Characteristics and trends of the current international strategic environment

Characteristics and Trends of the Current International Strategic Environment At present and in the future, the international strategic environment faced by China will consist of five dimensions: First, the trend of multi-polarity in the world has become increasingly prominent, adding to the uncertainty of changes in the international and regional patterns. Certainty; second, the competition among major powers has increased, especially the geostrategic competition and military strategic competition around the Indo-Pacific-Asia plate have intensified significantly, with prominent security overtones; third, existing international regulations continue to change and adjust, and a variety of new regulations have been applied. The two intertwined and coexisted to promote the reconstruction of the international order and international system, adding to the urgency and long-term nature of the battle for rules; fourth, the interaction between China and the world has expanded and deepened to the regulatory level, and China's influence on the world continues to increase , the period of strategic opportunities facing China's development increasingly depends on its own world positioning and behavioral choices; fifth, new space and new highlights for Sino-US cooperation have begun to change the structure and nature of the relationship between the two countries, and the degree of institutionalization has increased to stabilize bilateral relations. Development provides institutional guarantees, and the advancement of crisis management and control mechanism capacity building makes it possible for both sides to adhere to the bottom line of non-conflict and non-confrontation. The large-scale expansion of people-to-people and cultural exchanges will solidify the social foundation of bilateral relations. These characteristics indicate that a new form of major-country relations between China and the United States is emerging, which may become a major positive factor affecting China's international strategic environment. At present, while the world's politics, economy, culture, society, and military are undergoing many regular changes, they are also undergoing rapid changes due to factors such as population, technology, production methods, ideas, domestic governance and forms of interaction in various countries, especially globalization and The in-depth shaping effect of the informatization process has presented more and more new trends and new forms. Against this background, countries around the world, especially major powers, are constantly adjusting their internal and external strategies and policies, and the world pattern and order are facing reshaping. Correctly understanding the changing characteristics of the current international strategic situation and accurately grasping its development trend are of great significance for us to complete the "13th Five-Year Plan" and achieve the "Two Centenary Goals".

1. The trend of multipolarity enhances the changes in the international and regional patterns. The essence of multipolarity in the world is the spread and accumulation of power distribution from one center to more centers around the world, as well as the power between centers. Contrast gaps are reduced and balance is increased. From the perspective of a period of more than a century, the trend of multipolarity is that since modern times, the dominance of Europe and the United States as the center of the world has been relatively declining, and the influence of Asia, Africa and Latin America has been relatively increased; from the perspective of the 70 years after the war, the trend of multipolarity is that the dominance of Western countries The colonial system collapsed, and the majority of developing countries achieved national liberation and national independence, and played an increasingly important role on the world political stage; from the perspective of the 25 years after the Cold War, the multi-polar trend is that the United States will become the "one superpower". Its status has been relatively weakened, while the international status and influence of other major countries and regional powers have continued to rise. In this sense and at different times, the trend of world multipolarity is irreversible and is currently continuing to deepen at different levels and in different fields. From a global perspective, although the economic growth of China, Russia, Brazil and other countries has begun to slow down to varying degrees, and major Western countries have gradually emerged from the financial and economic crisis and their economic growth has accelerated, but overall, the seven Western countries (the United States, Canada, The overall power gap between the traditional developed countries represented by Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy) and the emerging economies and developing countries represented by the BRICS (China, India, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa) The shrinking trend continues. In terms of changes in strength, from 2007 to 2014, the proportion of the total gross domestic product (GDP) of the "Seven Western Countries" in the world's total GDP dropped from 5

4.82% to 4

5.68%, the proportion of total foreign exchange reserves in the world's total foreign exchange reserves dropped from 2

2.92% to 1

3.24%, the total military expenditure in all countries in the world The proportion of total military expenditure dropped from 6

1.67% to 4

8.81%.

In contrast, emerging economies and developing countries continue to maintain a collective rise. From 2007 to 2014, the proportion of the total GDP of the "BRICS" in the total world GDP increased from 1

3.79% to 2

1.82%, and the total foreign exchange reserves It increased from 1

7.73% to 2

8.33%, and the total military expenditure increased from 1

2.88% to 2

1.54% . In terms of international influence, emerging economies and developing countries are increasingly participating in regional and international affairs and playing an increasingly important role in the creation and transformation of regional and international mechanisms. Under multilateral frameworks such as the United Nations, the Group of 20, the Group of 77, and the Non-Aligned Movement, emerging economies and developing countries have actively cooperated, expanding their voice and increasing their influence. The "BRICS" requested the International Monetary Fund to implement the voting rights reform plan adopted in 2010, and announced the establishment of the BRICS Development Bank and Foreign Exchange Reserve Bank at the Durban Summit in South Africa in April 2013. In June 2015, the BRICS The National Development Bank was established in Shanghai, China, which played an important role in further improving the multilateral development financing system. In contrast, although the comprehensive national strength of the United States as a "superpower" is still outstanding, its leading role in the evolution of the world pattern and the international system has been further weakened, and the gap with other major powers has further narrowed.

Coupled with the transformation of the international system and the increasingly complex international situation, especially the intensifying crisis in Syria, the increasing threats from extremist organizations such as "Islamic State", and the deadlock on the Ukraine issue, etc., all have made the United States monopolize the regional and international situation. Willingness, determination and ability have declined. In the context of the narrowing of the gap in comprehensive national strength between the "one super" and the "multiple powers" and the balanced development of international status among the "multiple powers", China, Russia, the European Union, Japan, India and other "multiple powers" rely on their respective regions to exert their influence. advantages and actively maintain and enhance their status and influence. "Middle powers" such as Brazil, Australia, South Korea, Indonesia, Turkey, Iran, and South Africa have also strengthened their willingness and ability to develop independently to varying degrees, and have become more active in international and regional affairs. On regional and international hot issues such as Ukraine, Syria, Afghanistan, the Iranian nuclear issue, and the North Korean nuclear issue, the influence of China, Russia, India, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other countries continues to rise. As regional cooperation such as the African Union, Arab League, ASEAN, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, and the Latin American Community advances, the status and influence of emerging economies have further increased. In addition, non-state actors such as international non-governmental organizations and multinational corporations have also exerted increasing influence on international and regional affairs by virtue of their respective advantages, causing constraints and impacts on the status and role of major countries.

2. Strategic competition among major powers intensifies in multiple dimensions. Faced with the in-depth development of multi-polarization trends, the world's major strategic forces have accelerated the adjustment of internal and external strategies, striving to clarify their positioning, accumulate and leverage their advantages. The United States has significantly strengthened its strategic planning in the near and medium term, striving to seize the initiative in world development and the transformation of the international order, and ensure its global leadership. In the economic and social fields, we actively promoted a series of reforms in finance, education, science and technology, medical care, immigration, etc., implemented plans such as "re-industrialization" and energy self-sufficiency, and started negotiations on service trade agreements with 23 economies (***50 countries). , negotiated the "Transatlantic Comprehensive Trade and Investment Agreement" (TTIP) with the European Union, and negotiated the "Trans-Pacific Comprehensive Agreement" with 11 countries including Japan, Australia, Canada, Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, New Zealand, Chile, Mexico, and Peru. Partnership Agreement (TPP), seeking to lead the formulation of a new and higher-standard system of international trade rules. In the field of politics and diplomacy, it emphasizes continuing to play a global leadership role, focusing on leveraging the power of alliances and partners, using more "offshore balancing" and leveraging strategies in regional strategies, and making more use of economic and financial sanctions and multilateral measures against targets of suppression. pressure and other policy measures.

Source: International Issues Research