Supplementary life-dedicated to the post-70 s and post-80 s

There is a word that people of our age class have discussed after dinner, and that is "supplementary birth". At first glance, we still don't understand what this is. When we look back, it really is. Supplementary fertility probably refers to those who have not completed their fertility tasks after the age of 35, and will give birth later, that is, after the second child is fully released in June 65438+ 10/,millions of people will be born. Many friends around me are like this, concentrated in couples of childbearing age from the 1970 s to the early 1980 s. Generally speaking, the liberalization of the second child policy has brought them a lot of laughter and changed their previous lifestyle, especially the time they used to spend on themselves has now become more family-oriented.

After the full liberalization of the two-child policy, the proportion of two children among the newly born population in China has remained at around 50% in the past two years, and the positive significance of the two-child policy is constantly being released. The scale of women of childbearing age in China 15-49 reached its peak in 20 1 1 year, and has been declining since then, and the corresponding birth population has also entered a downward channel. Since 2000, the annual birth population has fluctuated between1500-180,000. In addition to the size of women of childbearing age, the age structure and marital status of women of childbearing age will also have an impact. According to the data of 20 15, more than half of women of childbearing age are over 40 years old. In 20 17, the number of people getting married nationwide was about10.63 million, down by 7% year-on-year. In the past three years, the average age of giving birth to the first child and the average age of giving birth to the second child have been pushed back by one year. According to the data disclosed by experts from the National Center for Population Mobility and Development, there are 20 1 500-16 million new population, while 2017.23 million new population, that is,1.

Relevant data show that the number of two-child births continued to increase in 20 17, accounting for more than 50%. 20 17 is the second year of the implementation of China's "comprehensive two-child" birth policy, and it is also the first year when the policy effect is fully manifested. Affected by the policy effect, the number of two-child births increased significantly in 20 16, which was significantly higher than the average level during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. In 20 17, the number of two-child births further increased to 8.83 million, an increase of 1.62 million over 20 16. The proportion of two children in the total birth population reached 5 1.2%, which was 1 1 percentage point higher than that in 20 16 years. The "comprehensive two-child" policy is conducive to promoting the balanced development of China's population. In recent years, with the change of the age structure of the population in China, the number of women of childbearing age has decreased year by year. 20 17 years 15-49 years old women of childbearing age decreased by 4 million compared with 20 16 years old, among which the number of women of childbearing age aged 20-29 decreased by nearly 6 million. At the same time, with the development of economy and society, the age of women's first marriage and childbearing in China is constantly delayed, and women's fertility will also decline. Under the influence of the above factors, the number of only children born in 20 17 was 7.24 million, 2.49 million fewer than that in 20 16. Generally speaking, the implementation of the "two-child policy" and the obvious increase in the number of two children have greatly alleviated the impact of the decrease in the number of one child, which is conducive to improving the age structure of the population and promoting the balanced development of the population.

Liang Jianzhang, Executive Chairman of Ctrip Group, held a new book release conference on Population Innovation: Opportunities and Traps in the Rise of Great Powers in April 2008. Huang, a senior researcher invited by Globalization Think Tank, Dean of Xinjiegou Research Institute in Peking University, Professor of Sociology in Peking University and Dai Xiaojing, President of Caixin Media attended the conference. Liang Jianzhang said, "For a country, assuming the system and technical conditions remain unchanged, the population size and structure will become the key factors to determine economic innovation. In the future, national competition will mainly be carried out in the fields of fierce competition and innovation. In contrast, a populous country is more likely to obtain a huge market and talent pool, thus having a unique advantage in innovation. "

