainland with the help of the Hong Kong consortium. In a short time, a large number of hot money, technology and talents entered Shenzhen. Because this country chose to set up an exchange in Shenzhen, where the economy was not large at that time, it was precisely because it saw the enthusiasm for development. The country needs to attract foreign/overseas investors through Shenzhen as a model city, and foreign customers also need to test a huge newly opened China market through Shenzhen. Therefore, the failure of Shenzhen is unjust.

At this time, land is cheap, manpower is cheap, and taxes are favorable. A large amount of investment is chosen to be put into production in Shenzhen, and the infrastructure project will be completed at one time. At this time, Wang Shi climbed over the barbed wire and chose to go to Shenzhen. Even Ren, who is in the mainland, has to choose to start a business in Shenzhen. Even the aunt who buys tea eggs is looking at the stocks of Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Can you imagine how hot Shenzhen was then?

The country set up four special economic zones at one time, why only Shenzhen succeeded? Because only Shenzhen is next to Hong Kong, which was the most developed city in the world at that time, or Britain, and there are such favorable geographical locations and people! The developed finance, trade and shipping in Hong Kong were exactly what Shenzhen lacked at that time. So Hong Kong is responsible for finding money and Shenzhen is responsible for production. This model has been going on for more than 20 years. It was not until many years later that these industries moved to neighboring cities. ......

An era has its own development ideas, and a city has its own development ideas, which can only be used for reference and cannot be completely copied (or copied), so Suzhou cannot become Shenzhen. Suzhou, which has no advantage in policy and political resources, has also developed into a leading prefecture-level city in China. This is the differentiated development of the city. Just find a road suitable for the city's own development.

Anything is possible.

Suzhou, as a prefecture-level city, can develop to this extent today, which is already comparable to the miracle of Shenzhen. Suzhou almost tied Shenzhen once, but for the global financial crisis in 2008, which slowed down the global economic growth and affected the enthusiasm of foreign investment in Suzhou, Suzhou would probably surpass Shenzhen in one fell swoop.

Next, let me analyze why Suzhou may become the next Shenzhen:

1. Like Shenzhen, it is backed by an awesome neighbor: Shenzhen is backed by Hong Kong and Suzhou is backed by Shanghai;

2. Suzhou has a low administrative level, but it does not mean that the administrative level will remain low. As a prefecture-level city, Suzhou can still develop to this extent. Once listed as a city under separate state planning or municipality directly under the central government, its development potential is immeasurable.

3. Suzhou has always been one of the most prosperous and developed places in China, with a solid economic foundation;

4. The city group with Suzhou as its back is the most developed city group in China, and it is close to developed cities such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuxi, Nanjing and Ningbo, and the mutual promotion between cities is enormous;

The four subordinate counties and cities in Suzhou are among the top ten counties in China all the year round. Relying on Suzhou, the resultant force they can form is definitely not as simple as 1+ 1=2.

Above.

Suzhou and Shenzhen are the best cities in China, but economically, Suzhou can't catch up with Shenzhen, which is a miracle in the world economic history!

Suzhou is one of the most beautiful cities in China, with a paradise above and a reputation of Suzhou and Hangzhou below, which makes Suzhou famous overseas. Suzhou has been the economic center of the south since the Tang and Song Dynasties, and it has been extremely rich for thousands of years. In Shenzhen, it is only 40 years since Baoan County was revoked from 1979 to the establishment of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. Compared with the beginning of 20 18, GDP has increased by 8080 times, which is a miracle in the history of world economy!

The following table compares the GDP of Suzhou and Shenzhen from 2005 to 20 18. Suzhou's closest to Shenzhen occurred at 20 10, Suzhou ranked fifth in the country with a GDP of 9 168 billion RMB, Shenzhen ranked fourth with a leading edge of 34.3 billion RMB, and the top three were of course Shanghai/Beijing/Guangzhou! During 2003 -20 10, Shenzhen was undergoing painful transformation, and Suzhou's export-oriented economy was in full swing. At that time, voices criticizing Shenzhen began to appear, and an article "Shenzhen, Who Abandoned You" continued to ferment on the Internet. Suzhou once had great confidence to surpass Shenzhen and set up a super club of Beishangguangsu. But who can imagine that in 20 10 years, Shenzhen will be like a runaway wild horse and an eagle spreading its wings out of control. The leading range is from 34.3 billion to nearly 600 billion, which has not only left Suzhou far behind, but also surpassed its eldest brothers Guangzhou and Hongkong in one fell swoop, becoming the third super giant in China and the fifth in Asia. Not only Suzhou, but also Guangzhou and Hong Kong are lost!

