How "alternative" is the "alternative choice party" that scarred Merkel?

How "alternative" is the "alternative choice party" that scarred Merkel?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has always been calm and firm, has recently suffered many setbacks.

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party she led, suffered a crushing defeat in the tri-state parliamentary elections known as "Super Sunday", while the German Alternative Party (AFD), which opposed immigration, made great gains.

13 In the elections held in Baden-Wü rttemberg (hereinafter referred to as Baden-Wü rttemberg), Rhineland-Faraz (hereinafter referred to as lafayette) and Saxony-anhalt (hereinafter referred to as Saan) in March, the Chosen Party crossed the 5% parliamentary access threshold line known as the "life and death line" of these three States-lafayette with the lowest vote rate. In contrast, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to which former Prime Minister Schroeder belongs only got 10% of the votes.

Choosing the party has largely rewritten the political structure of the party since the reunification of Germany. Looking forward to the upcoming Bundestag election next year, the Choice Party will win the Bundestag seat without any doubt. Judging from the current polls, the support rate of choosing the party is second only to CDU and Social Democratic Party, but higher than that of Green Party and Left Party. It is not impossible for it to compete with the Social Democratic Party for the second largest party in the Federal Parliament in the future.

Petrie, leader of the German Alternative Party, held a press conference in Berlin to celebrate the party's victory in the elections in three states. Petrie was once called "Dectrump" by the outside world. She once said that the police should be authorized to shoot refugees "when necessary" to prevent them from crossing the German border. ]

Multiple reasons for the rise

In recent years, the so-called right-wing populist political forces in Europe have long been concerned by academic and media circles. UKIP and FN, which have attracted much attention in the past, have become the main representatives of these political parties by taking advantage of the political process of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union and the amazing support rate in local and European parliamentary elections in France. In some small European countries other than Britain and France, such as Austria, Denmark and Eastern European countries, similar political parties have also captured the city in elections at all levels, and many even won the ruling power at the local and even national levels.

In contrast, due to its special historical background and slightly better economic development trend, the development of the far-right populist party in Germany is often not an obvious political phenomenon-Germany and the party have long since retired from the historical stage, and the support rate of the National Democratic Party (NPD) has been low, and it can only be squeezed into the state parliaments of individual states occasionally.

Therefore, the choice of the party's sudden emergence has broken the old ideas of the outside world for a long time. As a small party established only in 20 13, the topic of party selection in that year mainly focused on opposing the euro, and failed to cross the threshold of 5% in the last Bundestag election. Now its development may surprise everyone, but it is also expected.

Among them, the most obvious and telling reason is the European refugee crisis since the summer of 20 15 and the influence of Merkel's "welcome culture" on German society. Because the Choice Party is opposed to opening the door to all refugees from the Middle East and North Africa, Germans who have scruples about refugees voted for it to express their dissatisfaction, and its social foundation was consolidated with the social problems brought by various refugees (such as the Cologne New Year riots).

Deutsche Welle believes that CDU's "defeat is like a mountain" is ultimately due to Merkel's refugee policy; Germany's "Pictorial" said that choosing the unexpected rise of the party was a punishment for Merkel's refugee policy.

But behind the appearance of refugee crisis, some deep-seated reasons can not be ignored, including the internal reasons for choosing the party's own strategy and the external reasons for Germany's overall politics.

First of all, the Choice Party has abandoned racism and street violence in traditional populist politics. Although these two points can provide cheap and effective political mobilization resources and means for emerging political parties, they are incompatible with the political norms of modern civilized society.

On the issue of treating refugees, choosing the party does not require completely rejecting refugees, but only means providing protection for real refugees and saying "no" to economic immigrants. This has no obvious contradiction with Merkel's government, at least literally. It can be said that the selection of the political party version is stricter than that of the Merkel government, or it is to control the entry of refugees through a technical means.

Secondly, street politics is not the focus of the party's activities. Although during the refugee crisis, some gatherings of selected party organizations also clashed with the police, the intensity and frequency were different from those of ordinary populist parties.

