English translation: Overmarriage Ratio of Men and the Prediction of the Unbalanced Sex Ratio of Married Age Population and Marriage Squeeze in China.

Population and family planning commission, an China country, recently launched an "Action for Caring for Girls", which aims to reverse the imbalance of newborn sex ratio in China, especially in rural poverty-stricken areas, by advocating the concept of gender equality. It is also pointed out that by 20 10, "the sex ratio of the birth population will tend to be normal, and a new concept of marriage and childbearing and fertility culture will be initially formed."

Translated into the vernacular, the above sentence means: "There are more men in China", which destroys the ecological balance of nature, indirectly leads to serious social problems such as sexual violence crimes, incest and people's distorted social mentality, and affects the stability of society, especially marriage. Moreover, foreign public opinion boldly predicts that there will be 50 million bachelors in China in a few years.

The "surplus" of men is the result of the choice of power and will of a few people, but the consequences are borne by the whole society. Our question is, who will digest these surplus men? Internal digestion? Or seek "international cooperation" such as trade import and export, export China men and introduce foreign women? However, the market situation of men in China remains to be considered.

The ratio of male to female in China is unbalanced.

Constant value of sex ratio at birth: 102- 107.

A large number of statistical data show that the sex ratio of babies born in all countries of the world is basically the same, which is generally within the range of 102-107, that is, the number of boys born is102-107 for every107 girl. Demographers call this index a constant value of the sex ratio at birth. Because the mortality rate of male children is slightly higher than that of female children, the ratio of male to female will be basically the same when they get married.

The sex ratio of babies born in China is 1 17: 100.

However, according to the fifth national census conducted by the China government in 2000, the sex ratio at birth in China is 1 17, that is, among the babies born, the sex ratio reaches 1 17: 100, which is much higher than1. According to the latest survey of China Statistics Bureau, the sex ratio of boys and girls is 1 12.8 100 in cities, 1 16.5 100 in towns and100 in rural areas.

The more children there are, the higher the sex ratio is.

According to a national statistic, in 2000, the sex ratio of one child was 107. 1, that of two children was 15 1.9, and that of three children was 159.4. According to a statistic in Hainan Province, the sex ratio at birth is 1 18.3 for one child, 1 19.4 for two children and 233.3 for three children. In other words, the more children there are, the more people choose to have boys. It is estimated that every time a new life is born in China, 2.5 babies are aborted. At least 30,000 fetuses miscarry every year because they are girls.

Gender Choice of Power and Money

Another phenomenon is that the higher social status and economic income, the higher the sex ratio of babies born. In the identification and selection of fetal sex, power, money and biotechnology were exchanged.

Hainan Province is one of the provinces with the most serious sex ratio imbalance in China, with the sex ratio at birth as high as 135.64: 100. In Hainan, the birth sex ratio of "clerks and related personnel" is170; The birth sex ratio of "professional technicians" is 221.7; The birth sex ratio of "heads of state organs, enterprises and institutions, and party-mass organizations" is 250.

The age gap between male and female spouses in China has increased.

At the recent Ninth National Women's Congress, Pan Guiyu, deputy director of the China Family Planning Commission, revealed that there are millions more boys than girls in the population under 0 in China/Kloc-0, and the gap is still widening. The marriage registration of the civil affairs department shows that the age gap between male and female spouses in China is increasing by 0.6 years every year.

Whose fault is it that there are more men than women?

Experts pointed out that there are many and complicated factors that affect the imbalance of sex ratio of newborn babies, such as birth policy, birth will, choice of artificial technical appraisal, omission and concealment of baby girls.

The fault of family planning?

Some people simply attribute the imbalance of sex ratio at birth to the implementation of the family planning policy of "promoting a couple to have only one child", which is biased. The more densely populated areas and provinces that strictly implement population control policies, the more obvious the increase in sex ratio at birth. Hainan, Guangxi and other provinces and cities where the sex ratio at birth is seriously unbalanced are precisely the places where family planning work is relatively backward, the fertility rate is high, and the birth rate of two children and many children is relatively large.

The fault of social management?

Social management factors mainly point out the omission and concealment of having children. This omission is caused by the lack of manpower, funds or poor management methods in family planning management and relevant departments. Both male and female babies have been omitted. However, concealment is caused by the influence of birth policy on women's and families' fertility wishes, and concealment is mainly caused by baby girls.

The fault of biotechnology?

This mainly refers to the use of medical technology such as B-ultrasound for selective abortion and induced labor, as well as the high mortality rate of baby girls and abandonment of babies.

Although the China government has clearly stipulated that it is forbidden to use ultrasonic means and selective abortion to select the sex of a baby. However, driven by high profits, many private doctors are still secretly providing fetal sex identification for pregnant women, and the cost can be as high as 1,000 yuan at a time. At the same time, in order to make huge profits, some hospitals, especially private clinics, ignored relevant laws and regulations, illegally conducted fetal sex identification, and artificially terminated pregnancy after the second trimester, which aggravated the increase of sex ratio.