If it's just a numerical lead, it's not worth boasting about. The key is that even the economic quality is second to none in the country. Shenzhen is ahead of Suzhou in fiscal revenue, industrial structure, per capita wealth, transportation, scientific and technological inventions, and population attraction. Shenzhen's innovation attracts worldwide attention, and it is a veritable maker's capital. The maker space here may exceed that of San Francisco and its neighboring Silicon Valley Science and Technology Zone.

Shenzhen's innovation has formed a huge scale effect, and a large number of technology giants and Internet companies have mushroomed. Huawei, Tencent, BYD, ZTE, Yin Tian, DJI and other companies are not rivals, let alone crush Zhou Su. In recent years, Jiangsu has been separated from Guangdong because of insufficient innovation and transformation.

Shenzhen's success is due to many factors, such as national support, relying on Hong Kong and Macao, industrial policies, respect for talents, cultural tolerance and so on. Of course, this is also inseparable from the contribution of thousands of old and new Shenzhen in Qian Qian to this city. The development of Shenzhen is to seize the historical opportunity under the special background and cannot be copied. On the other hand, it is not easy for Suzhou to develop an ordinary prefecture-level city into today's economic giant without policy advantages and state support.

Suzhou can't become Shenzhen, and Suzhou doesn't need to become Shenzhen. Suzhou is Suzhou, Suzhou also has countless elements that Shenzhen does not have, her historical vicissitudes, her elegance and gracefulness, her small bridges and flowing water, her picturesque scenery, and countless people's dreams of Jiangnan and poetic water towns!

Even if Suzhou one day surpasses Shenzhen in GDP, it will not be the next Shenzhen. Shenzhen's success can't be replicated, no matter its geographical location, development model or supporting facilities.

Although Suzhou has a strong economy, it is essentially different from Shenzhen. Shenzhen is an economic city in the urban area, with highly developed financial and IT industries. Suzhou is a county-level economic city with developed factory industry. But looking at the world-class developed cities, none of them is a factory economy, and no county economy is more developed than the urban economy. And these cities have one thing in common, that is, the financial industry is very developed.

In the early days of Shenzhen's market-making, it was a model of private enterprises plus finance. It was a commercial embryonic form built by countless immigrants bit by bit, and an economic framework created by China people themselves. Most foreign companies entered after Shenzhen's economy took shape, which is a powerful role.

Suzhou is different. Foreign companies are helpful to Suzhou. In the 1990s, Suzhou was dominated by tourism and foreign companies. Until the beginning of the new century, the concept of the Yangtze River Delta came into effect, the logistics industry and the network economy entered a blowout period, the local private economy in Suzhou soared, and the proportion of small and micro enterprises such as factories and workshops was still very large.

Although the total economic output of Suzhou has reached 77% of that of Shenzhen, the stock of office buildings in Suzhou is only one-fifth of that of Shenzhen, the proportion of financial industry is only one-sixth of that of Shenzhen, and the retail sales of goods is only half of that of Shenzhen.

Whether as a tourist or a bystander, the impression of a city mainly comes from the urban area. Therefore, compared with urban economic cities, county-factory economic cities have obvious gaps in both urban construction and commercial prosperity. Suzhou's income and expenditure ratio is much higher than Suzhou's health, so Suzhou is expected to surpass Shenzhen in the future, but this only exists at the economic level, and economy is not the only criterion to measure the urban gap.

