Why do many people say that Shenzhen has been abandoned by Hong Kong, Zhuhai and Macao in Greater Bay Area?

Although the debate on whether the SAR is special has been artificially stopped, the subsequent impact should not be underestimated. It's like deep-rooted rheumatic pain. Every time it is wet and cold, it will break out.

During the period of 1997, Hong Kong returned to China. It seems that one of the special reasons of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone-taking care of Hong Kong's return-is no longer a reason. So, where will Shenzhen go after the return of Hong Kong? Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of Shenzhen? Are you coming or going to Shenzhen? The so-called "Shenzhen Doctrine" consciousness and Shenzhen people's rational thinking about Shenzhen's fate began at this time. 1997 Jin Xinyi, who came to Shenzhen in June, later wrote a long online article, "Shenzhen, are you coming or leaving? ",accompanied by the famous online article" Shenzhen, who abandoned you? The author Jane holds an "optimistic" and "pessimistic" attitude, arguing for each other's "black and white face" for a long time. Lao Heng, who also came to Shenzhen on 1997, founded the Interhoo website "Everything is related to Shenzhen" based on his persistence in the "Shenzhen issue", devoted himself to Shenzhen people and Shenzhen affairs, and thus brewed a "deep business theory". "Shenzhen doctrine", Luoyang paper was expensive for a while.

It seems that just as the prosperity of Shenzhen fades, Shanghai Pudong is making its debut. The great contrast has aroused people's deep thinking and fierce debate.

200 1 Beijing youth daily reporter Tang published "Beijing-Shanghai-Guangzhou-Shenzhen, who is China's future" economic capital? " In an instant, the report turned the comparison between cities with rain and bananas into a storm of urban debate. The article points out that "Pearl River Tiger" lost to "Yangtze River Dragon", and China's economic center of gravity is moving northward to Shanghai and Beijing. The urban competition in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen can no longer be suppressed or hidden, and has become open and white-hot.

On June 165438+1October16, 2002, 28-year-old Qin published a long article "Shenzhen, Who Abandoned You" on People's Network "Powerful Country Forum" and Xinhuanet "Development Forum" respectively. This article, like a deep-water bomb, set off the collective mood of a city, which not only spread from the internet to the people, but also caused heated discussions among government officials and public responses from administrative officials.

From the perspective of the people, the author issued a "prosperity warning" that Shenzhen is facing decline through the collection and analysis of information, and pushed a "hidden topic" that everyone knows well, but everyone is not convenient to say.

In early 2003, Southern Metropolis Daily published "Shenzhen, have you been abandoned?" Large-scale planning reports have aroused great repercussions in Shenzhen, Guangdong and even the whole country. Sina, Sohu, Shenzhen hotline and other websites, Phoenix Satellite TV and other media have followed suit, and the fate and future of Shenzhen have received unprecedented attention.

At the beginning of 2003, Yu Youjun, then the mayor of Shenzhen, held an equal dialogue with "I am crazy about Iraq" for more than two hours through the Southern Metropolis Daily. Later, the State Council's research group met with "I am crazy about Iraq" again, and listened carefully to the opinions and voices from the people.

The background and motivation of "abandonment theory" are:

Before the 1990s, Shenzhen and its surrounding Pearl River Delta were once hot spots where talents from all walks of life rushed in, which led to the resentment of "peacocks flying southeast" in central and western provinces and cities.

On September 16, 2002, Ping An Insurance announced in Shanghai that it would invest 2 billion yuan to build Ping An Financial Building in Lujiazui Financial and Trade Zone, Pudong, Shanghai. It sounds like Shenzhen enterprises are expanding northward, but according to industry sources, the core business departments of Ping An Insurance have basically moved to Shanghai, including the Group Investment Management Center, which recently moved out. Ping An Insurance has lost its shell-the company has actually moved to Shanghai. June 5438+1October 65438+February 2002, ZTE and Huawei, two high-tech enterprises developed in Shenzhen, also plan to move their headquarters to Shanghai.

