What kind of pattern will the floating population in China present in the future?

Prediction of the characteristics of population mobility trend in China in the future

Looking back on the urbanization process of developed and emerging countries and the migration and mobility of population in recent 20 years, it is predicted that the population mobility in China will continue for a long time and will not decrease in a short time. The population size of megacities will continue to grow, and the population of coastal economic centers will be more dense, while the population aging in central, western and northeastern regions will be accelerated by the continuous outflow of young people. However, with the change of the composition of the floating population, the characteristics of the flow may be different from the past.

In the process of industrialization and urbanization, the proportion of urban population increases in an "S" shape, which can be divided into starting period, accelerating period, slowing period and stable period according to the level and process of urbanization. In developed countries that have basically completed urbanization, the final urbanization level exceeds 70% or even 90%. The countries in the world with higher population density, more than 60% urbanization and more than 50 million people are Germany, the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Italy and Britain. The urbanization process in developed countries such as the United States and Europe has gone through hundreds of years, and the rapid urbanization stage in the United States has lasted for 60 years. However, the urbanization process in other countries is quite rapid, such as Japan and South Korea, which completed the rapid development stage of urbanization in only 20 years. China's urbanization rate has just exceeded 50%, and there is still a lot of room for development. It is in the stage of rapid development and will continue for a long time. The migration of labor from rural areas to cities is an important driving force for population urbanization. In the future, more rural people will move to cities to settle down or become urban residents on the spot.

Although the economic development momentum of the central and western regions has been good in recent years under the impetus of national planning and policies, the regional gradient pattern formed over the years cannot be changed, and the dominant position of the eastern coastal areas has not changed, and the attraction of young labor force is still far beyond that of the central and western regions. The "new generation" of migrant workers born after 1980s are also different from the previous generation. They are more interested in seeing the world, learning skills or leaving the countryside to work in cities, and are more concerned about developing their own future and improving their skills, rather than mainly making money to support their families. Although the wages of migrant workers have been continuously raised in many areas in recent years, wage income is not the only factor that these young migrant workers consider. In addition to more employment opportunities and development space, urban public policies, medical and health services, quality of life and social and cultural environment are all important conditions to attract young people; Staying in the city for children's education has also become the reason why a considerable number of young migrant parents choose to stay in the city. The eastern coastal areas undoubtedly have comparative advantages in these aspects. The study of cross-border immigration in Europe found that high-quality immigrants often consider more when choosing the place to move in, and areas with higher standards and poor social environment are not competitive in attracting high-quality immigrants. Under the aging trend of the local population, attracting young and high-quality immigrants with various policies and conditions has become a contest among European countries. The eastern coastal areas of China are more attractive to high-quality immigrants.

Population changes will also affect the future trend of population mobility. In areas where the proportion of only children is relatively high and concentrated, young people may first choose cities close to home for employment, or move back to cities close to home when their parents need it, thus reducing inter-provincial mobility and increasing intra-provincial mobility. In some areas, such as Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Jiangsu, in 2005, the only child accounted for more than 40% of the population under 30. The corresponding proportions in Sichuan, Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Hubei are between 30% and 40%. In fact, from 2005 to 20 10, Henan has surpassed Sichuan to become the largest province of population outflow, and the population change in Sichuan should be one of the influencing factors.

Judging from the demand of floating population, although the eastern coastal areas have a large population, they still need a large number of young laborers. The main reason is that the population structure in these areas is aging, and the aging speed will be faster as the peers in China and China enter the old age. For a population, there are only two ways to adjust the age structure: addition and subtraction, that is, increasing the number of young people through birth and immigration, and reducing the number of old people through death and immigration. Judging from the current development trend, the fertility rate in these areas has been low for a long time, but it has not been significantly improved. With the development of economy and society and the improvement of social security level, the health status of the elderly is improving day by day, life expectancy is prolonged and the mortality rate is further reduced. Therefore, it is impossible to effectively supplement young people locally, and it is basically impossible for the elderly to move out. In this case, the introduction of young labor force has increased the population, but it is the only way to adjust the age structure of the population and alleviate the aging of the population.

To maintain rapid economic growth, it is necessary to find a balance between the demand for young labor and the control of population size, which is also a difficult problem faced by developed countries in Europe and some emerging countries in Asia. For example, in the population white papers released by Singapore in June of 20 13 and 13, in view of the prospect that the population will begin to shrink in 2025, Singapore put forward the coping strategies of encouraging marriage and giving birth and welcoming immigrants, and plans to introduce1.5 ~ 25,000 young immigrants every year. For Singapore, a city country, this will obviously increase the number of residents and population density. Although the government specifically proposed in the white paper to pay attention to the balance between structure and quantity and carefully control the number of immigrants, it was opposed by some Singaporean citizens. It seems that the truth that "adjusting the population structure requires addition, and we can't have more children but only move in more young people" requires not only the decision makers but also the society.

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