Can the market value surpass Toyota in just 17 years? Tell me how Tesla did it.

[car home New Energy]? Super broadcast, every week. This week, the most eye-catching focus of the car circle happened in the other half of the world. With the opening of the US stock market on Wednesday, Tesla's share price once rose above 1 1,000 USD/share, and its market value further climbed. Before the closing of the US stock market that day, the market value of Tesla Motors had surpassed that of Toyota, becoming the "top spot" among global auto companies. Then, is the company able to become a temple-level automobile enterprise because of the fuel of the times or because of the fruitful results of Musk's operation? Today, we will use this topic to talk to you about Tesla, a new giant in the automobile industry that seems to be "the sword is biased" but has successfully led.

Tesla's performance this week is not only outstanding in stock price and market value. In the recently released sales ranking of new energy passenger cars in May, Tesla's Model 3 likes to mention "top brand", which also proves the strength of this young brand from another side. In the second half of the article, let's review the recent sales of new energy passenger cars and dig out some bright spots.

Looking back on the performance of Tesla in the stock market this year, its market value has been increasing: at the beginning of 2020, the market value of Tesla exceeded the sum of Ford Motor Company and General Motors; By the end of 2020, 65438+ 10, Tesla's market value surpassed Volkswagen and became the second highest car company in the world. Only five months later, on Wednesday, June 10, local time in the United States, Tesla once again ushered in a milestone moment-the stock price broke through 1000 USD/share, and its market value surpassed that of Toyota, becoming the car company with the highest market value in the world.

Then, a year ago, there were many problems with car companies questioned by a large number of evaluation companies, and the stock price once fell from more than 300 dollars to 176 dollars. How did salted fish turn over or even surpass Toyota? In fact, we still have to start with a series of major decisions made by Tesla this year.

When elon musk and Tesla CFO announced Tesla's next-generation super factory Terafactory at the Tesla financial report conference in Q 1 in 2020, it may be one of the major decisions that continue to affect the new energy automobile industry. And the next generation super factory, its production capacity is 30 times that of Gigafactory now. From the naming of the factory, we can actually see the clue. Giga in Gigafactory comes from GWh (gigawatt-hour, which refers to a super battery factory with a capacity of 654.38+00,000 kWh. Tera in Terafactory comes from TWh(Tera Watt-hour), which refers to a super battery factory with a production capacity of 1 100 million kWh. It is hard to imagine whether Tesla has established a huge "electric car empire" after the completion of this new generation of super factories in the future.

In fact, the capacity problem of power battery has been puzzling Tesla, making it unable to expand rapidly. Similarly, this has also prevented the company from launching products equipped with larger capacity power batteries, such as Semi, a pure electric truck that has repeatedly skipped tickets and delayed delivery. After all, the current power battery capacity is only about 1 1 day for the entire Tesla product line. If Semi equipped with large-capacity power battery is put into production, Tesla's power battery may be in short supply, which will seriously affect the off-line and delivery of passenger cars. This also made Tesla's requirements for the battery factory further improved, so the construction plan of Terafactory was born. When the new generation super factory is completed, Tesla will undoubtedly enter a relatively comfortable development period.

In addition, the commissioning of the Shanghai plant and the construction of the Berlin plant in Germany are also affecting Tesla's position in the whole industry. In this global automobile industry recession, all automobile companies are shrinking, and the company is still expanding and deploying globally. In May this year, the Tesla Berlin factory started construction, and in June, the main structure of the second phase of the Shanghai factory was capped, and the layout decision was made decisively and quickly. No car companies are doing this at present. Looking at the global layout of the company, these two factories located in the European continent and the Asian continent are undoubtedly two very important pieces.

Then, in terms of global production capacity, after the completion of the production line expansion, the total production capacity of California factories Model 3 and Model Y will reach 500,000 units, the production capacity of Model S and Modle X will be 90,000 units, and the total production capacity of its American factories will be 590,000 units. The Shanghai plant is responsible for the first phase of the domestic Model 3 plant, with an annual production capacity of 65,438+00-65,438+05 million vehicles; The second phase of planned production of domestic Model Y will also provide Tesla with an annual production capacity of 65,438+00-65,438+05,000 vehicles when it is completed by the end of 2020. The Berlin plant in Germany is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 10-150,000 Model Y. Therefore, in 2022, Tesla's three factories around the world will have an annual production capacity of more than1000,000. Although there is still a big gap with Toyota in global production capacity, it has shown a catching-up trend.

There is also intelligence, especially the autonomous driving business, which has always been one of Tesla's core businesses. At present, the company's achievements in autonomous driving are attributed to Andrej Capassi, the senior director of artificial intelligence of Tesla, who is known as the soul of autonomous driving. The Tesla Autopilot full-stack deep neural network he developed completely changed the essence of software, making it a program that can "learn and use tools" like human beings, rather than just judging conditions through a written program.