More shocking news followed. Some media disclosed that the relocation of China Merchants Bank to Shanghai is being fully demonstrated. In addition, CITIC Securities plans to move back to Beijing, and Hantang Securities established in Shenzhen has moved to Shanghai. Wal-Mart, the world's top 500, will move its purchasing headquarters from Shenzhen to Shanghai in the future.

At the same time, talents from all walks of life also follow the trend and look to the Yangtze River Delta region. A survey of college students' employment intention shows that Shanghai and Beijing are the most attractive cities in college students' minds, with 32.37% of college students taking Shanghai as their first employment goal, followed by Beijing with 27.67% and Shenzhen with 12. 13%. More and more outstanding enterprises and talents will look to Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and other places. In this 2 1 century struggle for economic discourse and for high-level talents, Shenzhen has obviously fallen behind. Without policy advantages and subject to economic and geographical conditions, this disadvantage of Shenzhen is becoming more and more obvious in the competition.

After the opening of the "headline", I asked directly, "Why am I always injured in the dispute between Shenzhen and Shanghai?" For example, in the financial industry, the main board market was merged into the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange lost the right to issue new shares, but the GEM promised to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was delayed. The gold exchange opened in Shanghai, but the Shenzhen Futures Exchange was merged.

Shenzhen used to be the forefront of China's reform and opening up, the most dynamic city in China, a special economic zone that has created many miracles, and a radiant young city. Now it seems to have been eclipsed.

The "abandonment theory" is a folk response to the "special zone theory". A little sad, a little angry, a little black humor, a little ironic, but never broken cans, but full of passion and love for "Shenzhen doctrine." This is something that Shenzhen people have never encountered in the 1980s and 1990s. The right to speak in Shenzhen is no longer monopolized. The networked and popular Shenzhen discourse has its own sentence patterns, its own verification methods, and its own unique mode of influencing cities, businesses and society.

Abandonment theory is also like a "curse", which torments all kinds of people from time to time and gets different answers. It hasn't been broken for years. The "abandonment theory" comes from the people, and the best response so far comes from the people.

On August 22, 2003, Jin Xinyi wrote a longer online article, "Has the Pearl River Delta lost its competitiveness? The decade after 1992 was recognized as the decade of Shanghai's re-emergence in China. The biggest driving forces in this rising process are: the central government and people's efforts to shape the image of Shanghai as "China's leading economic city", the enthusiasm of Taiwan Province IT industry for Shanghai, and the attachment mentality of multinational companies to Shanghai's old dreams. Unfortunately, the "Shanghai Movement" was accompanied by the "Demonizing the Pearl River Delta Movement", which caused great damage to the international and domestic image of the Greater Pearl River Delta region.

This paper analyzes the "God-making" deficiency of the Shanghai movement and the exaggeration of demonizing the Pearl River Delta movement, and quotes paul krugman's "Confidence Theory" to warn Shenzhen people not to lose themselves and lose confidence in the noise of Shanghai propaganda. Paul krugman said in the book "The Age of Declining Expectations" that economic growth often depends on people's psychological expectations. If people expect economic prosperity, then everyone will increase consumption and investment, and the economy will really prosper; If everyone expects the economy to decline, then everyone will reduce consumption and investment, and then the economic recession will really come.

The same is true of a city. In many cases, the confidence of citizens is crucial to development. Everyone is complaining, and this disappointment and complaint will infect each other, and confidence in the city will gradually fade away. Finally, this city really has no future.

Based on detailed information, opinions and suggestions, this paper analyzes the deficiency, necessity, possibility, strategy, path, vision, blueprint, operation methods and steps of Pearl River Delta integration, and shows the charm of folk think tanks. This paper suggests using the concept of "Guangdong-Hong Kong Corridor" instead of "Hong Kong-centered theory" or "Guangzhou-centered theory" to eliminate the dispute over the leading position of the Pearl River Delta. Yan Xiaopei, then director of the Center for Urban and Regional Studies of Sun Yat-sen University, highly recognized this wisdom. Yan Xiaopei was later transferred to the vice mayor of Shenzhen, and Jin Xinyi joined her Zhi Gong Dang. Jin Xinyi's experience in participating in the administration of state affairs, from the members of Futian District CPPCC and Shenzhen CPPCC to the deputies of Shenzhen Municipal People's Congress, witnessed the influence of folk words and wisdom on urban public affairs, which is unique to Shanghai and owned by Shenzhen. Lieutenant Colonel Chen's "Abandonment Theory" said that the government is hard to hide and the people are unyielding, which led to a special investigation by the State Council's research group, which is unique in Shanghai and also exists in Shenzhen.