Huang, another author of the book, mentioned in his speech that the change of population size is relatively slow, which leads to insufficient attention and discussion on this issue. He thinks the population size effect is very important. In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the abundant young labor force has been one of the core competitive advantages of China's economy. However, the future trend is obvious, and the fertility rate in China is far below the level of intergenerational replacement. In the next 30 years, the advantage of China's large population will basically remain. In the national competition, it is necessary to change from a sprint state to a long-distance running state that requires endurance. The change of population size and structure is not easy to be noticed by people, but the influence of population change is extensive and profound, which is a major strategic issue of China's reform and development. Li jianxin, a professor of sociology in Peking University, said: "As a basic and long-term variable, population requires decision makers to have a big pattern and a big vision when formulating policies." After reading this book, I have a deep understanding and share some thoughts as follows:

First of all, it is imperative to encourage childbearing. In order to cope with the low fertility rate, countries all over the world have begun to take active measures to encourage people to have children. Here we briefly list one or two. In Europe, most countries have adopted generous policies to encourage fertility. In Britain, most families with their first child can get a weekly subsidy of 20.5 pounds, and each additional child will increase by 65,438 pounds +03.5 pounds a week until they are 20 years old. For low-income families, the first child pays 122.5 a week. Low-income families with more than two children can receive a weekly subsidy of 265,438+00. Germany, France, Russia and other countries have adopted direct cash subsidies to encourage childbearing. Look at Asia again. Every time a child is born, the Japanese government will give a one-time bonus of one million yen. In 20 13, the Japanese government increased the budget for encouraging childbearing from 9.4 billion yen to1400 million yen. In addition, South Korea, Singapore, China and Taiwan Province Province, which are facing the problem of low fertility, have also begun to increase their budgets to encourage childbearing, but they are still at a low level compared with European countries. At present, how to improve the fertility rate is a common problem faced by most countries. In 2000, the fertility rate in China was about 1.6, and it was as low as 1.3 in 20 15, which was one of the lowest in the world.

What aspects should be included in the policy of encouraging birth: ① Financial support. In many developed countries with low fertility, the standard of child support payments to families ranges from 1% to 5% of GDP. There is a positive correlation here: higher subsidies will bring higher fertility levels. ② Day care and education support. France is famous for its government's strong support for preschool children. The government not only provides kindergarten services for every child free of charge, but also allows children aged 2.5 months to 3 years to be placed in government-provided day care centers. This public service is also free. At present, other countries are also learning the day-care policies of European countries. In China, especially in big cities, private kindergartens and day-care centers are expensive, while public kindergartens and day-care centers are in short supply. Primary and secondary schools cannot meet the needs of urban population growth, and various problems have also aggravated the low fertility rate in big cities. ③ Give maternity leave benefits. Generally speaking, pregnancy benefits in Europe are very generous. In Britain, paid maternity leave lasts for 39 weeks and enjoys 90% salary. In Germany, maternity leave with full pay lasts 140 days, after which the employer must provide 40% of the salary until the child is one and a half years old. During this period, the employer cannot dismiss the mother. (4) Establish a culture of encouraging childbearing. For example, the French government will award gold medals to mothers who have given birth to more than eight children. In addition, illegitimate children are quite common in Europe. Children born out of wedlock can enjoy the same subsidies as those born in wedlock, which makes it easier for single women to raise children, which improves the fertility rate to some extent. The low marriage rate is the main reason for the low fertility rate in Asian countries and regions, because illegitimate children are discriminated against in their cultures.

