Reading Notes｜In times of crisis, stay independent and sober

I read the first book related to wealth management in 2022, which introduced me to the investment world of investor Jim Rogers.

In the process of reading, I was amazed countless times by Rogers's wide knowledge, clear logic, and profound insights. His world view and investment outlook impressed me.

01 When prosperity begins, it must end

Rogers mentioned many times in the book that bubbles cannot last forever and will inevitably burst; prosperity has Once it begins, there must be an end. This is an objective law and does not depend on human will. Just like the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008 and the economic bubble in Japan, a fatal crisis has long been buried behind the prosperity that makes people indulge in wealth and wealth, and it is about to burst. There is a certain cycle in the development of anything. As the saying goes, "If things are divided for a long time, they must be combined, and if they are combined for a long time, they must be divided." Once you reach the peak, you can only go downhill. Therefore, when everyone is fanatical, we must be vigilant, because maybe one day the prosperity will disappear, because this is an inevitable event.

02 All common sense must be overturned every fifteen years

The common sense that everyone thought was correct in 1930 had undergone earth-shaking changes in 1945, because the second World War II has arrived. After the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, and the Soviet Union disintegrated two years later, it seemed that capitalism was superior to socialism. However, 15 years later, capitalism was experiencing a severe debt crisis, and a financial tsunami was waiting for an opportunity to erupt. There is an old saying that goes, "Ten years to the east of the river, ten years to the west of the river." The ups and downs are changing, and the only constant in the world is that it is always changing. Whether it is a country or an individual, if we remain stubborn and unchanging, we will eventually retreat instead of advancing and be submerged by the torrent of the times.

03 Don’t do it if you are not familiar with it, research is the basis of all investments

Don’t do it if you are not familiar with it, this is an investment principle of Mr. Rogers. He has traveled around the world, to Europe, Asia, Africa, and now lives in Singapore. He saw the arrogance of European and American countries, the development potential of China and Russia, and the turmoil and crisis in the Middle East. Everything was based on in-depth research. Our great man Mao Zedong once said, "Without investigation, there is no right to speak." Investigation is the closest way to the truth. Therefore, no matter whether we are professional investors or not, we must find investment targets that we understand, and the prerequisite for understanding is study and research. We should not follow what others say and follow the crowd.

04 History and philosophy are the underlying logic of investment

Mr. Rogers repeatedly mentioned that studying history and philosophy at Yale University and Oxford University was of great help to his investment career. Indeed, history is always surprisingly similar. "By using history as a mirror, we can know the ups and downs." Understanding history can let you know what kind of people thought, did and what results they got in different events; it will also give you more insight and sensitivity into world affairs, and understand that some things are The general trend is the general trend, and you can face the strong winds and waves calmly. And philosophy will tell us why we do what we do, give us the correct motivations for our thinking and behavior, and allow us to achieve safe success.

Investment is a very complex matter, which is a fusion of finance, economics, history, philosophy, psychology and other disciplines. Investment cannot rely on others. We need to keep awake and thinking through continuous learning to earn the money we deserve.

I particularly recommend this book "The Age of Crisis". I think I will read it several times.