Will the wave of western populism become a burden to China?

In the past year, the "black swan" in the spotlight of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union and Trump's coming to power has stirred up the world stage. The democratic countries on both sides of the Atlantic have to admit that this era has entered the double limit of populism and "post-truth". Interestingly, these two words originally used to explain this chaotic world are themselves vague.

What are populism and "post-truth" politics? Do people have the ability to crush the illusion they bring? To this end, Phoenix. Com commented on the column "High Opinion" and interviewed John Keane, the famous political scientist and author of "Democracy in Life and Death".

Professor Keane is an Australian professor, and his special status gives him a broader vision when thinking about these issues. When it comes to populists, he will not stick to the two cases of Britain's withdrawal from the EU and Trump's coming to power like most experts, but will broaden the scope of his investigation to the Netherlands, Thailand, the Philippines, India and other places, and talk about Thaksin, Modi and Duterte ... After his analysis, you will find that the rise of populism in the world is not limited to the two sides of the Atlantic, but is fermented at the same time in places where the spotlight is rarely swept, such as the Netherlands.

Speaking of the resistance of these two trends, Professor Keane's keen observation is even more precious. He pointed out that the way to deal with populism is not in Britain or the United States, but in Barcelona today. Ada Kolo, the new mayor of Barcelona, has pointed out a clear path for the revival of democratic spirit and democratic system.

Professor Keane's other "feat" is that he single-handedly combed the whole development history of democracy in Democracy in Life and Death. So in the process of talking with him, he can always add a historical dimension to the problem. He believes that populism exists periodically and calls it a recurrent autoimmune disease of democracy. He will also tell you clearly how people dealt with demagogic populists in ancient Greece.

On the day of the interview, Professor Keane, who was in his 60s, wore a handsome black leather jacket with curly white hair on his head and a big smile. But seemingly relaxed, he is one of the most "real" intellectuals I have ever met. I was shocked when he told me not to believe what The New York Times called "reporting the truth". He constantly quoted Wittgenstein, Montaigne and others, trying to prove that truth is not important without truth. What really matters is people's judgment, and the duty of journalists is to make people make better judgments.

As a former BBC reporter, Professor Keane traveled to many countries in Western Europe and South America under the pseudonym of "Erica Blair" to interview dissidents and dictators. He always believed what George Orwell said: The reporter's duty is to poke his ass with a needle every time he meets an arrogant person, and try to make these arrogant people more humble. Like Orwell, Professor Keane also opposed the arrogance of power and totalitarianism. The most symbolic existence of this is that he has been reporting under the name of "Erica Blair", which is only one letter away from Orwell's original name.

Interviewer: John Keane, a famous contemporary political philosopher and professor of political science at the University of Sydney and Berlin Social Science Research Center. His major works include: Media and Democracy, Political Life: Pan En Biography, Reflection on Violence, Global Civil Society, Violence and Democracy, Democracy in Life and Death, etc. The Times listed Keane as one of the most outstanding thinkers and writers in Britain, and said that his works had "worldwide influence". Keane's research fields include: international politics, violence and democracy, public life and freedom of communication.

1. Is populism a "disease" of democracy?

Gao Jian: Professor Keane, thank you for your interview with Gao Jian. As we know, populism is a very general term, which can be matched with leftist, ultra-leftist, rightist and ultra-right ideologies. So, what is populism? Is it an ideology in itself?

John Keane: In fact, in our time, the existing democracy is experiencing the rebirth of a new type of populism. Populism is a political style, a public expression and a political form. Populist leaders and political parties often refer to the "people" and say, "We are acting in in the name of people!" In this sense, populism is a political style that attacks the establishment. New populism attacks established political parties, established governments and existing systems in the name of "people". It has a radical feeling, and it has a spirit of discontent.

I think populism is a completely democratic phenomenon. Populism speaks the language of the people. What is more democratic than speaking the people's language? It is also related to power sharing and electoral democracy. Populism will take advantage of freedom of assembly and election competition. Populists will find or set up their own political parties, hold public meetings, participate in and win elections.

Populism emphasizes that in today's era, many people are in a weak position, suffering from the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and the middle class is also disintegrating. In this sense, populism reminds people of the importance of equality in democratic countries.

