What impact does the US election trend have on the economy?

20 16 American general election is the first election that produced a new president since the 2008 financial crisis, and it is also a re-examination of American political and economic policies and their consequences. Hillary Clinton, the most likely winner of the Democratic Party, still faces many constraints, such as the continuity of Obama's policy, the "mail door" incident and her strong rival Sanders. * * * and Trump, who is the most likely to win the victory in the party, hold multiple positions on policy issues, and at the same time hold extreme tendencies on immigration and counter-terrorism, but they have aroused the resentment of the party and some voters. In terms of foreign policy, Hillary Clinton is more likely to continue Obama's current diplomatic strategy, but will also appropriately adjust foreign policy orientations including Middle East affairs, US-Israel relations, and US-Russia relations. * * * And the party camp will change Obama's Middle East policy and defend Israel's rights and interests. Judging from the overall situation of election development, the 20 16 general election was obviously influenced by the following environment, namely, the internal and external situation of the United States in the post-financial crisis period and Obama's political legacy under the restriction of the presidential political cycle.

Because the domestic economic policies of the United States are extremely important in previous presidential elections, we make a simple comparison between the economic policies of the two candidates. Hillary elaborated her economic policy from three angles: strong growth, fair growth and long-term growth.

First, she wants to achieve strong growth through the following measures: investing in infrastructure construction, clean energy, scientific and medical research; Reduce the tax burden of small enterprises and working families; Improve the labor participation rate, especially women's labor participation rate, expand employment opportunities and increase wages.

Secondly, in realizing fair growth, the main considerations are: encouraging enterprises and employees to share profits, on the one hand, improving employees' wages, benefits and productivity, on the other hand, enterprises can get 15% tax credit; Propose to raise the federal minimum wage to 12 USD/hour, and encourage states to raise the minimum wage according to actual conditions; Fix the loopholes in the tax system and ensure that the rich pay enough taxes. Finally, in terms of long-term growth, she hopes to end short-term behavior through the following schemes: encouraging enterprises to make long-term considerations for employees and their own long-term development in terms of salary and training, rather than focusing only on short-term interests; Encourage sustainable enterprises by raising capital gains tax.

Hillary hopes to prevent the recurrence of the economic crisis by avoiding risks as early as possible: for example, financial institutions need to pay a risk fee according to their scale and risk level; Limit the high investment of banks in hedge funds by perfecting Volcker's law; The income or loss obtained through financial institutions is directly linked to the personal bonus of its executives; By giving regulators more power, prevent the situation of "too big to fail"; Increase a tax on high-frequency transactions that are harmful to the financial market and change the rules to make the trading market more fair, open and transparent.

She has the following views on Wall Street's accountability system: when there is fraud in financial institutions, the Ministry of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission are given the right to directly sue the principal responsible persons of financial institutions; When a financial institution violates regulations and needs to pay a fine, the person directly responsible needs to pay the corresponding share from the personal salary. In addition, enterprises will also face high fines to prevent similar violations from happening again.

Trump does not have a complete and systematic economic policy at present, but is based on topical remarks. Economic-related topics mainly focus on tax reform, Sino-US trade war and US-Mexico trade war:

First, in terms of tax reform, the middle class (the annual income of individuals is less than $25,000 or the annual income of couples is less than $50,000, and there is no need to pay taxes) is reduced; Simplify tax collection procedures; Tax reduction for enterprises of all sizes and categories, up to 15%, so as to keep these enterprises in the United States and increase employment opportunities for Americans; Avoid continuing to increase national debt.

Second, in the Sino-US trade war, China was publicly declared as a trade manipulator; Emphasize the protection of intellectual property rights in the United States, and prevent China from gaining market access by demanding the sharing of the core content of the science and technology industry; In order to prevent China from illegally subsidizing export trade, Trump decided to bring more employment opportunities to the United States in this way; Reduce corporate income tax in the United States, thus preventing American companies from outsourcing factories and jobs to China.

Third, in the US-Mexico trade war, Trump believes that illegal immigrants from Mexico take away American jobs on the one hand, and remit the earned dollars back to Mexico on the other hand, with an average of $24 billion per year. Therefore, several schemes are put forward to stop this situation: asking remittance agencies (such as Western Union) to check the legal identity of the remitter; Ask the Mexican government to pay the cost of the US-Mexico border fence; If the Mexican government does not agree, the United States will impose trade sanctions on Mexico; Cancel the immigrant visa or increase the visa fee.

Judging from the polls, Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party is slightly better than Trump of the party, and the final result of the election is undecided. The interweaving of political and economic hotspots in the United States has brought potential impacts to the United States and even the global economy. Politically, who can win the presidential election will have a far-reaching impact on the domestic and international situation in the United States. Since Obama of the Democratic Party took office, the deep-seated contradictions in the United States have not been effectively resolved. The struggle between the two parties intensified, and Congress "vetoed politics" rose. The economic recovery in the United States is slow, and the economic recovery cycle is more than seven years. The noise about recession is getting louder and louder. Social problems such as immigration, gun control, abortion and legalization of same-sex marriage are constantly causing controversy, and racial contradictions and terrorism are on the rise.

Compared with the pressure of domestic political and economic environment, the US government still tries its best to maintain the so-called "global leadership" in the international arena, constantly strengthens the Asia-Pacific strategy, realizes the resumption of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba, and urges the Iranian nuclear deal. However, in the face of the rising terrorist threats such as the Syrian issue and the Islamic State (IS), the Obama administration has chosen a cheap balance of "not doing stupid things" and cannot convince the international community.

According to the Pew poll, at least 60% of the Americans surveyed are not optimistic about the current development direction of the United States, and believe that the first problems that the country urgently needs to change are roughly the economy and employment, counter-terrorism, medical reform, immigration and foreign policy. This means that voters still have a strong expectation of change in this election, and these primary issues they are concerned about also need to be seriously dealt with by candidates from both parties, and put forward key election issues to change their plans. From the current point of view, neither Hillary nor Trump's opinions on the above issues can convince most voters. We believe that no matter who wins this election, the deep contradictions in American society will persist for a long time, and it is futile not to carry out profound structural reforms.

On the economic front, after a seven-year economic recovery cycle, the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates for the first time at the end of last year. However, due to moderate domestic economic growth in the United States and subsequent fluctuations in foreign markets, the normalization process of the Fed's interest rate policy has been delayed for six months. During this period, although the Fed once wanted to speed up the rate hike, it further delayed the rate hike due to the recent weak data in the non-agricultural labor market. Since June, the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has repeatedly wavered between hawks and doves, which has had and will continue to have a great impact on the exchange rate of the US dollar, leading to large fluctuations in the offshore exchange rate of the US dollar against other major currencies, especially the RMB. In the future, the global financial market will continue to fluctuate around the Fed's interest rate policy and the trend of the US dollar.