Who will get and abandon such a city?

06

Six questions: Can Lingnan bear the weight of commercial civilization?

The possible relocation of the headquarters of Ping An, China Merchants, ZTE, Huawei and other enterprises is an important symbol of the abandonment theory, so that every time Chen's abandonment theory fails, these enterprise headquarters are still guarding Shenzhen as a counter-evidence, but no one delves into it: Did the relocation of enterprises trigger the abandonment theory or deter the relocation of enterprises?

But it is an indisputable fact that "Guangdong enterprises moved to Shanghai" in history.

For thousands of years, the main stage of Chinese civilization has been in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin, and the Pearl River Basin has never entered the mainstream. Since the Ming and Qing Dynasties, with the rise of western commercial forces, coastal land first approached commerce, and Guangdong began to shift from the edge of agricultural civilization to the highland of commercial civilization. Guangzhou became the earliest and most prosperous commercial center in China's modern history. This is the first time that Guangdong businessmen have played the role of business leaders in the history of China. However, before the top spot was heated up, it was snatched away by Shanghai, which was only a younger brother at that time. With its geographical advantages, Shanghai jumped from a small Qingjiang county to a commercial center of China and even the world after the five ports were established.

A historical fact that has been ignored by many people is that the ancestors of Shanghai businessmen were not mainly Ningbo gangs or Jiangsu gangs, but Guangdong gangs. Modern Guangdong businessmen later became Shanghai businessmen. There are countless Cantonese people active in modern Shanghai. In Xiangshan County, Guangdong Province alone, there are Sun Yat-sen, Yung Wing, Tang, Xu Yuting, Xu Baoting, Tang, Tang Tingzhi, Tang Ruizhi, Tang Guotai, Mo Shiyang, Zheng Yizhi, Xu Weinan and other celebrities and comprador,,, Guo Kui, Guo and so on.

On the other hand, in Guangdong, the first silk control factory, the first weaving factory, the first shipyard, the first telecommunications bureau, the first bank, the first railway ... countless modern businesses became the first because of the participation of Guangdong businessmen, but when Shanghai came from behind, Guangzhou was devastated by a fire.

The first batch of people who opened their eyes to see the world, the first batch of people who went abroad to work and do business, the first batch of people who studied abroad, and the first batch of people who called for the establishment of a capitalist democratic country ... Guangdong people changed China as never before with their courage and actions of "being the first in the world", but in a short period of 100 years, Shanghai's creative achievements in business culture and business system could not be achieved by Guangzhou businessmen in a thousand years.

Since 1980s, history seems to be going through another cycle. Since the reform and opening up in Shenzhen, Guangdong, thousands of people have gone south to Shenzhen. In the early days of reform and opening up, they worked hard to create well-known enterprises in Shenzhen, such as Ping An, China Merchants, ZTE and Huawei. Now it is possible to move northward to Shanghai because of the development of Pudong! It is precisely because the "abandonment theory" directly reveals this possibility that it has aroused people's voices and prompted people to ponder: Will the skirt of the goddess of modern commercial civilization fall in Shanghai after sweeping Guangdong? Does the Pearl River Delta naturally not have the conditions to produce a great commercial city? Is Guangzhou and Shenzhen just a short-lived commercial spectacle under the background of special policies? Does Lingnan have the natural conditions to become a big commercial center? Should thousands of elites continue to cross the south or return to the north?

In order to answer these questions, Interhoo Laoheng began to systematically study the problem of "deep quotient" and published the first monograph on "deep quotient" in 2006.