The related departments of Hainan Province investigated the induced labor in Haikou and Sanya 12 hospitals in 2000, and found that 68% of them were girls and 32% were boys.

The fault of discriminating against women?

On the track of the rapid rise of the sex ratio at birth, the individual fertility rationality that conflicts with the social fertility rationality of gender balance is directly exposed, which is rooted in the realistic soil of women's survival and development conditions and men's inequality. The essence is that women's social status is low and their rights and interests are not well protected, which is a reflection of insufficient realization of gender equality.

In economic life, women's access to resources is still generally unfavorable, their income level is still generally low, and the protection of rights and interests is still generally weak;

In political life, women are still subject to great restrictions in the management of state and social affairs, especially in terms of participation in leadership, decision-making power, participation level, participation ratio and participation channels.

The weakness in economic and political life will naturally extend to all aspects of women's real family and social life.

There is a serious imbalance between men and women in rural areas. In rural areas, women's land rights and interests are often not guaranteed, which is one of the reasons why people want boys. China government stipulates in the Land Law that men and women enjoy equal rights and interests in land. However, due to the lack of specific rules and effective safeguards, and the tradition that women must live with their husbands after marriage, many rural women cannot get a share of the originally scarce land. In this way, families without boys will face the problem of lack of means of production. In addition, under the condition that the current rural social security system is not perfect, the parents of the only daughter family are facing the problem of providing for the aged.

Surplus of men leads to social problems.

If the abnormal increase of the sex ratio at birth continues, it will have a great negative impact on the population structure, and will also have a certain impact on the benign and stable operation of the future society and the social ethics system. At the same time, the imbalance between men and women will also bring a series of social problems, such as improper marriage, human trafficking, sexual barriers and so on, which will affect the stability of society, especially marriage.

50 million bachelors

In recent 20 years, the cumulative effect of the rising sex ratio at birth has appeared. According to the sex ratio at birth in 1990s, the number of men and women aged 0-20 is roughly equivalent to the population of three age groups aged 20, and the "cumulative effect" has been considerable. If we can't effectively curb the abnormally high sex ratio at birth, the marriage squeeze of male surplus will become more and more serious.

The loss of male population caused by wars in the former Soviet Union, Korea and other countries has had a very serious impact on the population structure of these two countries. Especially the marriage problem of marriageable population, it is even more difficult to coordinate.

In countries with relatively small population base, the shortage of female population can be solved through transnational marriage and female immigration. In China, a country with such a huge population base, it is difficult to find a way out by international immigration because of the shortage of female population.

There used to be a saying that the shortage of women could be solved by widening the marriage age difference. However, under the situation that the sex ratio of the baby population continues to rise, this structural and cumulative imbalance makes it difficult to imagine the feasibility of the solution that "the male population can find a spouse among the younger female population". Because the population conflict between the "big brother" group and the "little brother" group for spouses will become more and more fierce.

The crime rate is rising and the marriage relationship is unstable.

Marriage gender squeeze is an external influence on monogamous families. For some time, under the influence of the market economy and the "pan-commodity view" of exchange value appreciation, extramarital affairs and third parties have increased, the divorce rate has continued to rise, and the stability of traditional families has been threatened.

Social criminal cases have increased. If the rise of the sex ratio at birth is not corrected, these immoral and ugly social phenomena will breed more, and the basically disappeared buying and selling marriage, child marriage exchange and trafficking in women will resurface, which will indirectly lead to serious social problems such as sexual violence, incest and distorted social mentality, and the risk coefficient of family and social instability will increase.

Men rob women of their jobs, and employment pressure is great.

People are the unity of producers and consumers, and the increase of the sex ratio of the birth population will lead to the increase of the sex ratio of the working-age population, which will have a certain impact on production, exchange, distribution and consumption. It will become more difficult for men to find employment, and the male labor surplus and "employment gender squeeze" will become more serious in the next two decades. Some industries in which women have an absolute advantage in production, such as textiles and services, should not be undertaken only by men.

The number of widowed elderly women will decrease, and home-based care will increase.

Based on the characteristics of China's aging population and the reality of relatively backward social and economic development, we can only take the road of combining social pension, family pension and elderly workers' self-care. In view of the high sex ratio at birth at present, the low sex ratio of the elderly will increase in 40 years, the number of widowed elderly women will decrease, the position of family pension in the above-mentioned "three supports and one support" will be strengthened, and the ways of family pension will increase.

The population has shrunk severely.

More men and fewer women will bring serious obstacles to population reproduction and cause serious population shrinkage. Because the reproduction of the population is mainly achieved through the mother. The shrinking proportion of women in the social population will inevitably lead to the reduction of population reproduction capacity.