What is the impact of RMB appreciation on China's import and export?

The impact of RMB appreciation on China's import and export is as follows:

I. Positive impact

1. Expand domestic consumers' demand for imported products and gain more benefits.

The most obvious change brought by the appreciation of RMB to domestic consumers is that the RMB in hand is "more valuable". If you study or travel abroad, you will spend less money than before. In other words, spending the same money can make you do more things than before. If you buy imported cars or other imported products, you will find that their prices have become "cheap" and ordinary people have gained more benefits.

2. Reduce the cost burden of imported energy and raw materials.

China is a country lacking in resources. With the increase of international energy and raw material prices, domestic enterprises are bound to bear more and more heavy cost burden. In 2004, the average price of refined oil imported from China increased by 30.8% compared with 2003, steel increased by 43.7%, copper increased by 50.4%, and iron ore increased by 1 times.

The rising prices of imported energy and raw materials will not only raise the prices of the whole basic means of production, but also devour the profits of enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, making their profitability decline or even lose money. If the RMB appreciates to a reasonable level, it will greatly reduce the burden of importing energy and raw materials in China, and enable domestic enterprises to reduce costs and enhance their competitiveness.

3. Use the "reverse mechanism" to promote the adjustment of China's industrial structure and improve China's position in the international division of labor.

For a long time, China relied on the expansion of cheap labor-intensive products to implement the export-oriented strategy, which made the export structure not optimized for a long time and made China play the role of "world wage earners" in the international division of labor.

Appropriate appreciation of RMB will help export enterprises to improve their technical level and product grade, thus promoting the adjustment of China's industrial structure and improving China's position in the international division of labor.

4. It helps to ease the relationship between China and its major trading partners.

In view of the rapid development of China's export trade and the increasing trade surplus, China's major trading partners have repeatedly demanded RMB appreciation. In this regard, simply saying "no" seems encouraging, but it doesn't help. Because this will continue to worsen China's relations with them and set obstacles for China's foreign trade and economic development.

In recent years, the sharp increase of anti-dumping cases against China is a very convincing evidence. A proper appreciation of RMB will not only help to ease the relationship between China and its major trading partners, reduce economic and trade disputes, but also help to establish a good international image of China as a big country.

5. It will help to reduce the threat of "foreign exchange holdings" to the independence of China's monetary policy.

Since the unification of 1994, there have been a large number of "double surpluses", which have led to the high foreign exchange reserves in China and seriously damaged the independence of China's monetary policy. Therefore, an appropriate appreciation of RMB can be closer to the market exchange rate level and alleviate the adverse effects of foreign exchange holdings.

Second, the negative impact.

1 will have an impact on Chinese export enterprises, especially labor-intensive enterprises.

In the international market, the export price of China products, especially labor-intensive products, is far lower than that of similar products in other countries. The reason is that China's labor price is low, and the fierce domestic competition makes export enterprises compete to adopt the strategy of selling at a low price and paying no expense.

Once the RMB appreciates, in order to keep the bottom line of RMB price unchanged, the price of China's export products in foreign currency will increase and weaken its price competitiveness; If the foreign currency price of export products remains unchanged, it will inevitably squeeze the profit space of export enterprises and have an impact on export enterprises, especially labor-intensive enterprises.

2. It is not conducive to the introduction of foreign direct investment in China.

China is the country that attracts the most foreign direct investment in the world. At present, foreign-funded enterprises are playing a more and more obvious role in China's industry, agriculture, service industry and other fields, which has a great impact on promoting technological progress, increasing employment and expanding exports, thus promoting the development of the entire national economy.

The appreciation of RMB will not have a substantial impact on foreign investors who have already invested in China, but it will have a negative impact on foreign investors who are about to invest in China, because it will increase their investment costs. In this case, they may transfer their investment to other developing countries.

The huge foreign exchange reserves will face the threat of shrinking.

At present, China's foreign exchange reserves are as high as US$ 2,454.3 billion, ranking first in the world. Adequate foreign exchange reserves are an important symbol of China's growing economic strength and improving the level of opening up to the outside world, and also a powerful guarantee for us to promote domestic economic development and participate in foreign economic activities.

Extended data:

Benefits of RMB appreciation

1, more free and easy and confident when consuming luxury goods.

The appreciation of RMB means that China people's wallets are "bulging". Because the same is 1000 US dollars, 20 12 years spent about 6349 yuan, and now, 6 102 yuan can be exchanged for the same amount of US dollars. In this way, when buying luxury goods abroad, the spending power of equivalent RMB has been greatly improved.

Traveling abroad is not so far away.

In 20 14, about 620,000 Australian tourists visited China. China has become Australia's second largest tourist source country and the fastest growing and most valuable tourist market. Tourism Australia predicts that more than 900,000 Australian tourists will visit China in 2020. Li Ming, a tourist from Wuhan, said that the increasingly "valuable" RMB is one of the driving forces to stimulate his outbound travel.

3. Reduce the economic pressure of studying abroad.

4. Reduce the cost of imported goods from China.

With the rapid economic growth and industrial upgrading, China needs to buy a lot of energy (such as oil and natural gas), raw materials (such as iron ore), advanced equipment and various advanced technologies from abroad every year, and most of these goods are denominated in US dollars in the international market. After the appreciation of RMB, the above commodities will become more "cheap", which will effectively reduce the import cost of China.

5. Reduce the pressure on China to repay its foreign debt.

Since the reform and opening up, China has borrowed a lot of foreign debts in order to speed up its economic development. According to the data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China on April 3rd, as of the end of 20 12 and 12, China's foreign debt balance was 736.986 billion US dollars (excluding the external liabilities of Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR and Taiwan Province Province).

In 20 12, the proportion of China's short-term foreign debt to foreign exchange reserves was 16.33%, the debt ratio was 8.96%, the debt ratio was 32.78%, and the debt service ratio was 1.62%, all of which were within the internationally recognized safety line. After the appreciation of RMB, it will alleviate the pressure of repaying foreign debts in China to some extent.

6. Improve the overseas M&A capabilities of China enterprises.

In recent decades, the trend of global economic integration has become more and more obvious. In order to achieve better development, China enterprises must resolutely implement the strategy of "going out", and the most convenient way of "going out" is to acquire foreign enterprises. In fact, many enterprises in China are successful.

For example, at 20 15 and 10, Shuanghui acquired Smithfield, the world's largest pork supplier. Obviously, after the appreciation of RMB, China enterprises will be more competitive in overseas mergers and acquisitions.

7. Drive the rise of China stock market.

The currency appreciation of a country (region) should be substantially beneficial to its stock market. Because this will make commodities denominated in local currency, such as stocks, more valuable for investment, thus attracting a large number of overseas funds to invest in the stock market, and ultimately driving the stock market to rise.

After the currency appreciation of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province Province of China in 1980s, the stock markets of these three places experienced a bull market for more than ten years.

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