In the process of combing China's commercial history and commercial history, Lao Heng noticed that Sima Qian in Historical Records and Biographies of Huo Zhi had a wonderful description of why Chu Yuedi was "not a commercial office":

"Chu is sparsely populated, rice and fish are cultivated, or water and fire are cultivated, and the fruit is insufficient. Fertile terrain, no hunger, let you drag out an ignoble existence, no accumulation will become poor. So south of Jianghuai, there are no people who are frozen and hungry, and there are no homes for Qian Qian's ten million daughters. To the north of Isis, there should be five grains, Sang Ma and six livestock, with less land and more people. Several people have been hurt by floods, and people are good at livestock storage. Therefore, Qin, Xia, Liang and Lu are all good at agriculture and attach importance to the people. Three rivers, ten thousand, and merchants. Qi and Zhao are clever and have a soft spot for machines. Swallows and livestock are silkworms. "

Tai Shigong means: South of Jianghuai and Chu Yue, the natural conditions are better, people do not plow or weave, they are not hungry or cold, and business is even more unnecessary. North of Yisi, natural and man-made disasters, we should always plan ahead, step up farming and develop agriculture. Sericulture and weaving to develop industry; Take advantage of opportunities to develop business.

Lingnan is south of Jianghuai and south of Chu Yue, which was called Nanyue in ancient times. Rich vegetation and lush aquatic plants are better than Jiangnan, which is not a successful place for business. Later, the commercial development of Jiangnan was related to the over-exploitation of the north and the lack of grain and grass resources. Coupled with frequent wars, Chu Jun crossed south and gave birth to Jiangnan. The grain, cotton and silk tea in the south of the Yangtze River supplied a large amount of demand in the north and became commodities, so intensive production and long-distance trafficking began. This is the beginning of Jiangnan's commercial prosperity.

Lingnan, on the other hand, could not save the north with its materials. The steep Nanling mountains are the intestinal obstruction of north-south traffic. The products of South Vietnam cannot be transported to the north on a large scale through the ancient land transportation system or natural water system. Only strange and light things such as pearls, agates, ivory, spices and overseas utensils can cross the mountains and reach the North Courtyard, win the favor of princes and nobles and earn valuable returns. The reason why Guangzhou has become an open foreign trade port in China for two thousand years is that it can not only shield foreign influences, but also pay tribute to foreign countries.

It is this uninterrupted connection that has enabled western commercial civilization to test the water in Guangzhou, gain a foothold in Macau and Hong Kong, and profoundly influenced the trend and process of modern and even contemporary China history. This is a great difference between Guangzhou commercial port and ancient Ningbo commercial port and ancient Quanzhou commercial port.

When the agricultural tradition was too heavy for new commercial seedlings to germinate at home, Guangdong became a branch of grafting foreign commercial civilization, which was unexpected by Tai Shigong.

Unlike the wealth of Huizhou merchants from domestic trade, the wealth of Guangdong merchants comes from international trade; Unlike the wealth of Shanxi merchants from the interior of Europe and Asia, the wealth of Guangdong merchants comes from the vast ocean.

As early as the early years of the Western Han Dynasty, Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty sent envoys to sail the fleet from Guangzhou to the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, passing through Southeast Asia, crossing the Bay of Bengal, reaching the southeast of the Indian Peninsula and returning to Ceylon (now Sri Lanka).

This route was opened during the reign of Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty, marking the beginning of the Maritime Silk Road. After the expansion in Wei and Jin Dynasties, the Maritime Silk Road, which started in Guangzhou, flourished unprecedentedly in Sui, Tang and Song Dynasties. At that time, there were six regular routes between Guangzhou, Nanyang and Persian Gulf. The most famous one was called "Guangzhou Tonghai Island": it set sail from Guangzhou, passed through Vietnam Sea, Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, East Africa and Europe, and passed through more than 100 countries and regions, with a total length of 14000 km, which was the longest international route in the world at that time.

