Tesla shares don't believe in cakes painted on investment days.

Tesla shares don't believe in cakes painted on investment days.

The crown of the richest man will fall, but the big mouth of Tesla CEO Musk has not changed. On bragging skills, Musk called it the second, and no one dared to rank first.

65438+1On October 27th, Musk surpassed bernard arnault, CEO of French luxury goods giant LVMH, and returned to be the richest man in the world with the value of 187 1 billion dollars.

Maybe people are happy when they are happy. On March 1 day, US time, Musk once again said in the Q&A session of Tesla's first investor day activity that Tesla did not plan to launch too many models to achieve the goal of selling 20 million cars in 2030. He estimated that the 10 model may be enough, which means that each model sells an average of 2 million vehicles a year.

In fact, the investment day is mainly for investors. Musk also painted other cakes: for example, the HW4.0 platform, which has not yet been announced, is now translucent. It is estimated that the new platform will reduce the use of silicon carbide by 75% and no longer use rare earth materials, saving about $65,438+0,000.

The energy storage plan is 240TWH, and the renewable power is 30TW. The investment in manufacturing needs to reach 10 trillion dollars, and the energy demand is less than half of the fuel economy.

Tesla also said that if new energy production capacity (wind power, solar energy, batteries) is increased as planned before 2030, 100% sustainable energy can be achieved by 2050.

This conference was not on the consumer side from the beginning, but more like a muscle show, showing its efficiency, cost and even environmental protection concept and sense of responsibility to the outside world. This pie doesn't even believe its share price. On Investor Day, Tesla's share price fell by 1.49%. On March 2, Tesla's share price plummeted by 5.85%, showing a rare three-day losing streak.

It is theoretically possible to sell 20 million cars a year, but it is even impossible to rely on 10 cars in theory.

Not to mention the cakes painted on the investment day, it is impossible to sell 20 million cars in 2030 alone, let alone the models that only use 10.

This is not the first time Musk has boasted about this goal. As early as 20021's shareholders' meeting, he expressed Tesla's confidence to maintain an annualized growth rate of at least 50%, and at the same time set the goal of "achieving 20 million vehicle sales in 2030".

Seeing that the growth rate of 50% cannot be achieved in 2022, Musk released another satellite at Tesla's 2022 shareholders' meeting. "In 10, the cumulative delivery of Tesla may exceed 1 100 million vehicles."

In this way, the compound annual growth rate is 40.52%, which slightly reduces the requirements and at least ensures that it can "reach the standard" in 2022.

In 2030, the sales volume will reach 20 million vehicles. According to the future sales volume of 10/0 million vehicles, the compound annual growth rate will be 40.52%, and it will reach 40 million vehicles in 2032.

As far as the electric vehicle market is concerned, the annual growth rate of 40.52% does not seem outrageous. In 2022, Tesla just reached the goal of 13 10000 vehicles. But as we all know, with the increasing base, it will become more and more difficult to maintain high growth.

More importantly, 20 million vehicles in 2030 is theoretically impossible, not to say that it will not be produced, but that the market is not that big. The sales of Toyota and Volkswagen Group both exceeded 6.5438+million vehicles, accounting for only about 654.38+00% of the global market share.

In recent years, the global sales of new cars are between 70 million and 90 million, of which the total production capacity of pure electric vehicles will be around 30 million by 2030, which is also predicted by Musk, while Deloitte predicts that the global sales of electric vehicles will be 3 165438+ 10,000 in 2030.

In other words, the Tesla family ate 2/3 of the pure electric market, and other brands could only carve up the remaining 1/3. Don't say that Toyota, Volkswagen, General Motors, Ford and Hyundai disagree, but BYD alone can say no, because BYD's current sales of new energy vehicles (pure electric+plug-in) are much more than Tesla's, and the growth is faster. Pure electric vehicles may also surpass Tesla in the future.

20 million vehicles should be big satellites put by Musk. There are still seven years from 2030. This goal is still possible in theory, but it is impossible to achieve it only by 10.

Because this means that the annual sales of each model should reach 2 million. You know, Tesla's sales of 65,438+0,365,438+0 million vehicles last year were completed by four models, of which Model Y and Model 3 were aimed at the largest market segment, even the best-performing Model Y sold only 900,000 vehicles last year.

In other words, the annual sales of the next six new models will reach about18.7 million, and the average sales of each model will exceed 3 million. We know that the single model with the largest sales volume in the history of automobile industry is Corolla, with an annual sales volume of 654.38+0.23 million.

BYD: The annual sales volume of the top ten main models is less than 2 million.

In fact, BYD just needs to poke Tesla's cowhide. Although BYD doesn't say it, the sales facts are there.

In 2022, BYD significantly surpassed Tesla's1.31.000 with 1.86 million vehicles; This year 10 and February10.5 million vehicles and10.93 million vehicles were used to crush Tesla again.

These achievements are mainly achieved by BYD in a market in China against Tesla's global market. There are more than 65,438+00 models, and each model is divided into many series.

Take February sales as an example, Dynasty. Com has five families: Qin, Han, Tang, Song and Yuan, plus destroyers 05 and frigates 07 of seals, dolphins and oceans. Tengshi D9 has just collected the top ten main models.

These top ten vehicles occupy a dominant position in their respective market segments. China is the largest global new energy vehicle market, and BYD currently sells about 200,000 vehicles per month.

As BYD accelerates the expansion of overseas markets, BYD's monthly sales will continue to expand, but if it doubles again, it is estimated that it will be more difficult and it will hold hands with Tesla.

Of course, Tesla still has a cost killer, but BYD has the most famous vertical integration capability in the industry, and the core components such as "Sandian" including batteries are produced by itself. Who has better cost control ability?

Musk blew a lot of cattle.

The "satellite" of the investment day is just one of many "satellites" released by Musk, and there have been countless "satellites" before.

For example: "Let 1 10,000 Robotaxi (unmanned taxis) be on the road by the end of 2020."

"In the next 15 to 20 years, 80,000 people will be sent to Mars for immigration", and now there are only five years left from the lower limit of 2027.

"2019-in 2023, launch 12000 satellite chains, and then blow 42000 satellites."

"Build a lunar base in 2025."

It's 2023. None of the cows mentioned above have been realized, and no one can hold Musk accountable. But "Wolf is coming" shouted too much, and gradually no one believed it. For example, it is necessary to constantly fight chicken blood, which is the main source of Musk's wealth.

This article comes from DearAuto, the author of Easy Car Number, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.