Will the overall rent level drop after the lifting of the ban on Shanghai epidemic?

After the current epidemic in Shanghai, the overall rent level will not decline, and individuals expect that the overall rent will continue to rise. We analyze it from five aspects:

First, there are obvious signs of loosening the real estate policy recently. The central government held intensive meetings to stabilize real estate, and more than 70 provinces and cities relaxed regulation to stimulate residents' housing demand. The phenomenon that the China property market rises as soon as it is loose will reappear. The Shanghai property market, which has always been strong, is likely to remain stable and then lead the rise. However, the rental-to-sale ratio of houses in Shanghai is extremely low, far lower than the bank deposit interest rate in the same period, and the rise in house prices will boost the rent increase.

Second, Shanghai concentrated on rectifying group renting houses many years ago, and then the management was relaxed. The epidemic situation has revealed that a large number of small and medium-sized units are still renting, and the security risks are more serious. After the renovation of group renting houses, there will be more demand for renting houses, which will lead to an increase in rents.

Three, after the outbreak, some people in Shanghai may leave Shanghai because of its poor performance, but this should be a normal population flow. Although Shanghai has made great problems in this round of epidemic prevention and control and urban management, and paid a great price, it is still one of the few most dynamic and attractive cities in China, which will attract many young talents and all kinds of talents to settle in Shanghai and provide a large number of demand for housing and renting, which are the guarantee force for the firm or even rising housing prices and rents in Shanghai.

In this epidemic in Shanghai, the infection rate of a large number of old people and children is extremely high, and there are too many positive people in many communities, so negative people have to move to other places. The lessons of the epidemic have given birth to the demand of many small-sized residents to change houses. Rent will also rise with house prices, similar to the trend of house prices and rents after the Wuhan epidemic in 2020.

The epidemic in Shanghai has closed the whole area for more than a month, and some family conflicts have intensified, resulting in divorce. A large number of young couples have the time and energy to have a second child and a third child, both of which will bring potential demand for buying and renting houses. Therefore, the rent in Shanghai will not only decline, but also show an upward trend.