Second, economic development lies in people. 1. Impact of aging on different industries: Aging will hinder a country's innovation vitality, but the impact on different industries is indeed different. Let's take a concrete look: entertainment tourism. Entertainment and tourism involve the spiritual needs of human beings. As people become richer, the consumption of food, clothing, housing and transportation tends to be saturated, and more and more time will be spent on entertainment consumption and tourism activities. And the elderly have free time to engage in these activities. Therefore, even if the population is aging, the prospect of tourism and entertainment is also optimistic. Health industry. Older people live longer, and it costs more to extend their life, so the health care industry will rise with the aging population. Advances in genetic technology have also made medical care one of the most dynamic and innovative industries. The financial industry. The essence of the financial industry is the cross-time transaction of labor force output. Children grow up on the wealth of their parents and society, and return in the form of taxes when they grow up. The government levies taxes on the employed population to provide living and medical security for the elderly. If the population continues to age, the government will have to reduce pension benefits to cope with the increasing pressure of pension expenditure. Therefore, more and more people will rely on savings or investment to support their old age, which will lead to more prosperity of the financial industry in an aging society. Real estate industry. Although people of all ages have housing needs, people usually buy a house at the age of 30-45 (the need to get married and have children), and after 45 (the children grow up and leave their parents), the housing demand will shrink. China's big cities will maintain strong housing demand, because there are more opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship. However, due to the age structure changes brought about by the low fertility rate, this demand will peak in 2025, and then it will stagnate. Energy and commodities. The peak demand for steel and iron ore in China has passed, while the global demand for energy and commodities will peak in 2040~2070. Since then, as population growth has entered a stage of stagnation and aging, commodity prices will also decline with the decline in demand. A country's wealth and competitiveness will depend more and more on innovation.

Three, several issues about population and economy. What is the relationship between low fertility rate and old-age care? After the problem of population aging caused by low fertility rate appears, the government's pension expenditure will increase, and the government will basically choose the following measures to deal with it: raising taxes; Reduce the welfare of the elderly; Extend the retirement age. All these will reduce a country's economic vitality and innovation ability to a certain extent. In the next chapter, the author will explain the reasons. ② Can the low fertility rate reduce the unemployment rate? Although more people entering the labor market will increase the labor supply, it will also create more demand and stimulate more employment opportunities. In particular, if an economy is open to international trade and has a flexible market, more people will not lead to higher unemployment rate. On the contrary, many countries with low fertility rate have high unemployment rate (Spain, Russia, etc. ), this is caused by the rigidity of the labor market and the unreasonable wage structure, and has nothing to do with overpopulation.

Fourth, the innovation ability has widened the gap between countries. More than twenty years ago, American economist Paul Romer put forward a model of innovation and economic growth: under certain conditions, a larger group can make more people engage in research and innovation, thus promoting faster technological progress and higher labor productivity. This model has several assumptions, one of which is a free market economy, which ensures that knowledge and goods can be traded. Another idea is to strengthen the awareness of property rights of goods and knowledge, so that people have more motivation to innovate technology and start businesses. As early as 65438+1950s, the United States began to learn and absorb the advanced technology of Western Europe, and attracted a large number of immigrants. Soon after, the United States not only surpassed western European countries in population, but also changed from an imitator to a pioneer of technological innovation. Inventors and entrepreneurs such as Thomas Edison and Henry Ford quickly led the trend of advanced technology and business organizations in the world. The United States is still the world's leading innovator and economic superpower, which is inseparable from its powerful advantage in population size. The most fundamental problem in economics is how to make a country richer. Of course, this is inseparable from stable government, property rights protection, good infrastructure, sound financial system, perfect education system, open trade and other factors, but the author finally found that the factor that separates high-income countries from middle-income countries is often innovation ability. (1) academic theory; (2) New technologies, new processes and new products; (3) New business model and organizational form; (4) Content creation: music, movies, games, etc.

Innovation is becoming more and more important, and globalization also makes the return of innovation richer than usual. However, innovation is getting harder and harder. Statistics show that the average age of patent applicants is increasing and the interdisciplinary probability is decreasing, which means that inventors are getting older and more professional. It is common for a patent to have two or three inventors now. Like a giant, human knowledge is getting bigger and bigger, and the difficulty coefficient is increasing day by day for latecomers to stand on the shoulders of giants. And innovation is usually sporadic, and inspiration may come from the integration of different disciplines. Therefore, a good inventor should not only become an expert in his own field, but also cooperate well with researchers in other fields. Similarly, successful entrepreneurs also need to have a variety of skills and work experience. How to measure a country's innovation ability? From the perspective of investment, the indicators to measure innovation mainly include R&D expenditure and the number of researchers; From the production point of view, these indicators mainly include the number of patents, the export of high-tech products and the number of academic publications.