During the prosperous Tang Dynasty, 1 1 overseas merchant ships arrived in Guangzhou every day, with more than 4,000 ships a year. Each ship carries 200 people, and nearly 800 thousand businessmen arrive in Guangzhou every year. Liu Yuxi, a poet, therefore lamented: "Even the sky is quiet and whales are resting, and the sails reflecting the sun are full of treasures." During the Song and Yuan Dynasties, Italian traveler Adolik said, "There are not as many ships in Italy as in this city." .

In the Ming and Qing dynasties, the sea was banned, leaving only a "one-stop trade" in Guangzhou, and the official-led foreign trade reached its peak, with the emergence of "thirteen lines" of wealth. At that time, Guangzhou was "like mountains, flowers like birds, the sea like the sea, birds and flowers, spending tens of millions a day, having no worries about food and clothing, singing and dancing, many times more than Qinhuai". Jiaqing 10, only the government pays taxes, reaching 1, 64 1, 97 1. At that time, the annual income of the Qing government was only 80 million. Guangzhou has become a "Tianzi Nanku" because of its overseas trade. Guangdong businessmen are good at dancing with long sleeves and are profitable. Wu Bingjian, the richest man in thirteen banks, has a personal wealth of 26 million taels, accounting for almost one-third of the national treasury income. He not only owns a lot of real estate, real estate, tea hills, shops and huge funds in China, but also invests in American railways, securities trading and insurance business.

In the past, the exact wealth obtained by Guangdong businessmen from overseas trade has been impossible to verify. We can calculate the wealth of these thirteen Hong merchants: most of them live in Kansai, Guangzhou. There are more than 800 "Kansai Houses" in history, and there are still dozens. Through the ostentation and extravagance of the mansion, we can calculate the wealth of the owner, and so on. It is not difficult to imagine the wealth strength of Shang Hong. The folk "sailing trade" that is not controlled by the government and regarded as "smuggling" cannot be simply estimated.

In fact, during the Wanli period of the Ming Dynasty, Cantonese people jointly built ships, formed business gangs and ventured out to sea. This is the beginning of the real awakening and rise of Guangdong businessmen as a unique business gang, not just a means of commercial monopoly by the imperial court. Since then, "people from Fujian and Guangdong have been driving mountain thieves and carrying smuggled goods, and hundreds of people have traveled to and from Japan in batches." These unofficial businessmen are not only Guangfu businessmen on the west bank of the Pearl River Estuary near Macao, but also Chapman in eastern Guangdong. They not only stick to their homeland, but also often take the initiative to attack: Southeast Asia such as Singapore and Matai, North and South America, Oceania and so on. , are the commercial territory of Guangdong businessmen with a long history. Today, Kaiping Diaolou, Meixi Archway, Chikan Mainland Commercial Street and Chenghai Merchants' Former Residence, which have become cultural heritages, record the arduous course and brilliant achievements of modern Guangdong businessmen in expanding their business overseas. In a purely economic sense, this achievement is far greater than the "thirteen lines" monopolized by the government, and in a social sense, it is beyond the reach of feudal commercial banks.

It is precisely because commercial interests are more powerful than imperial power that valuing business over officials has become a common practice in Lingnan. In fact, Huizhou merchants value officials and despise businesses; Shanxi merchants take business too seriously, making people unable to relax; It is really painful for businessmen in Jiangsu and Zhejiang to study for an official or go to sea to do business. Only Fujian people and Guangdong people take business for granted, and Guangdong people especially feel that it is natural and indisputable.

Although Guangzhou is the only commercial port in the world that has maintained its prosperity in 2000, people in the Central Plains have really noticed that Cantonese people are still very modern, even though the merchants in Guangzhou's "Thirteen Lines" have long been "the richest businessmen in the world since 1000 years ago". The Cantonese personages, represented by Kang Youwei, Liang Qichao, Sun Yat-sen, Zheng,, and, can be said to have pushed the trend of modern China. At first glance, this trend seems to be nothing more than getting rid of the old and innovating, promoting the advantages and eliminating the disadvantages, and opening Xiangyang. Finally, it points to the modern commercial civilization which is quite different from the traditional Chinese agricultural civilization temperament model. It seems that all the wisdom and means of Central Plains culture can't cope with the annoying spoiler of these ugly and inarticulate Cantonese. The reason is nothing more than that Guangdong people hold a magic wand: business, business for profit, business for power, business for new words, business for political reform.

