Japan’s total fertility rate dropped to a record low of 1.30. Japan may cease to exist in the future. What do you think of this comment?

Vietnam’s fertility rate is not as good as Japan’s. However, if the Vietnamese media dares to discuss topics such as low fertility rate and no future for the country, believe it or not, if an iron fist package is given on the spot, Japan does have no future, but it must be said from other perspectives, not from the perspective of fertility. Otherwise, it may not be Japan who is embarrassed. From an ethnic perspective, Japan has always had a large number of Chinese immigrants. As long as Japan is willing to breathe a sigh of relief, it is not uncommon for large numbers of Chinese to move there again. If not released sooner, China will begin to shrink its immigration policy. Of course, Vietnam is also the main force immigrating to Japan, but China has a population of more than 1 billion, and the number of people it can contribute is endless compared to Japan.

1. As long as this kind of public service and fertility rate can be maintained for one day, it is estimated that it can be maintained for one day until the Japanese model collapses. In other words, even if the Japanese model collapses today, it will continue to live. For 30 years, residents have enjoyed it. Thirty years of high vocational education, life is only thirty years, it is difficult to say that it is not worth it. The characteristic of the Japanese model is that since debt must be used to maintain life, it is better for the government to increase leverage than for residents to increase leverage. It is worth learning from this time. There are also areas to be wary of. Once the government does not increase leverage, public welfare cannot be maintained, and many accumulated problems will be exposed, such as maintaining the fertility rate, declining residents' quality of life, space for monetary policy, and government debt. crisis. ?

The Japanese model can be delayed for a long time. Decades are possible, and a person's life is only a few decades. However, it still doesn't completely solve the problem. To completely solve this problem, we must rely on distribution reform and the transfer of profits to the economy. In the future, we should stop the tendency to increase leverage and transfer pressure to residents, reduce the tendency of class solidification and social rigidity, and prevent the formation of a low-desire society caused by high thresholds. At the other extreme in East Asia is South Korea, where suicide rates among young people are extremely high. The fertility rate dropped directly to 0.8. South Korea and Japan are two fertility templates for East Asia that deserve consideration by other economies. If other economies do not plan for distributional reforms in advance, the best policy would be to do so.

Second, they are unwilling to borrow debt to maintain public expenditure and residents’ welfare, blindly increasing residents’ leverage ratio and exacerbating the abnormal wealth structure. The results will only be worse than South Korea, with a lower fertility rate and the problem of the elderly having nowhere to go after deep aging. The rigidity and solidification of the hierarchy will be an irresistible but foreseeable result. The proportion not dating a friend/lover or fiancée also increased compared to the 10 and 15 year surveys. Japan’s birth rate is still higher than some provinces in our country. With the sharp decline in our country's birth rate, if it disappears, our country will disappear first in the future. Moreover, Japan is very strict in accepting immigrants and can no longer survive. There will be many Chinese, Vietnamese, Filipinos, etc. immigrating to Japan, and they are all young people, so there is no need to worry about no one. Our country's per capita GDP is 1.0, and some areas have even caught up with South Korea, which ranks first. Japan 1.3, placed in most areas of our country, can be said to be relatively good.

3. Let me talk about it from another angle. At present, the fertility rates in these three countries are not high, and the fastest solution is to liberalize immigration. Young people are definitely high-quality immigrants. If both are open to immigrants, I won’t say much about which one is more attractive to young people with immigrant tendencies. The Japanese anime is really good and the games are okay too. Probably more attractive. Japan is no longer what it used to be, but this is a Chinese Internet platform, and most people who are not in Japan have no heart to empathize. The fertility policy of our generation has repeatedly increased fines from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, and then to the so-called liberalization of three children.

Internationally, it is said that the average couple has about 2.1 children, which equals the number of upper and lower generations. The average number of births in Japan is 1.3, which will result in a smaller number of children in the next generation. This is no problem. But now that Japan is so small, isn’t it still very dense? Even if it is passed down from generation to generation, when the population decreases to a certain number, will it always be 1.3 people/couple? Isn’t this just waiting to see what happens? If this Japanese critic had the level of Marxism represented by the political class of Chinese high school students, he would not say that Japan will cease to exist. As long as the fertility rate is below 2.1, the population will decrease. The only difference is speed. Our country’s fertility rate is also below 2.1. We will also die in the future, but much slower than Japan.

Four. Japan is not as good as it used to be, but this is a Chinese Internet platform. Most people who are not in Japan have no desire to go to other countries for sex. The fertility policy of our generation has repeatedly jumped from tens of thousands to 100,000 fines for over-pregnancy, to the so-called liberalization of three children. If Japanese experts say that Japan will disappear with 1.3 in the future, what will we do if we have not yet reached 1.3? The comprehensive tax rate remains high, and then The Gini coefficient is more than 0.47. Without time and money, it is impossible to have a high desire to have children. It is an exaggeration to say that it ceases to exist, but it is inevitable that this fertility rate will lead to the decline of the country in a few decades. If the situation in Japan remains unchanged, Japan's living standards in 50 years are estimated to be similar to North Korea at that time. Japan is unable to cope with the demographic crisis, and a large Eastern country may also face this crisis.