What is the root cause of the decline of Northeast China?

The rise and fall of China's fulcrum in Northeast Asia

China is first and foremost an East Asian country. If it cannot dominate the East Asian order, then China's construction in Africa and its trade with Europe will be fragile. In China's strategy of promoting regional cooperation in Northeast Asia, further promoting East Asian integration, and rejecting foreign powers' intervention, a healthy developing Northeast must be the mainstay.

The development of modern Northeast China can be divided into four periods:

Before the 182s, it was the initial period of the Northeast economy;

from the 192s to the 195s, the Northeast entered a period of growth, driven by the feudal warlords, Japanese aggression and Soviet aid.

From 196s to 198s, with the deterioration of Sino-Soviet relations, the Northeast continued to lose blood in the third-line strategy, and the brain drain was serious, which gradually faded out of people's sight.

In the 199s, Northeast China entered a period of recession, and the economic growth rate at the bottom often became a hot topic in China.

The state's rescue of the Northeast is not without action. However, after experiencing relative stability in the first decade of this century, the economy of the Northeast has fallen off a cliff again in recent years. Investment in Northeast China always seems to lack appropriate strategic objectives, and eventually it becomes a disguised form of poverty alleviation, which is of no benefit to shaping a healthy industry.

The poor industrial situation is directly reflected in the population who voted with their feet:

During the period of Zhang Zuolin's rule and Japanese full-scale invasion of China, the Northeast ushered in two immigration peaks due to the needs of industrial construction and resource development. By 1945, when Japan surrendered, the population of Northeast China had exceeded 4 million, which was 13.5 times higher than that in 184. A large number of laborers promoted Northeast China to become a pearl in Asia.

However, since the wave of laid-off workers in the 199s, the population in Northeast China has fallen into negative growth. According to the results of the census, there were 44, people moving out of Northeast China in the 199s, and the net migration in the first decade of this century reached 2.191 million people.

compared with the floating population in other parts of the country, the floating population in northeast China has the following characteristics:

1. The proportion of non-agricultural population is large, accounting for 43% of the migrant population;

2.? Highly educated, with a college degree or above accounting for 25%;

3.? The emigration population covers all ages, not only the post-8s generation with accumulated career accounts for a high proportion, but also the middle-aged and elderly people over 45 years old are willing to emigrate even more than the post-9s generation who have just worked for a few years.

4.? Although the proportion of women who moved out of the population was slightly lower than that of men, they stayed longer in the place where they moved in.

because of relatively rich social experience (non-agricultural population), high academic qualifications and a certain economic foundation (average age), it means that the migrants from Northeast China are more likely to settle in cities such as Beishangguang than other population export areas. Their outflow has caused serious blood loss in Northeast China, but it has improved the labor quality in developed areas.

Northeast China in the quadruple predicament

There are many reasons for the depression of Northeast China. Apart from the cliché system and the cultural reasons for adding crimes, people should focus on a more realistic level:

1. The deterioration of external geopolitical environment

The rise of Northeast China is essentially the result of Japan and Russia entering Asia through the road. After Japan's defeat and Sino-Soviet friendship, the development of Northeast China has obviously slowed down compared with other parts of China.

After the end of the Cold War, the northeast is surrounded by Russia with shock therapy, Japan with a burst bubble economy, North Korea with sanctions and Mongolia trapped inland. The only one with economic vitality around is South Korea. However, on the one hand, South Korea has a small size, on the other hand, the situation on the peninsula affects the continuity of Sino-Korean relations, and South Korea's economic stimulus to the Northeast is limited after all.

the southeast coast, which was restricted in the planned economy era, became an advantageous area by virtue of its proximity to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. On the one hand, light industry in these areas gradually radiated to Southeast Asia, on the other hand, they constantly absorbed mainland talents under the relaxed household registration policy, and developed rapidly under the effect of Matthew effect.

2. Lack of grass-roots autonomy tradition

Unlike the spontaneous migration of "Huguang filling Sichuan", the immigrant society in Northeast China was formed under the impetus of colonialism and the intervention of administrative power.

The political changes have further aggravated this trend:

Zhang Zuolin, a warlord who was born as a horse thief, turned a blind eye to bandits from all walks of life in the countryside;

In order to eliminate the anti-Japanese armed forces, Japan forced more than 5 million farmers to move into "group tribes" and set their homes on fire to establish a "no man's land";

the grass-roots party building and administrative institutions in new China have further dispelled the grass-roots authority nationwide.

This has resulted in the lack of clan and squire grass-roots self-governing class in Northeast China, and they often get lost in individual heroism. The so-called "Northeasters are all underworld", but in the end, they just became the thugs of the local evil forces.

Relatively speaking, southern clans with deep clan tradition have the opportunity to establish family-run private enterprises, find the cheapest and reliable human resources in the first wave of reform and opening up, and complete the original accumulation.

3. High urbanization becomes a burden

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics in 216, except for municipalities directly under the central government, Liaoning has the urbanization rate second only to Guangdong, and Heilongjiang and Jilin have also entered the top ten in the country. Liaoning is 2 percentage points higher than its neighbor Hebei.

However, such a high level of urbanization actually limits the possibility of growth in Northeast China. If we turn our eyes to the more backward central and western regions, we can see the difference.