In addition, the Choice Party also tried to get rid of racism and rarely preached German nationalist discourse. It is worth noting that some supporters who choose the party have immigrant background, which is also because immigrants often engage in low-end industries in society, and rice bowls are most vulnerable to the impact of refugees. But "immigrants" or "outsiders" have no unified identity and memory. Even though they all came from the Middle East, Turks and Iranians didn't see the influx of Kurds and Arabs, let alone Russian immigrants who almost became diplomatic events with the German government in the refugee crisis. The weakening of the racial color by the Choice Party has also alleviated the moral pressure of its supporters to some extent-after all, after years of democratic political development, racism has a very negative impression in the hearts of ordinary Germans.

Unlike the populist images of "skinheads" and "lower middle class" in the past, the leader of the party, Frauke Petry, who looks like the French actress Juliette Binoche, studied in Britain and obtained a doctorate in chemistry from the famous German University of G? ttingen. Before that, she was an entrepreneur.

Faced with many variables

The long-standing party political atmosphere in Germany also provides the soil for choosing the rise of the party. Different from the mature two-party parliamentary system in Britain and the semi-presidential system under two rounds of voting in France, Germany is probably the purest parliamentary multi-party system-any political party can occupy a seat in the Bundestag as long as it crosses the threshold of 5% and has room to express its opinions on a series of issues. In addition, the positions of prime minister and minister are allocated by the political parties in the ruling Coalition through consultation, and there will be no "winner takes all" phenomenon.

The advantage of this is that the relationship between political parties is relatively harmonious and the political confrontation is relatively mild. In the German Bundestag, there are few scenes where the British House of Commons quarrels and heckles like a vegetable market. But the problem it brings is that after repeated games, the positions of various political parties are relatively solidified, the opposition is not very strong, and the policy preferences are gradually converging. Once voters are dissatisfied with the current policy, there may be no opposition channels. A German netizen once commented: "Germany is actually a one-party dictatorship. This party is called the Black, Red, Green and Red Party (different colors represent different political parties in the parliament)".

Polls after the three-state elections show that most voters who support the choice of the party have expressed their dilemma of not choosing other political parties. At the same time, in addition to the refugee policy, the Choice Party has also formulated traditional conservative policies, such as tax reduction, traditional family values, and protection of cultural traditions, in order to actively attract the votes of moderate conservative voters in the context of the Conservative Party's left leaning.

The initial victory of the Choice Party was only in backward eastern Germany, but now it is gaining momentum in western states. However, although it has become a big winner in local elections, whether it can achieve further development in the future also faces many variables.

The most important thing is the construction of the political ability of the party itself. The Choice Party is thriving because of the refugee crisis, but it is also likely to be trapped in a single topic of the refugee crisis-once the current government makes major adjustments to the refugee crisis policy or the crisis is alleviated, the social foundation of the Choice Party will face a dilemma. At present, the high vote rate of choosing the party is the antagonistic vent of some Germans to Merkel's refugee policy, not from the ruling ability of choosing the party and the construction of political party organizations. How to improve these in the future is a major and long-term test for choosing the party.

At the same time, voters who stand together because of their opposition to Merkel's refugee crisis often have different demands on other social and economic issues. How to deal with internal relations is another major issue in party selection.

In addition, it is not easy to choose the development of the party in the most important state in Germany. For example, whether it can make a breakthrough in other states, especially Bavaria, is also related to the future of the party. Bavaria is one of the largest states in Germany in economy, population and area. Its politics has long been dominated by CDU's sister party, CSU, which played the most crucial role in this refugee crisis. Therefore, voters in Bavaria have relatively good channels to express their dissatisfaction with the current government's refugee policy, and may not be moved by choosing the party.

Like other right-wing populist parties in Europe today, the Choice Party has largely revised the political resources and mobilization methods of traditional populism, making it more suitable for the political environment of 2 1 century. At the same time, we actively use the "wind direction" brought by political events and the "democratic deficit" and external shocks in European political development to gain political interests. Just like its name "German Alternative Choice Party", it also represents "another kind of populism" to a great extent.