Will Japan be aging forever?

It will last a long time, but not forever.

The problem in Japan now is that with the passage of time, this proportion will increase significantly in the next few decades and become the most serious social problem in Japan, so Japan will be nervous. And this involves the estimation of Japan in 20 16 years, including the birth rate (there are charts but I can't send them).

The main reason for Japan's nervousness is that the previously estimated data (estimated by Cabinet Office 20 15) is quite different from the actual data. For example, when estimated in 20 16, the proportion of the elderly (over 65 years old) is a little higher than the actual data (estimated as 27.2 vs. 26.59), but the estimated total fertility rate (TFR) is much higher than the actual data.

Note 1TFR refers to the number of offspring born by each female in her lifetime.

Note: The estimated data of 220 16 comes from the "National Survey" in 20 15 and the "Population Projection" in 20 16.

But in any case, the life expectancy of the elderly population is limited, so with the death of the elderly population, when the population of all ages tends to be balanced, no matter how big the total population is, the elderly population will not last forever.

Then, whether it is balance or just relief, we can actually consider changing it through some methods, such as introducing foreign population and recalling overseas Japanese ... so "permanent aging" is unlikely to happen.

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As for the problem of declining birthrate, it is irresponsible to shirk it to the otaku culture, from the following points:

The divorce rate in Japan has increased significantly in recent years. The divorce rate was 0.84 in 1955, 2.08 in 2005 (the highest in history) and 1.69 in 20 19. On the whole, Japanese people's willingness to get married has been in a continuous downturn.

The age of marriage (first marriage) is increasing day by day. 1955: 26.6 for males and 23.8 for females; 20 19: 310.2 for males and 29.6 for females; the age at first marriage increased the most. It is worth mentioning that the demand for labor in Japanese society is somewhat like the performance of drinking poison to quench thirst. PS: 20 17 Japan's white paper on male and female participation shows that the female employment rate is 66.0%, which is the historical peak, but there are also many informal and unwilling forms of employment.

Due to the change of livable environment and the influence of population mobility, it can be seen that the situation of counties in Japan is that the less population, the lower the birth rate, and on the contrary, the birth rate will increase (the birth rate in some areas even exceeds that in Japan). Therefore, it can be considered that maintaining a certain population density can slightly improve this situation.

The overall decline in fertility desire must be attributed to Japan's current poor per capita economic situation. In 20 19, Japan's per capita debt was 90 1 10,000 yen, and in 2020 it was about 9.69 million yen. Compared with the data of previous years, the debt has increased by almost 500,000 yen (or more) per year.

And so on, Japan's declining birthrate is a multi-factor problem, which is very complicated. From the details, no country can be exactly the same, even the most similar South Korea.