How do verbs (short for verb) promote innovation? Since innovation is so important to economic development, how can we promote innovation? Under the macro premise that the country is unified and stable, the government attaches importance to education and the financial industry is smooth, what other factors promote innovation? Michael Porter, a famous economist, pointed out that a certain industry in a country needs four elements to succeed: endowment, demand, parts industry and competition. The author believes that all these factors point to population. A large population means a large talent pool and a large local market, which meets the factors of endowment and demand. The huge market can not only give birth to a more developed and perfect parts industry, but also cultivate more competitors.

Three demographic factors of innovation: ① scale effect. Economies of scale are the result of specialized division of labor, which means population support. With specialized division of labor, each company can focus on more specific tasks, so it will be more efficient. For innovation, the scale advantage of big countries is even greater. For example, China has the most advanced high-speed rail technology, because China has invested far more manpower and material resources in R&D than a small country. This scale advantage has played a decisive role in the Internet industry, because the winners in the Internet industry are often those companies that attract a large number of customers first. Ctrip, the leading Internet travel brand in China, can employ 5,000 software engineers to serve the China market, while the figure in China is only one tenth of that in China. Therefore, it is possible for big countries to have local Internet companies. American Internet giants did not conquer China as they conquered other parts of the world, because China already has a larger Internet market than the United States. ② Aggregation effect. In addition to the population size, the geographical distribution of the population is also very important. The agglomeration effect of manufacturing industry is the result of the proximity of related enterprises. For example, Detroit in the United States and Nagoya in Japan. The agglomeration effect of high-tech industries is the agglomeration effect of innovative talents. For example, Silicon Valley in the United States. There are more enterprises in big cities, which can better match talents with enterprises, and the high mobility of talents also reduces the cost of starting a business. Similarly, big cities can provide more cooperation opportunities for talents with different academic backgrounds, further enhancing the advantages of cities. Therefore, the development scale of big cities should not be limited. As long as the planning is reasonable, the population size of megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai can still be increased. ③ Aging effect. Why is age so important to a country's innovation? Generally speaking, after the age of 20, the cognitive speed (the ability to absorb new information) will drop rapidly, and the most creative age of people is 30~40 years old. Because people of this age are experienced and energetic, it is also the best age to start a business. Author Liang Jianzhang founded Ctrip.com at the age of 29 with three other co-founders (the other two are 33 and 36 years old respectively). If entrepreneurs are relatively young, they will be more brave to take risks and accept subversive ideas more easily, so innovation is more likely to happen in younger systems. There will be a "blocking effect" in an aging country, that is, the older generation will hinder the innovation and entrepreneurial vitality of young people. The number of young people is small, they have little right to speak in the enterprise, there are few opportunities for empowerment, and their promotion is slow (because the top management has been occupied by older employees), so it is difficult for them to innovate and start businesses.

The Chinese nation is an innovative nation in history, and the basic quality of China's population is no less than that of any other country. A large population is the advantage of China's economic and technological development. Because of the scientific research talents and R&D investment of corresponding scale, China's scientific and technological development can advance by leaps and bounds. When resources no longer dominate economic development, China's economy is also transforming from manufacturing to service industry. The medical, tourism, finance, Internet and education industries have developed rapidly. It is predicted that from 2040, China will suffer the impact of rapid aging. If we adopt a policy of encouraging fertility, cultivate a social culture conducive to fertility, and promote urbanization and large-scale urbanization as soon as possible, China is expected to become the center of world economy and science and technology, and push human civilization to a new height.

The degree of a country's economic development depends on its innovation ability, which fundamentally depends on the population, including population size, geographical agglomeration and population age structure. China people are smart, hardworking, have the same language, respect teachers and attach importance to education, and pursue worldly success. If China can keep its population accounting for 20% of the world and maintain its absolute superiority in market size and talent quantity, with the support of its strong economic strength, China will still make rapid progress in science and technology, thus further consolidating China's economic position.