There is a telecom manufacturing company in Suzhou, which was established in 1996. At that time, we could bid for MDF, DDF and ODF wiring projects with Huawei and other companies, and even won the bid in some cities. Today, although the company has long been listed on the Shenzhen small and medium-sized board, its main business is shrinking day by day, and its share price is maintained by frequent speculation. The funds obtained from financing are used to develop industrial communities and do landlord business. The management of the company is divided into the boss, classmates and friends, and the boss's brother and sister. This is the epitome of local enterprises in Suzhou.

Suzhou has been rich since ancient times. Since the end of the Qing Dynasty, Suzhou has gradually lost its spirit, and the people are comfortable with it, lacking pioneering spirit and vision. However, Wujiang, a township enterprise that made its fortune in the cable and optical cable industry, still has some momentum.

Generally speaking, Suzhou absolutely lacks the fighting spirit of Shenzhen people, and even lacks companies and leaders with international influence like Huawei. In the end, Suzhou will become a livable city at most, not a hot spot for entrepreneurship.

This question is very interesting and meaningful. In my opinion, Suzhou will not be the next Shenzhen. Why? There are the following aspects.

First of all, Suzhou is not a regional leader. Accurately speaking, the development of Suzhou is mainly the blessing of Shanghai. Shanghai's leading position in the Yangtze River Delta region cannot be shaken by any city in the region. Shenzhen is the leader of the Pearl River Delta. At present, Shenzhen's GDP has surpassed Guangzhou, ranking first in the Pearl River Delta.

Secondly, Suzhou's urban economy is average. Some people say that if Kunshan is abandoned, Suzhou's economy will be reduced by half. This statement may be a bit exaggerated. However, Kunshan, as the first county in China, is really powerful. Without Kunshan, Suzhou's economic aggregate will be much less, which is inevitable.

Finally, Suzhou's urban positioning is average. Compared with the regional central city of Shenzhen, Suzhou still has a big gap. Shanghai has occupied the position of the only central city in the Yangtze River Delta. Besides, the two sub-central cities are Nanjing and Hangzhou!

To sum up, Suzhou will not be the next Shenzhen in a decade or two. Even with this desire, there is still a long way to go.

Come on Suzhou!

Shenzhen is a leading city of China's technology giants and industrial and commercial brands, and even Shanghai and Beijing are not comparable. Shenzhen's GDP is expected to exceed 2.2 trillion yuan in 20 17, up about 8.8% year-on-year; Suzhou achieved GDP10.7 trillion yuan in 20 17 years, an increase of 7% over the previous year. This is the latest data.

There are China Ping An, Huawei, Tencent, BYD, SF, Vanke, ZTE, Belle and other famous brands and enterprises in Shenzhen. In contrast, Suzhou's Bosideng, Haig Bus, Lianfeng, Yalu, Del, Menglan, Good Boy, Ciyun, Lei and other brands are completely out of the same class.

However, Suzhou is the "richest man" in prefecture-level cities in China, ranking seventh among major cities in China on 20 16. 20 17 is expected to surpass Tianjin and rise to the sixth place. The data of 20 17 has not been fully released, so it is estimated that Suzhou still has a beautiful performance. 20 16 "charming China-the most attractive city in China in the eyes of foreign talents": Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, Qingdao, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Nanjing and Changchun were selected, and Suzhou ranked seventh. The scores on the four first-level indicators are comparable to those in Shenzhen.

65438+1On October 26th, the mayor of Suzhou, Li Yaping, said on the eve of this year's Jiangsu Provincial People's Congress and CPPCC: Suzhou will be brave as "two benchmarks" and build "four famous cities". Be brave enough to be the benchmark of building a well-off society in an all-round way at a high level, explore the benchmark of Socialism with Chinese characteristics's modernization road with the characteristics of the times and Jiangsu, implement the "Four Highlights" and build "Four Famous Cities", fully demonstrate the innovative exploration and leading role of Suzhou's development, and contribute to the construction of the province's rich and powerful city, high-quality new Jiangsu and "six high-quality development".

Suzhou, a prefecture-level city, cannot become the second Shenzhen for the time being because of its urban positioning and national strategy; However, Suzhou's current development momentum is expected to rank among the "new first-line" cities and firmly sit in the position of the national prefecture-level city boss!

