20 12 Influencing Factors of French Presidential Election

Economic problems: Affected by the global financial crisis and implicated by the European debt crisis, the French economy is already very fragile. First of all, the unemployment rate is high, and the number of unemployed people has reached a record high since 12. Second, the banking industry is in jeopardy. Third, the trade deficit hit a record high.

Immigration: The French government has always advocated the policy of * * * and assimilation to immigrants, which has increased the distrust of the government by the vast majority of immigrants. After Sarkozy came to power, the right-wing forces rose, advocated racism and strengthened anti-immigration policies, all of which increased the social rift in France.

Social stratum: At present, French society can be roughly divided into three groups and five subgroups: the first group is enterprising people who adapt to change. The second group, with the largest number, is a conservative isolationist. The third group thinks they are victims of the globalization crisis and Sarkozy's reform.

Diplomatic issues: During Sarkozy's presidency, he tried to take the lead among many countries and carry out France's consistent pursuit of great power status, but there are still criticisms in China that his related efforts have not achieved results. Impact on the economy:

France is in recession, and Sarkozy's drastic cuts in public spending cannot be supported.

The French economy is currently in recession, with an economic growth rate of less than 1%, far lower than that of neighboring Germany, and the unemployment rate is close to 10%. Last year, the sovereign rating was downgraded, so the economic issues of the two candidates have attracted much attention from the market. Generally speaking, France is in a period of economic recession. Sarkozy's right-wing camp has always been known for its distinctive economic measures and is more likely to be recognized by voters. However, Hollande's socialist party lacks clear and effective ideas in economic management and has no advantage in economic concepts. The French economy is now in the stage of reform, but Sarkozy's drastic reduction of public expenditure has not been supported by the French people. Hollande took the lead in the primary election, mainly because of the current psychological state of the French people.

There is no difference between Sarkozy and Hollande's economic ideas, but more to please voters.

At present, there is no obvious difference between the two factions' economic propositions, but there are differences in details. For example, after the election, both parties indicated that they would strengthen tax enforcement. Sarkozy pushed for a financial tax, while Hollande said that he would levy a tax of up to 75% on people with an annual income of over one million. During the economic recession, increasing taxes will only reduce the vitality of the economy, but the current situation of the French economy has not left much room for the rulers. The current economic policies of both sides are more to please voters.

If Hollande is elected, it will have a certain impact on Europe; Sarkozy's re-election is difficult to change the dominant situation in Germany.

If Hollande is elected in the second round of general election on May 6, it will have a certain impact on the current stability in Europe. Hollande has publicly stated that he will propose to renegotiate the "financial contract" proposed by France and Germany. The full name of "Financial Contract" is "European Economic and Monetary Union Stability, Coordination and Governance Convention", which mainly strengthens the financial discipline of EU member states through automatic punishment mechanism and other provisions. Financial contract plays a very important role in maintaining the stability of the current debt crisis. Even if Sarkozy continues to be in power, it will be difficult to maintain the status quo that European economic policy is dominated by Germany in the future. As the first and second economies in the euro zone, once there are differences between France and Germany, it will be a fatal blow to the stability of the euro zone. Therefore, he believes that the economies of France and the euro zone will face difficulties in the future.

Impact on Europe:

Hollande opposes EU financial integration, and if elected, it will have an impact on the whole of Europe.

According to the current opinion polls, francois hollande, a traditional left-wing socialist, is likely to beat Sarkozy, the defending president and the traditional right-wing candidate, in the second round and become the fifth and new French president. As France is still in the midst of the European debt crisis that broke out on June 5438+ 10, 2009, especially because of Hollande's series of remarks on crisis resolution policies, this French election has attracted great attention from other European countries including German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Merkel and Sarkozy have interacted frequently in recent months, and they are basically in step with each other in their policies to solve the crisis. However, at the EU leaders' summit in June 5438+February last year, after Merkel and Sarkozy vigorously promoted the conclusion of an intergovernmental treaty between EU member States aimed at strengthening fiscal discipline and avoiding the recurrence of the debt crisis, Hollande repeatedly said that if elected, he would demand renegotiation of the fiscal agreement, saying "because this is not the only way to solve the crisis". This is tantamount to throwing cold water on the efforts of EU leaders who are committed to pushing the euro zone towards fiscal union. In this sense, the influence of this French presidential election has surpassed that of France, and in a sense, it may also profoundly affect the future of the euro zone and even Europe.

Once Hollande, who has never been in politics, comes to power, Europe's future policy is more uncertain.

Merkel is worried about another reason: Hollande has never held an important position in the government, and has never participated in the administration except as a "home" in the French Socialist Party. In his remarks about European construction and crisis management, Hollande rarely has clear and powerful feasible plans, but there are many "empty words" that have strong impact and attract the attention of the media and the public. In other words, they think that once this person comes to power, the policy about the future of Europe will be "uncertain". This is a risk that European leaders are unwilling to take. Among the castles in the air built by Hollande's election language, the most striking thing is his proposal to increase the personal income tax rate of the rich with an annual income of more than 6.5438+0 million euros to 75%. Of course, compared with another platform put forward by Jean-Luc Melenchon, who came from the traditional left wing but now provoked the banner of "extreme left", such as "raising the minimum wage to 1700 euros, taxing all those who earn more than 350,000 euros a year, and levying welfare fees on all necessities such as water and electricity for the poor", Hollande's "castle in the air" seems not so far away from the ground.

No matter who is elected, Brussels, Berlin and even London will face trouble.

Sarkozy has said that France will cut its share in the EU budget, which means that the debate on British kickbacks will be staged again. More importantly, Sarkozy called for a Europe that "protects" its citizens. His implication is clearly that Europe's crisis response measures should include raising barriers against immigration and foreign competition. France currently supports measures to prohibit foreign enterprises from obtaining public contracts unless the countries where these enterprises are located provide reciprocal market access. Sarkozy also said that if the Schengen agreement is not revised within one year, France will unilaterally withdraw from it. As far as the larger goal of protecting the European market is concerned, it will be even more threatening if France is determined to promote this goal. Once France decides to adopt European policy, they seldom flinch. Therefore, no matter who wins the election in May, Brussels, Berlin and even London will face trouble. The European Commission will not like this protectionist impulse. Germany will strongly resist any attempt to amend the fiscal agreement or interfere with the functions and powers of the European Central Bank. And all the important candidates' plans will not make the British happy.