If we make things very abstract, democracy is a regime, a way to deal with power, where the people are masters of their own affairs and the people have supreme power. What do populists say: the reality is very different. The people are squeezed, the people are lost, and the people are angered. They are dissatisfied with the political class and their lives have not improved.

Gao Jian: So, it is completely normal for populism to appear in a democratic society?

John Keane: In the history of democracy, populism exists periodically, which I call the recurrent autoimmune disease of democracy.

In Democracy in Life and Death, I pointed out that there are three stages of democracy in history. In the era of parliamentary democracy in the ancient Greek world, there were problems of populism and the danger of confusing people. Some people's leaders who will stir up trouble will appeal to the people and show them that they will turn democracy into autocracy.

Democratic countries have the technology to deal with this problem. The ancient Greek democratic countries held a vote once a year to decide who was the most popular politician, and then they forced that politician to leave the country 10, which was a way to prevent populism.

The second stage of democracy also experienced populism. For example, in the United States in the 19 era, or in the United States at the end of 19, populist parties were born. Now that we have a new populist face, populism will appear periodically in democratic countries.

Gao Jian: So, what caused this populist wave?

John Keane: There are several reasons for this new populism. First, it is related to economic stagnation. Unemployed, unable to find a job, the living standard of the middle class is declining, and the number of unemployed people is expanding ... Many young people only have part-time jobs, no future pension, no medical insurance and can't afford to buy a house. Think about the banking system that was on the verge of collapse in the Atlantic region in 2007-2008, and you will know that it is no accident that populism can expand at such an alarming rate.

But populism also has political reasons: dissatisfaction with established political parties. Sometimes these political parties are also called "cartel parties", that is, two or three political parties have been in power for half a generation. Some people are beginning to be dissatisfied with this political arrangement, and what populists do is to convince these people that it is necessary to change.

Third, cultural reasons. You know, populists are winning the support of social groups, those who feel that their lives are marginalized. For example, in the United States, Trump's core supporters are white. Most of them are Christians, middle class and working class. They can only speak English, not homosexuality. They feel that they are losing America, which is no longer their home. They think that there are too many China, Vietnamese, Latinos and blacks in the United States, and many people talk about the rights of ethnic minorities. They don't like it. Therefore, this is a cultural conflict.

When you associate economic stagnation with globalization, political dissatisfaction and cultural anxiety, you have a hotbed of populism.

Second, will populists calm down after taking power?

Gao Jian: How do populists inspire these motives?

Professor Keane: The "wisdom" of populists lies in their understanding of the reasons why millions of people are angered. They will win the support of these people with populist performance style. A democratic feature of populism is that it takes advantage of the new communication revolution: tweeting, Facebook, establishing online platforms and memes. It uses the new communication revolution to produce a political style, which I call "opposition performance", including Trump, Wilders of the Netherlands (leader of the Dutch Liberal Party), Nigel Farage of Britain (leader of the British Independence Party and an important promoter of Britain's withdrawal from the EU), Marin Le Pen of France (leader of the French far-right National Front), thaksin shinawatra of Thailand, Duterte of the Philippines and Modi of India.

Their behavior is very bad, and they will disrupt the established system with political style. This is very attractive to millions of people who like the rudeness and rudeness of these populists. They lie, talk nonsense and play clowns. They attracted millions of people because it was new to many people.

Gao Jian: As you mentioned, populists are anti-establishment, but what will happen after they come to power? Judging from the history of democracy, do you think they will establish new institutional mechanisms? Or will they make similar mistakes, just like the people they criticize?

John Keane: Almost every democracy has an interesting discussion, that is, will these populists calm down after being elected? Will they become normal? I think the evidence is that they didn't.

Modi pursued a radical political goal in India with in the name of people. He wants to turn India into a Hindu country, which is bad news for other ethnic minorities such as Muslims and Sikhs. During Britain's exit from the European Union, Theresa May's Conservative government was also absorbing the language and behavior of populists. They are ending their political, economic and legal relations with other EU countries, which is extreme.

If you look at Trump again, you will find that the Trump administration is crushing a large number of existing institutions. He dissolved the environmental protection agency, removed what they called federal department supervisory officials, and refused to appoint ambassadors to certain countries (48 ambassadorial positions are still vacant).