20 18 latest economic data

Last year, Suzhou High-tech Zone promoted 33 key scientific and technological innovation projects, added 2 innovation carrier platforms1and 80 high-tech enterprises.

Suzhou may become a city like Shenzhen, but Shenzhen will never become Suzhou.

Suzhou has the best preserved ancient city in China and is a model of Jiangnan culture in China. Suzhou gardens are world-famous and world heritage. In addition, three of the six ancient towns in Jiangnan are located in Suzhou. It can be said that Suzhou has not only a developed economy, but also a profound history and splendid culture.

As a special economic zone, Shenzhen's GDP was surpassed by Suzhou in the fastest-growing period in 2000. Suzhou is only a prefecture-level city, and has no resource advantages such as provincial capital, sub-provincial cities and special economic zones.

But Suzhou is the most developed prefecture-level city in China, surpassing all provincial capitals except Guangzhou, which is a miracle. Moreover, Shenzhen and Suzhou are the two largest immigrant cities in China and the two cities with the highest per capita GDP in China.

Suzhou is the largest industrial city in China, which has surpassed Shanghai, not to mention Shenzhen. Suzhou's advantages lie in manufacturing and real economy, while Shenzhen is an internet and high-tech enterprise, but Suzhou is also an important high-tech manufacturing base of the country.

So these two cities are miracles of economic development. One is that the fishing village becomes a special zone, and the other is a prefecture-level city that surpasses almost all provincial capitals. They also occupy the top two places with the highest GDP per capita in China, so they all have their own advantages.

However, Suzhou became the capital of Wu in the Spring and Autumn Period, and in the Song Dynasty, it was called a paradise in heaven and Suzhou and Hangzhou on the earth. Ming and Qing Dynasties were the economic center of China and the largest industrial and commercial city in the Eastern Hemisphere. Such a glorious history and the best preserved ancient city in China cannot be copied by Shenzhen or any other city.

Welcome to pay attention to nut travel and gain more knowledge about dry goods.

Suzhou is the best prefecture-level city in China, and its economic strength was once second only to Guangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, almost catching up with Shenzhen.

During the Song, Ming and Qing Dynasties, Suzhou was one of the most prosperous cities in China, and it had the inherent reputation of "paradise on earth and Suzhou and Hangzhou on earth". After the founding of New China and the spring breeze of reform and opening up, Suzhou once again shines brilliantly, which is of course related to the radiation power of Shanghai, a super city. Suzhou is the most dazzling star-rated city in China from the end of last century to the first 10 year of this world, and its economic strength is second only to the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

The data shows that in 20 10, the GDP of Suzhou and Shenzhen was 900 billion yuan and 950 billion yuan respectively, and the gap narrowed to 50 billion yuan. Moreover, compared with 2008 and 2009, the gap between Suzhou and Shenzhen in this economic aggregate index continues to narrow. This makes them mistakenly think that Suzhou, which has more land and big investment, will soon surpass Shenzhen.

However, this glory began to fade after the global financial crisis broke out in 2008. 2008 is the turning point of Suzhou economy. Although Suzhou's economy and Shenzhen's continued to shrink in 2009 and 20 10, the slowdown trend has been formed. The financial crisis led to the decline of global purchasing power, which affected the export volume of coastal cities in China, and the dividend of marine cities gradually peaked. So not only Suzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Qingdao, Dalian and Shenzhen all have more or less influence.

However, due to the financial crisis, Shenzhen took the lead in economic transformation, successfully embarked on the road of economic development driven by scientific and technological innovation, and became the capital of science and technology in China. Other cities have also begun to transform in recent years. Shenzhen abandoned Suzhou, and the economic downturn in Suzhou gave Tianjin and Chongqing an opportunity, and they also surpassed Suzhou.

Is Suzhou likely to surpass Shenzhen in the future?

Yes, but the probability is not great. Unless Suzhou is directly under the central government or upgraded to a city with separate plans, it is possible to surpass Shenzhen only if the city level is high. Otherwise, there is no way to compete with Shenzhen.

(Author: Zi Fei fish)