Reflections on the dangerous road of big countries

Forward-looking Thinking on the Population Problem in China —— Reading The Dangerous Road of Great Powers

Author: Yang Guo

Have access to such a book, The Dangerous Road of Great Powers, which analyzes and thinks about the population problem of a country. This problem is actually closely related to our life, and the population policy is a basic national policy of a country. I am very glad to know the present situation and future trend of China's population policy through this book, so as to have a deeper understanding of the background of China's national economic policy formulation.

Let me start with the author Liu Zhongliang, who is a young scholar studying in the graduate class of School of Economics of Renmin University. On his way to school, he is working hard for his dream. There is a strong sense of mission and responsibility in such a young man. His keen insight enables him to study the advantages and disadvantages of population policy from a broader perspective, and at the same time, he can use professional economic theory to support the views in the book. As far as its attitude of specialized research is concerned, it is worth learning from young friends.

My feelings after reading this book mainly include the following points:

First, the population problem needs to be paid enough attention. At present, the population problem in China has indeed reached a crisis stage.

With the development of our society, the current fertility rate is declining. Because raising children is labor-intensive, the years of education are getting longer and longer, and the degree of monetization of child support is getting higher and higher, which leads to the increase of raising costs faster than the increase of income, the increase of raising pressure and the decrease of fertility rate.

At the same time, with the development of economy and society and the improvement of women's education level, the opportunity cost of bearing children has also increased rapidly (the high income given up for bearing children and raising children is its opportunity cost), but the income of raising children has become more and more socialized under the economic development and marketization. For example, children are consumers of enterprises, workers of future enterprises and society, taxpayers of future countries and demand defenders of future wealth, and children are used as public goods by the whole society. In today's economic and social system, raising children tends to be a public product, but the cost of raising children is personal and rising, thus causing the tragedy of private supply of public goods.

Second, the consequences of low fertility.

1. The low fertility rate makes the future economic development unsustainable.

Due to the premature ultra-low fertility rate, by 2025, the median age of China's population will reach 40, and the population over 65 will exceed 14%, changing from an "aging country" to an "elderly country".

By 2028, with the retirement age of 65, China's retirement age population will reach nearly 28 million, while the working-age population is only150 thousand, and China's working population is decreasing like a flood. At the same time, in 2025, the number of young people aged 25-29 who have the most consumption vitality and innovation vitality in China will decrease by 4 1%, and industries such as real estate, automobiles and household appliances will face a serious crisis of overcapacity and declining competitiveness. At this time, China's industrialization and urbanization have been basically completed, and China's economic growth momentum will be greatly attenuated like the Japanese.

2. The ultra-low fertility rate will lead to a serious pension crisis in the future.

The essence of providing for the aged is that the working population supports the non-working population and the young people support the elderly. The fundamental problem of providing for the aged is that the proportion of the elderly population is large and the young population is insufficient. The 42 1 family structure caused by the one-child policy will bring heavy pressure to the elderly in China in the future. Families who have lost their only child will die in No Country for Old Men. The population policy will change every night for a year, and tens of thousands of elderly people who have lost their children will be added in the future.

Due to the persistent low fertility rate, there will be a serious shortage of labor force in the future, which will inevitably lead to a sharp rise in prices and soaring service prices, which will greatly depreciate the currency in the hands of the elderly. Due to the persistent low fertility rate, China will be aging again in the future, and the economy will be depressed, which will greatly reduce the investment in providing for the elderly. Due to the persistent low fertility rate, the proportion of the working population will drop sharply in the future, the pension system will be empty, the labor input will be seriously insufficient, the socialized pension model will be at a low level, and it will be on the verge of bankruptcy, and the pension funds obtained by the elderly will be relatively greatly reduced. Due to the continuous low fertility rate, the future labor force will be greatly reduced, and it is difficult to increase fiscal revenue. The government's expenditure on people's livelihood, such as medical care and old-age care, will certainly grow slowly or decline, making the life of the elderly even more bleak. If the population policy is not changed now, there will be more one-child families and families who have lost their independence facing the crisis of providing for the aged.

3. The one-child policy has seriously weakened China's military strength.

At present, most of the recruits in China are "only children" (the only family fragrance). The reality shows that the only-child recruits are not determined and do not want to experience the difficulties brought by high-intensity training. How to fight such an army? Do parents and grandparents agree to let such an army take part in the battle again? In the past, an invincible secret weapon of China's army was its sufficient strength and high morale. Even at the expense of a soldier, there are still many brothers and sisters in the family who shoulder family responsibilities and provide for their elders. Don't worry. But now, most of them are only children, and sacrificing a young soldier is almost equal to ruining the hope of the whole family in the future. What is the actual combat effectiveness of such an army?

Continuing the one-child policy will increase a large number of bachelors in the future.

All countries in the world tend to prefer sons to daughters to varying degrees, but only China has a compulsory family planning and one-child policy. Because of the strong contradiction between the one-child policy and the people's desire to have boys through free birth, they are forced to identify the sex of the fetus, which brings about a serious imbalance in the sex ratio. At present, the imbalance of sex ratio in China is as high as 1.20: 1.00, and one fifth of men will not find a wife in the future.

5. The pressure of providing for the aged is heavy, the economy and society lack vitality, and the country lacks development hope.

In any country, children and young people are always ahead of consumption, while middle-aged and elderly people are behind consumption. The inevitable result of low fertility and aging is the long-term downturn in consumer demand. All investment needs come from final consumption, and all final consumption comes from people's needs. The end result of low fertility rate is long-term low investment demand. Determined by the sum of economic and social laws of population, the long-term low fertility rate in any economy will eventually lead to long-term "unemployment devil" and youth unemployment.

At present, the problem of youth and youth unemployment in Europe and Japan is fundamentally caused by the low fertility rate in the past. The current population policy is not for the sake of a better society for future young people and future generations, but for the society with aging, lack of vitality in economy and society and lack of hope in nation-state. The purpose of changing the population policy now is to create hope and reduce pressure for our children and future generations.

Third, the population policy needs to be adjusted according to the national conditions.

The book points out that family planning is not only a good birth, but also a plan. We can understand that we should formulate the corresponding population policy and birth policy reasonably according to the needs of the development of the times. Encourage fertility in a timely manner, and the second and third births are family planning.

It is not difficult to see that a large number of data in the book directly or indirectly prove that the population policy needs to be adjusted in order to solve the current population problem in China and effectively cope with the crisis. I believe that in the near future, the change of birth policy can effectively solve the problems we are facing at present. Meanwhile, a more prosperous and progressive society gives us more time to enjoy a better life.

Finally, I recommend you to understand and care about the population problem in China through this book. Everyone is responsible for the prosperity of the country. Let's start from ourselves and work hard to realize the Chinese dream.