Migrant workers are not allowed to settle in cities. What is urbanization?

China is currently in the process of rapid industrialization, which provides a historic opportunity for a large number of rural population to transform into urban population (urbanization). At present, there are about 6,543.8+billion migrant workers working in cities, which seems to be completely in line with the law of rural labor force flowing to cities in the process of industrialization revealed by Lewis model. However, what is often overlooked is that in China, farmers' going to work in cities and the urbanization of rural population have completely different meanings. At present, a large number of migrant workers come to China every year, and at the same time, a large number of migrant workers return home. Migrant workers are just passers-by in the city, and the number of people who really take root in the city is limited, which undoubtedly deviates from the urbanization goal of China.

Analysis on the composition of migrant workers

Realizing urbanization and transferring farmers means that migrant workers who work in cities gradually integrate into cities and become citizens by participating in urban economic construction, and become an organic part of urban population, and finally cut off contact with land, thus reducing the absolute and relative amount of rural population. Because migrant workers in cities are a complex group, they can't settle down from reality. From the perspective of whether it is possible to become an urban population, we divide migrant workers into groups.

1. A few workers with good education, high quality, flexible mind, operational ability or certain venture capital. They are good at seizing opportunities and engaging in business activities independently, and many of them have succeeded in making their careers bigger. Some are employed by others, but with their own talents, they gradually emerge and become managers at all levels in the organization. These people are most likely to take root in cities. They can get a stable job with high income in the city, buy a house and buy their own property, and their children also go to public schools. In fact, they have become de facto citizens, but they have no urban hukou.

2. Floating population engaged in general business activities. They have certain skills, can use all kinds of resources, and have a strong ability to survive in urban gaps. Many of them are small traders and small business owners. They can't afford to buy a house in the city, but they can only rent a house, but they have strong viability. Some of them can earn a low standard of living for their whole family in the city. These floating population are more likely to become citizens. But whether they can finally take root in the city depends on a series of conditions. For example, can their children receive a better education in the city? If you receive a better education, you can go to college and have a stable job with higher income after graduation. For these people, relying on the second generation, they will even take root in the city. Like many immigrant families in China who went to the United States for development, their parents worked hard for their children's education and future, and finally settled in the United States.

3. Most migrant workers in cities are blue-collar workers who sell simple labor. They are mainly distributed in manufacturing, construction, mining and low-end service industries in the secondary industry, including coal delivery workers, restaurant waiters, nannies and other low-level workers. They are generally engaged in high-intensity, high-temperature, high-altitude, harmful and toxic industries and jobs that urban people do not want to do, with low income and unstable jobs; They usually lack labor insurance and social insurance, and as they get older, they face the risk of being fired. The phenomenon of 40-year-old migrant workers, which has aroused social concern, refers to this group of people. These people are the main body of urban migrant workers, with a large number, but the possibility of urbanization is very small. Because their income is too low, it is impossible to buy a house and pay higher rent, and it is difficult to maintain the low living expenses of themselves and their families in the city. The purpose of their coming to work in this city is to make money. The opportunity cost of coming to the city is very low, so they flow in in large quantities, but the possibility of settling in the city is very small. Therefore, they are the main body of returning migrant workers.

Migrant workers' urban-rural mobility

The real problem facing China's urbanization is that although there are more than 65438+ billion rural laborers working in cities, few of them can really stay. Migrant workers from China are different from those from other countries. In the process of urbanization in various countries, it is common for farmers to get married and go to cities with their children, because there are slums to live in, and China does not allow slums to exist, so it is very difficult for migrant workers to find suitable housing in cities. Therefore, it is usually young people who go to cities, leaving old people and children at home and working hard with their bare hands. Most people will go back when they make money. They migrate like migratory birds and return around the Spring Festival. In fact, the city has become a skill training base for migrant workers and a post station for their young life.

Therefore, these migrant workers are not really citizens. Although the migrant workers reflected in the statistical sense are included in the urban population, they only refer to the total number of this group staying in the city, not the specific population that has been internalized. Hundreds of millions of migrant workers are just passers-by wandering in the city. Migrant workers in cities are like a huge reservoir, with one end flowing in and the other end flowing out. Every year, new people join and a large number of skilled workers leave. The migrant workers who stay in the pool are always in their prime. Therefore, this can not really reduce the rural population significantly, nor is it urbanization in the true sense. In the past, we usually paid attention to the influence of household registration system on urbanization, but the above analysis shows that household registration is not particularly important, but the ability to survive in the city is important.

The Influence of Migrant Workers' Returning Home on Urbanization

The return of a large number of migrant workers is contrary to the goal of urbanization in China. Urbanization requires migrant workers to settle in cities, but the reality is that such settlement is almost impossible for most migrant workers. This means that China may not be able to complete the established urbanization task. According to196, the People's Republic of China (PRC) Report on the Development of Human Settlements submitted by the government of China to the second United Nations Conference on Human Settlements predicts that by 20 10, the urban population of China will reach about 630 million and the urbanization level will reach 45%. Since various economic, institutional and social factors determine that most migrant workers must choose to return home eventually, urbanization is nothing more than appearance. The size of the reservoir for migrant workers in cities determines the number of migrant workers in cities, and the size of the reservoir is determined by the speed and requirements of economic development. Once the economic growth slows down and the reservoir stops expanding, the so-called urbanization growth will stop. Therefore, China's huge rural population will not really decrease in the process of industrialization like other countries, but will remain for a long time. The process of urbanization in China may take longer than we planned.

Migrant workers can't settle in cities, which is not conducive to the expansion of urban industrial products market. This flow pattern of migrant workers will further widen the gap between urban and rural areas. Cities intercept migrant workers' labor at the best age, and rural areas bear the cost of training and providing for the aged. This is the same as the scissors difference of industrial and agricultural products before the reform and the land acquisition after the reform, and it is also a value transfer from rural areas to cities. Migrant workers have contributed their best years to cities, which not only further widened the gap between urban and rural areas, but also took away the skills and experience accumulated by groups of returning migrant workers, which is also a loss to the formation of industrial workers.

This flow pattern of migrant workers may also have a positive side. China's rural development path is probably different from other countries. With the complete departure of the young and middle-aged population, the rural areas of other countries are gradually dying out, and China may maintain a gradually improved rural area. Returning migrant workers can use the skills they have mastered in cities to start businesses in rural areas. Migrant workers work hard for several years to earn some money and go back to their hometown to set up factories and shops, which not only means that farmers' personal employment is no longer subject to people, but also may promote the development of rural economy and small towns. Although the rural progress brought by this process is slow, it will definitely happen. Small towns are likely to eventually become the typical road of urbanization in China. If so, we need to re-formulate the rural development strategy, which is a new issue worth discussing. (The author is Professor university of international business and economics)