How much does this affect the safety and reliability of autonomous driving? Before there was no deep neural network, the autopilot system could not only judge various preset conditions written by engineers, but also rely on high-precision maps to realize the basic conditions for autonomous vehicles, and the update and maintenance of high-precision maps is an extremely expensive investment. This is also one of the reasons why Volkswagen has formed an alliance with auto giants such as Ford, Mercedes-Benz and BMW in the field of autonomous driving: relying on the traditional software engineering route to build autonomous driving, its comprehensive investment has greatly exceeded the ability of a company to go online, and industry giants are no exception.

When the deep neural network appeared, the "manual design" link of self-driving cars based on this software technology was greatly reduced or completely removed, and the original data of sensors and vehicles were directly input into the deep neural network, and the results were directly output to actuators such as acceleration, steering and braking mechanisms through the neural network. The experience output by the system is closer to people's driving habits. This also eliminates the need for huge funds and teams in the R&D process, which is why Tesla can develop an iterative autopilot system "single-handedly".

In addition, Musk's success in other fields has also brought him some chain effects of "protagonist aura". In particular, the latest manned dragon spacecraft of Space Exploration Technology Company was successfully launched at launch pad 39A of Kennedy Space Center. Under the eyes of the global audience, it carried two astronauts and a dinosaur doll to the International Space Station. Although it is nothing new to send humans out of the earth in the development of human space today, Space Exploration Technology Company is the first commercial private space company, and Musk rewrote this history. This feat also affected the image of all the companies he led in the public mind, including Tesla.

Although Tesla is not as good as Toyota in production and sales at present, its comprehensive strength, including global strategic layout, technology research and development and even Musk's success in other fields, is a catalyst to help the company climb the throne of the world's most valuable car company.

Hypercast comments:

Evaluating Musk with a joke can be said to be "a CEO who doesn't want to go to space, not a good car owner". Of course, this sentence is just to adjust the atmosphere. After all, not everyone holds the great dream of "Mars Migration Plan". Look ahead. However, Musk also played a more active role for Tesla. After all, he was far-sighted in building a battery factory, but his decision was also bold. After all, in the current global market, he has not reached the turnover of 1TWh. However, due to the consideration of future market strategy, Musk chose to plan ahead. As for the development direction of the core business, Tesla has also grasped it very accurately and found a suitable route in the direction of autonomous driving, which has also laid a solid foundation for it to become the world's number one car company in just over ten years.

According to the certificate production data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the output of new energy passenger cars in May 2020 was 67,352, down 30% year-on-year, mainly due to the sluggish automobile market. It rose by 4% from the previous month. As can be seen from this data, with the gradual easing of the national epidemic, various car companies have resumed production one after another, which also reflects the signs of a slight recovery in the market. In the data ranking, Tesla Model 3 ranks first with the score of 1. 1.0000, which is more than twice that of the second-ranked Guangzhou Automobile New Energy Aion S, and the gap is very wide.

Guangzhou automobile new energy Aion S (aion s)

2558

2400

2243

With the resumption of Tesla's Shanghai factory, the production of domestic Model 3 began to resume, and some undelivered orders were accumulated in the previous shutdown stage, so Tesla raised the production rhythm of the factory to a high load state, which also created the proud results of 1 1499 vehicles in May. And its number also exceeds the sum of the second to fourth places in May. It can be restored to a relatively high production capacity in a short time, and it can also be seen that Tesla must have its own uniqueness in management. In fact, this also laid the foundation for the company to surpass Toyota in market value.

In addition, from the data point of view, the output of pure electric vehicles still accounts for the vast majority, which is still related to the influence of policies. However, with the release of the new subsidy policy in April 2020, in order to keep the price of their products at the original level, various car companies have launched insurance plans to stimulate production and sales. Judging from these insurance policies listed above, combined with the output in May, some models did enter the top ten, which still had certain effects.

However, car companies that have taken relatively effective measures have to look to Tesla. One week after the announcement of the new subsidy policy, in order to cooperate with the new policy of "products with a price of over 300,000 yuan do not enjoy any subsidy", the base price of the domestic upgraded Model 3 was directly adjusted to 29 1.800 yuan, and the subsidy price calculated according to this base price was 27 1.550 yuan. This price adjustment has indeed seen a very significant effect on the output in May.

It is not difficult to see from the list that the new forces of car-making are still in good momentum, with Weilai ES6, Weimar EX5 and Li ONE occupying three seats on the list. This also reflects from the side that the products of the new forces of making cars have a good performance in market acceptance.

Hypercast comments:

Although we have found some clues from the output data, the new energy vehicle market is gradually picking up, but due to the influence of the market environment, the whole is still in a very depressed state. But Tesla still maintains a high production level, which is of course closely related to its order volume and overall strength. (Text/car home Xu Bo)