The success of the United States depends on a coherent government, and now Trump is sowing the seeds of chaos and confrontation. What I want to say is that populists are still not calm after taking power. They are dangerous to democracy, and they destroy the democratic system of power sharing.

High opinion: legally use systems and rules to take power, and then erode the democratic system. Some scholars say this is a sign of the retrogression of democracy. Do you agree?

John Keane: From now on, we can see that in practice, populism has brought destructive consequences to supervised democracy with power. All populism is developed by demagogues, and powerful leaders claim to be the voice of the people. The populist style needs strong leaders. Duterte, Trump, Theresa May ... Trump promised to "drain this swamp" (Washington used to be a swamp before the city was built, and "draining the swamp" means eliminating corruption), but please note that the cabinet he appointed has become a gathering place for millionaires and billionaires.

At the same time, populism is also exclusive, and some people who do not belong to the people are marginalized, which is a necessary feature of populism. So most populists don't like Muslims, homosexuals and ethnic minorities. Trump made it very clear that he often said: "I am serving the American people!" "No one can be a defender of the American people more than me!" But this means that some people do not belong to the "people".

All populists worship sovereign territorial countries, which is why they oppose globalization. That's why they are hostile to more immigrants, and that's why they are hostile to certain groups already in China.

Gao Jian: They are not very friendly to people who don't belong to their own group.

John Keane: This is another feature of populism: it has an aesthetic charm for violence. When Duterte talks about his war on drugs, you will feel that his populism tends to be violent, interested in violence and fascinated by violence. Trump gave a speech to the American Police Association. He advised the police not to be too nice. They should hit the head. During his campaign, whenever there were protesters, he would say, "Hit him in the face!" " ""kick his ass! "

These are the spirit and characteristics of populism, and they all have anti-democratic consequences. Populism is a child and a poison of democracy.

Third, the rise of western populism may become a burden to China.

Gao Jian: How to kill this poisonous fruit? Or how to prevent people from eating it?

John Keane: People have different reactions to this question. Some people think that populism will disappear, but I think it is impossible. Some people think that populism will have a positive impact. King reminded Americans that in the populist wave from 1870 to 1890, many people said that the United States was going to die.

However, Michael Card King pointed out that despite the undemocratic characteristics of populism at that time, the United States produced the greatest revolutionary progress at that time. 1920, women gained the right to vote. At that time, the eight-hour working day began to be realized. The construction of urban sewers, trams, public health systems and libraries are all products of populism.

Some people think that populism can only be defeated by violence or martial law. This is what happened in Thailand, and this is why Thaksin was defeated politically and institutionally. Others think that what we need is left-wing populism.

So, is there a non-populist political style? Can this new populism be defeated politically through non-populist democracy? I believe that the best weapon against populism is to defend the spirit and politics of power sharing, power review and power supervision institutions and prevent power abuse. In practice, populists need to be defeated through elections.

For example, it is necessary to defend the city and realize autonomous cities through a brand-new political style. We saw this in the election of Ada Kolo, the new mayor of Barcelona. She is not a populist. She believes that democracy has been kidnapped and the spirit and system of democracy need to be revived. This means reducing corruption, increasing the openness of the media, giving people more autonomy and strengthening supervision over those in power.

Gao Jian: What do you think the populist wave of globalization means to China?

John Keane: When China returned to the global stage and became an important global power, the democratic countries along the Atlantic coast were declining. Therefore, the combination of economic stagnation, political dissatisfaction and cultural anxiety means that almost all existing democratic countries are experiencing a profound crisis. At the same time, China is playing an increasingly important role in the international arena.

In this regard, politicians, intellectuals and citizens in China should pay attention to this macro-dynamic, because it may mean the further disintegration of capitalist democracy in the Atlantic region and other regions, which may have a negative impact on China.

Gao Jian: Why do you say that? Many people think that this is just a good opportunity for China.

John Keane: Because it will lead to chaos and possible violence, including the possibility of war. I think the most important thing for China is to pay attention to these developments. Understand the causes of populism, the meaning of populism, the democratic characteristics of populism and the pathological nature of populism. Because the rise of populism in the Atlantic region is an opportunity for China, but it may also become a burden for China.

Some roads must be taken, such as detours.