Guangdong people attach importance to business, but it is doubtful whether Guangdong can become the center of commercial civilization.

Obviously, Guangzhou, especially Shenzhen, will not be the central city of agricultural civilization in China. For example, Chang 'an, Luoyang and Kaifeng, for example, Beijing and Nanjing are the centers of plains, chariots and horses, and ships, and the imperial power is in full swing. Shenzhen is not such a city. Shenzhen is a corner of the mountain and a corner of the sea. The waves are faint in front and the mountains are stacked behind. Dense vegetation and heavy miasma. Knives can't be repaired and fires can't be planted. It has been uncivilized for thousands of years.

Shenzhen will not become the central city of modern industry and commerce. Modern ships and trains can't conquer the wildness of Lingnan. At that time, the tonnage of ships was still small, so they could go directly to inland waterways; At that time, trains and cars could only travel on flat ground. Shanghai, with its low-lying terrain, vertical and horizontal rivers and its geographical location near the sea, has become the best choice for a modern industrial and commercial center city. Guangzhou and Hong Kong, although convenient by rivers and seas, have no convenient hinterland. Even if they led the modern industrial and commercial civilization, they could not be the first to arrive. Therefore, most Lingnan businessmen moved to Shanghai one after another.

Today's technical level has completely broken through the limitations of mountain and sea geography. Viaduct, expressway, high-speed rail, the higher the mountain, the flatter it is; Civil planes have narrowed the distance between Lingnan and North China, and the vast South China Sea has become an inner lake in South China. The widespread use of air conditioners makes the subtropical climate in Lingnan no longer sultry. Modern architectural technology makes life near mountains and seas pleasant; Large-scale container transportation at sea makes the inland waterway like Huangpu River look like a decoration, while natural ports like Yantian Port and Victoria Port have become the basis for a world-class commercial city to open ports and build ports. Grain is no longer the whole food of modern life. The rich fruits and vegetables in Lingnan and Southeast Asia and the rich fresh fish in the South China Sea are not only delicious for local people, but also the absolute advantage of new agriculture over traditional agriculture. The strip cities around the Pearl River Estuary are densely distributed, and there is no "pie-spreading" old city. ...

It is not only possible for the center of gravity of Chinese civilization to move southward, but also the general trend.

During the Han and Tang Dynasties, the Yellow River Basin was the absolute center of gravity. In the Song Dynasty, the center of gravity began to move south to the Yangtze River basin. Today, after long-term over-exploitation, North China and the Central Plains have dried up, vegetation is not long, water sources are exhausted, and sandstorms are raging, which has gradually become unsuitable for human habitation. Although the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are the land of plenty, the population density is too high and the agricultural development has been excessive. Coupled with industrial development, the pressure on the ecosystem will be even greater. Only eastern Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and other regions, close to mountains and seas, have a good climate, abundant sunshine and abundant rain; The development is late and the ecosystem is relatively complete; The coastal zone is long and narrow, similar to California in the western United States, and has an ideal living environment for the rich. Multi-ethnic, multi-ethnic, multi-ideological, multi-cultural and perennial ... Since the middle and late 20th century, the vitality and potential of the surrounding areas of the South China Sea have been confirmed.

It is not only attaching importance to the business tradition and new industrial and commercial technology, but also the tolerance of Guangdong people to western culture and mainland immigrants in terms of system and culture, which finally produced good results. The British moved the whole western business system to Hong Kong. From the beginning, Shenzhen businessmen had an ideal, a cultural attempt and a desire for innovation. The shortcomings of these traditional Cantonese businessmen were fully compensated by outsiders and latecomers. For this reason, the new Cantonese businessmen can completely undertake the continued southward shift of the center of gravity of Chinese civilization, and quietly and successfully implant commercial genes into the former agricultural civilization matrix. We will all witness this historic feat.