China Development and Reform Commission will promote the urbanization of "three hundred million people" in the future, that is, by 22, about 1 million qualified and willing agricultural transfer population will be settled in various cities and towns; By intensifying the transformation of shanty towns and villages in cities, about 1 million permanent residents living in shanty towns and villages in cities will improve their living conditions; Guide 1 million people to realize the nearest urbanization in the central and western regions.

a considerable part of the first "1 million people" and the third "1 million people" are digested by the central and western regions, which will bring enough GDP growth to the relevant regions. The northeast, which is already saturated with cities, does not have this space. In poor cities, only state-owned assets can be sold, but there is no ability to increase production. This is the real reason why investment can't pass Shanhaiguan.

4. Exhaustion of natural resources

The once abundant natural resources such as coal, iron, oil and forest in Northeast China have been almost exhausted since 199s after years of large-scale exploitation and development.

taking Heilongjiang province as an example, the average service life of the four state-owned coal mines, Hegang, Jixi, Shuangyashan and Qitaihe, has been 7 years, 16 of the 33 main mines have dried up, and the mining costs of the remaining mines are also rising.

The available resources of the forest industry system are only 19 million cubic meters, which is 97.3% lower than that in the early days of the People's Republic of China. Two thirds of the 4 provincial forestry bureaus have no forests to exploit. The recoverable reserves of Daqing Oilfield are only 3%, and the annual output is expected to drop to 2 million tons in 22.

In fact, these areas are facing difficulties similar to those in Shanxi.

caught in the four dilemmas, it seems difficult for Northeast China to extricate itself. Illness rushed to the hospital, and prescriptions poured in from all directions gave their own diagnosis of the current situation in Northeast China. But will these measures really work?

first of all, tourism is the easiest thing to think of in industrial upgrading.

It is true that tourism promotes all industries. However, in view of the fact that the historical and cultural heritage of Northeast China is far less than that of Central Plains, the natural scenery is relatively simple, and the climate is so cold, it is not easy to attract southern tourists to visit.

In addition, after the exposure of "Cheating in Snow Country" and Yabuli incident, some public opinion thinks that the tourism environment in Northeast China is very bad, which further affects the reputation of the tourism industry in Northeast China.

trying to take tourism as the pillar industry can only quench thirst by drinking poison, and those countries and regions that rely too much on tourism will never have the motivation to upgrade their industries and improve the quality of their population.

What about the prescriptions for light industry transformation prescribed by economists such as Lin Yifu?

China's heavy industry center is true in the northeast, but the pioneers of light industry are southern areas such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong. It is not impossible for heavy industry equipment and industrial workers to transform into light industry, but it requires high transformation costs, and the Northeast economy, which has been struggling to support, lacks confidence to bear these costs.

and even if the transformation is successful, the best result will only be guided by the southern provinces. The proud northeast obviously doesn't want to be a follower.

To stop the decline and even revive the Northeast economy, we must rely on comparative advantages and open up the situation through the transformation of agriculture and heavy industry.

in agriculture, we should transform traditional agriculture, develop organic agriculture in areas with good natural conditions, and focus on developing genetically modified agriculture.

The cultivated land in Northeast China is mainly plain, Jilin is known as the world golden corn belt, and Heilongjiang is one of the only four black soil belts in the world. Excellent natural conditions make Northeast China the main grain and meat producing area in China. The cultivated land area in Northeast China is 17.6% of the whole country, and the per capita cultivated land is 3.3 times of the national average, so the agricultural potential is still limitless.

relying on high-quality agricultural land, using organic agriculture to earn high profits in domestic big cities and countries such as Japan and South Korea has broad prospects. High-yield transgenic crops with core patents can further improve China's food security and contain food importing countries, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone.

in terms of heavy industry, we will promote the formation of scale effect in industries with strong competitiveness such as transportation equipment manufacturing, food manufacturing and pharmaceutical manufacturing, and vigorously develop the military industry.

General Su Yu once said, "The victory of Huaihai Campaign is thanks to the carts of Shandong villagers and the big shells of Dalian!"

indeed, after a hundred years of development before the founding of the People's Republic of China, the Northeast has accumulated a large number of technical talents and industrial equipment. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, these industrial bases are the leading heavy industry bases in China, combining the achievements of Soviet aid bonus and the independent innovation of the Northeast people. This is an excellent basic condition for military production.

Today, China has become the third largest arms exporter in the world after the United States and Russia. Compared with other industries, the military industry not only has great benefits, but also directly affects the survival of a country's political power. If the Northeast can make full use of the generally high population quality of the old industrial bases, it will not only save itself, but also promote China's arms sales to move from developing countries to developed countries.

The problem in Northeast China is far more than just a question of human nature or system. Perhaps the long-term influence left by the geography and history of Northeast China is the reason for the gradual decline of Northeast China.

However, the location of Northeast Asia crossroads in the northeast remains unchanged, and cooperation with neighboring countries is still feasible; The human resource base in Northeast China is still high enough to support a reasonable transformation. The fertile land and industrial base in Northeast China are still strong enough to effectively transform resources. Stopping the decline is not as impossible as imagined.

the key is how to find the right direction of investment, aiming at developing industries, rather than filling the bottomless pit with money. Perhaps, when the resources, population and capital of Northeast China reach a balance point, people will find that the vitality of Northeast China reappears.